Resilient Systems Engineering

1. Resilient Systems Engineering Prepared for INCOSE_IL & Gordon Center for Systems Engineering at the TECHNION by Jack Ring CTO, Educe LLC Fellow, INCOSE

2. Resilient Systems Engineering Prepared for INCOSE_IL & Gordon Center for Systems Engineering at the TECHNION by Jack Ring CTO, Educe LLC Fellow, INCOSE

3. You don’t know Jack? • 1957 – 2010. • System Test & Evaluation. • System Engineering. • Object technology, 1971. • Action research, intelligent enterprises. • Enterprise architect, Starshine Planet, world-wide youth education in mind, body, spirit, heath and wealth. • Tutorials: INCOSE 1994, 2001, 2003, 2005, IL 2005. • Member: INCOSE (Fellow), ISSS, IEEE SMC, ACM, etc • Co-chair, INCOSE WG’s for • Autonomous Systems T&E, 2009 - • Motor Sports as learning environment, 2008 - • Intelligent Enterprises, 2002 – 2007 • Member, Kennen Technologies LLC, OntoPilot LLC, Educe LLC ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

4. In the next 45 minutes ---Me @ 50%, You @ 50% • Resilient SE. • Praxis for resilient systems. • Categories of resilient systems. • Essence of resilient systems. • Examples of resilient systems. ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

5. Resilient System Stress vs. Strain ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

6. Resilient: Replace circa 1920 Upper airplane lost one of its wheels. Gladys Ingles installing a replacement wheel in flight. With the replacement wheel strapped to her back she rides the wing of a rescue plane to the plane that lacks the wheel. She transfers from wing to wing. Expertly works herself down to the undercarriage only a few feet from a spinning prop.   She installs the wheel then stands on the wing of the repaired plane to a successful landing. http://www.oshkosh365.org/ok365_DiscussionBoardTopic.aspx?id=1235&boardid=147&forumid=180&topicid=5584

7. Current Views • S. Jackson - INCOSE Resilient Systems WG “…the capability of a system with specific characteristics before, during and after a disruption to absorb the disruption, recover to an acceptable level of performance, and sustain that level for an acceptable period of time.“ • R. Dove – INCOSE Systems Security Engineering WG “Sustaining system functionality in the face of intelligent determined attack requires self preservation capabilities that adapt and evolve with equal intelligence, determination, and strength of community.” • B. Sauser, et al: Internal failures. External disruptions. Brian Sauser, Mo MansouriMayada Omer, Using Systemigrams in Problem Definition: A Case Study in Maritime Resilience for Homeland ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

8. R E S I L I E N T O V E R R I D E M O D E 1 9 6 9

9. Current Views, con’t. • J. Fiksel – Dow Chemical Corp. “… the capacity to survive, adapt, and grow in the face of turbulent change – Key elements of resilience include capable employees, an agile supply chain, effective decision processes, and strong external relationships. ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

10. Resilient: Reflexive, circa 500 A.D.

11. M U L T I P A R T Y R E S I L I E N T D Y N A M I C S

12. Essence of Resilient Systems

13. e = entity = relation e e = ‘system’ e = ‘system’ (explicit) e e e = ‘system’ (implicit) e e e = ‘system’ (soft) e e Semiotics of Systems ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

14. e e = entity S R = relation e = behavior = π e e e = ‘system’ S = Stimulus, R = Response e = ‘system’ (explicit) e e e = ‘system’ (implicit) e e e = ‘system’ (soft) e e Semiotics of Systems System Does ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

15. e e = entity S R = relation e = behavior = π e e e = ‘system’ S = Stimulus, R = Response e = ‘system’ (explicit) e e e e Entity can contain a system e e = e = ‘system’ (implicit) e e e e e e e = ‘system’ (soft) e e e e e e e System of Systems (promulgates ambiguity) Semiotics of Systems System Does ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

16. Resilient System Meta-model GS System A Goal Action Triggers Energy Competency Situation Closure, G-S INPUTS Request Resources Time OUTPUTS Response Status Reports Learning Disturbances Measures Goal Attainment Sensitivity to Disturbance Stability Limits Culture Business Climate Competing Goals Situation ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

17. Resilient System Meta-model GS System A Goal Action Triggers Energy Competency Situation Closure, G-S INPUTS Request Resources Time OUTPUTS Response Status Reports Learning Disturbances Measures Goal Attainment Sensitivity to Disturbance Stability Limits Culture Business Climate Competing Goals Situation ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

18. Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony B Step Change Goal A Time ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

19. Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony B Step Change Goal Enterprise Response A Time ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

20. Next Change Closure Metrics Range, Response time, Accuracy, Parsimony B Step Change Goal Enterprise Response A Time ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

21. Situation Out In Resilient Systems Example Categories Pr = Problem Space Val = Value Space S = Stimulus R = Response Sit = Situation π= System Transfer Function ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

22. Situation Value Space Problem Space Out In Class Type Class f(t) Type f(t) Resilient Systems Example Categories Pr = Problem Space Val = Value Space S = Stimulus R = Response Sit = Situation π= System Transfer Function ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

23. Situation Value Space Problem Space Out In π Class Type Class Value f(t) Type Type f(t) Class Resilient Systems Example Categories Pr = Problem Space Val = Value Space S = Stimulus R = Response Sit = Situation π= System Transfer Function ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

24. Situation Value Space Problem Space Out In π Class Type Class Value f(t) Type Type f(t) Class Resilient Systems Example Categories π = f(k) = ballistic π = f(O) = governor π = f(I) = compensator π = f(π) = self-test, auto repair π = f(Sit, O) = homeostatic π = f(Val) = goal-seeking π = f(Pr) = self-organizing π = f(Pr, Val) = autopoietic π = f(all) = autocatalytic Pr = Problem Space Val = Value Space S = Stimulus R = Response Sit = Situation π= System Transfer Function ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

25. Resilient System Engineering Praxis ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

26. System Context System 1. The Essence of Creating Systems Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

27. System Context System Problem System; Content, Process, Behavior 1. Problem Suppression System 2. The Essence of Creating Systems Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

28. System Context System Problem System; Content, Process, Behavior 1. Problem Suppression System 2. 3. Problem Suppression System: Content The Essence of Creating Systems Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

29. System Context System Problem System; Content, Process, Behavior 1. Problem Suppression System 2. 3. Problem Suppression System: Content t2 Problem Suppression System: Content, Process, Behavior 4. t3 t1 The Essence of Creating Systems Adapted from Science of Generic Design, John Warfield ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

30. Low Med High Extent Variety Ambiguity ‘Wicked’ Problems Problematic Situation Dimensions Ring, J., Modeling a Systems Engineering Enterprise, 2007 Conference on SE Research, Hoboken, NJ State-determined Stochastic Non-deterministic Extent: # of cognates Variety: # of unique cognates, both semiotic and temporal Ambiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

31. Low Med High Extent Variety Ambiguity ‘Wicked’ Problems Problematic Situation Dimensions Ring, J., Modeling a Systems Engineering Enterprise, 2007 Conference on SE Research, Hoboken, NJ State-determined Stochastic Non-deterministic MTTE(K) = 10 yr 1 yr 0.1 yr Extent: # of cognates Variety: # of unique cognates, both semiotic and temporal Ambiguity: fog, conflicting data, cognitive overload MTTE = Mean Time To Emergence, K = Knowledge ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

32. Extent, Variety, Ambiguity

33. System Engineering Contributions • Language the Project • Model the Intended System (including Closure > Variety & Ambiguity) • Converge Creativity to (design) Closure System Engineering Engineering Of Systems ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

34. Worth of SE Contributions Problematic Situation Systems Engineering Engineering Of Systems M(PSys) SCI = X Error = Φ M(PSS) SCI = X/K1 Error = Φ/K2 Staley, S. M. 1995, “Complexity Measurements in System Design” in Integrated Design and Process Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161 ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

35. Worth of SE Contributions Problematic Situation Systems Engineering Engineering Of Systems M(PSys) SCI = X Error = Φ M(PSS) SCI = X/K1 Error = Φ/K2 e.g., Warfield’s Situation Complexity Index SCI = (N/7) (V/5) (K/10) = (1/350) NVK Where: N is Miller Index, V is Spreadthink index and K = DeMorgan index SCI > X(i) indicates M(PSS) Not Ready for Engineering (i) Staley, S. M. 1995, “Complexity Measurements in System Design” in Integrated Design and Process Technology, A. Ertes, et al, Editors, IDTP Volume 1, Austin, TX, 153-161 ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

36. ELSE, System of Systems! 090112 jring@amug.org 36 36

37. Resilient SE Practitioners

38. Raise your hand for the ideal Associate --- What kind of SE should we be? Co-evolves to fit the situation. Clings to mental model. ___ autocatalytic ___ autopoietic, ___ self-organizing, ___ goal-seeking, ___ homeostatic, ___ self-test and repair ___ compensator, ___ governor, ___ ballistic, ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

39. 1: Competency in Language of SE “We (animals having a frontal lobe) started using our language for reasoning before we learned to use our language for the purpose of communicating with one another. …The correct use of propositions and chains of propositions is critical to appropriate adult behavior.” “Language and Human Behavior,” Prof. Derek Bickerton, U. of Washington Press, 1995, Human language and knowledge is: Extensible in both facts and propositions, apparently without limit. The source of our unique, powerful abilities of abstraction, imagination, synthesis and prescription. Linear, Associative, Janusian, Hegelian, ? ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

40. 2. Relationships Pattern: CMM?

41. 2. Relationships Pattern: EDAC Passes completed < 80%, Goals/Shots on Goal < 1/7

42. 2. Relationships Pattern: Chaordic? 10,000 hours  N Error Detections and Corrections ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

43. Unexplored Territory of the Intelligent Enterprise Workgroup Efficiency Limit Interpersonal style is dominant factor with 5X leverage on achievement 3. Objective vs. Team Player?(highly simplified) 100% 75% Encouraging, Admonishing Percent Achievement 50% Anxious, Insincere 25% Critical, Destructive 5 10 15 20 Size of Workgroup Adapted from Amity and Enmity, R. Starkermann ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

44. PSE’s Interact as 2nd Order, Implicit Systems Self realization goals Will Powers disturbances Conscious Unconscious “Amity and Enmity” by R. Starkerman info@editions.ch ISBN 3-908730-29-5 Fig. V-9

45. Frances Ford CoppolaCinema Director “The secret to making a good movie is -- getting everyone to make the same movie.” ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

46. 4. Closure (G-S) Rules for System Engineering System Actions Observe Orient Decide Act Adjust: Gradients on relationships Arrange: Pattern of relationships Co-align: Content of system with context constraints. Within Dynamic and Integrity Limits X, d(X)/dt, d2(X)/dt2 • Thermodynamics: mass, momentum and energy • Informatics: data, information and knowledge • Teleonomics: skills, rate of learning, and rate of invention • Human social dynamics: trust, enthusiasm, co-evolution • Economic: Investment, ROI, Liquidity • Ecology: Waste, Fads, Unintended Consequences ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

47. See also --- Plan --- Do --- Check --- Adjust (Shewhart cycle) Plan --- Do --- Check --- Act (Deming cycle) Double Loop Learning (Argyris & Schon) Second order cybernetics (von Foerster, et al) Observe --- Orient --- Decide --- Act (Col. John Boyd cycle)

48. 5. The Reflective Practitioner Four ascending levels of behavior: 1. Know how. 2. Reflection -- on how 'know how' was applied. 3. Knowing-in-action (devising while doing) • Reflection-in-action. A Practitioner must have two kinds of knowing: • Objectivist - descriptive • Constructivist – prescriptive - world making Designing cannot be taught -- but can be coached Designing: knowledge-in-action, holistic, honors unspecified (unspecifiable?) design qualities (aesthetics) Methods of Coaching The Reflective Practitioner • Joint experimentation, • Follow Me! • Hall of Mirrors Educating the Reflective Practitioner, Donald Schon, Jossey Bass, 1987 ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

49. Take-aways? • System IS, DOES, KNOWS (some even LEARN!). • Problem Systems, Problem Suppression Systems, Gestation Systems (SE and EofS) • At least 9 categories of resilient systems. • SE, a gestation system, reduces EVA for the E of S cadre • By people, • Pursuing MOE’s @ standard of care by requisite variety. • Achieving knowledge exchange and choice making • Using coherent language, appropriate interpersonal style, and proactive, mutual error detection and correction. ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted

50. The castle, Hawkins, besiege thecastle! Clarifications? ©Jack Ring. Attributed copies permitted