Climate Change – A Primer on Energy and the Environment

1. Climate Change – A Primer on Energy and the Environment Or: See you real soon, I’m off to the Thirty Years War Terry Surles

2. Main Points • Overview of greenhouse gas effect • Recent scientific findings versus some Flat Earth Society folk • A significant fraction of the carbon dioxide budget will be used in the next several decades because of energy use • Many options are available to manage the carbon dioxide problem • There is no silver bullet and none of them will be easy • We need to begin to address this problem seriously now

3. Sun Earth Atmosphere Basic Physics of Global Warming Developed in the Mid-19th Century • Joseph Fourier • Asked the question, why is the temperature of the Earth what it is? • Discovered that some of the solar energy incident on the Earth must be radiated back to space, otherwise it would be too hot • But atmospheric trapping of some of infrared radiation is required to explain Earth’s temperature, otherwise it would be too cold

4. The CO2 Greenhouse Effect Was Quantified by John Tyndall in 1861 Measured absorption by CO2 and H2O The first ratio spectrophotometer John Tyndall From J.R.Fleming, Historical Perspectives on Climate Change, 1998

5. CO2 greenhouse effect The solar heat possesses. . . the power of crossing an atmosphere; but, when the heat is absorbed by the planet, it is so changed in quality that the rays emanating from the planet cannot get with the same freedom back into space. Thus the atmosphere admits of the entrance of the solar heat, but checks its exit; and the result is a tendency to accumulate heat at the surface of the planet.” John Tyndall www.tufts.edu/tci/ClimateChange.html

6. The Earth is a Greenhouse Planet Mars Earth (0.03% CO2) Venus (96% CO2) • 63oC 15oC 452oC • Average Surface Temperatures The combination of solar irradiance and greenhouse effect determines the mean surface temperatures of Mars, Earth and Venus. In the absence of the natural greenhouse effect, the average surface temperature of Earth would be -19oC. Source: C.T. Bowman, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford

7. Earliest Predictions of Global Warming Due to Burning of Fossil Fuels Were in 1800s • Hogboom calculated emissions from anthropogenic sources • Human activity was adding as much CO2 to the atmosphere as natural processes • Svante Arrhenius - Gradual accumulation over centuries could double atmospheric CO2 concentrations

8. The Announcement that Global Warming is Here • Guy Stewart Calendar • 1938 presentation to the Royal Meteorological Society • Confirmed that global warming was occurring through statistical analysis of weather data • Argued that burning fossil fuels was the cause • Provided evidence that CO2 concentrations had increased “ gaffers (like Milt) who claim that winters were harder when they were growing up are right… weather men have no doubt that the world at least for a time is growing warmer.” Time Magazine, 1939.

9. Concerns Grow Over the 1950’s “human activity would increase the global temperature by 1.1 degree C per century.” Climate change could be a serious problem for future generations. Gilbert Plass, 1956 “Human beings are now carrying out a large scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor could be reproduced in the future.” Roger Revelle, 1957

10. Charles David Keeling Keeling and Whorf (2005)

11. Greenhouse Gases • Water is the most important GHG. • CO2, CH4, N2O and CFCs are other important GHGs. • Sulfur emissions (aerosol precursors have also risen). • Surface ocean pH has declined by 0.1 due to dissolving CO2. Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report, 2001

12. (ORNL 1997) Source: IPCC, “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge Univ. Press, UK (2001)

14. Predicted future CO2 concentration exceed those inferred for past 25 million years Even if most fossil-fuel carbon is never released to the atmosphere, we will produce geologically unusual conditions Paleo-CO2[lines] (Zachos et al., 2001) Year 2300 atmospheric CO2 predictions for scenarios involving fossil-fuel plus net biomass release over several centuries [colors](Caldeira and Wickett, 2005)

16. Source:IPCC, “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge Univ. Press, UK (2001)

17. Various Modeling Results for Historical Temperatures: The Infamous Inhofe/Crichton “Hockey Stick”

18. Source: IPCC, “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK (2001)

19. The Uncertainty is whether the Future Will Be Bad or Worse • GCM results for California go from relatively dry to extremely wet conditions

21. The short-term carbon cycle (Gruber and Sarmiento, 2002)

22. Carbon emissions and uptakes since 1800 (Gt C)

23. If CO2 emissions continue unabated, we risk commitment to 7000 years of 1 cm per year sea-level rise (on average) 70 m of total sea level rise (over 220 ft) AP Photo: http://www.bafi.org

24. Extreme Weather Continued CO2 emission will lead to warmer sea-surface temperatures Warmer sea-surface temperatures have been associated with increase hurricane intensity Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team NASA GSFC

25. Atmospheric CO2 and climate change • With a 2ºC per century warming, temperature bands in the mid-latitudes march poleward at a rate of 10 m (30 ft) per day C.D. Friedrich, 1821Solitary Tree, National Gallery, Berlin If this tree were at the southern end of its range, could it march north fast enough to remain in the cool weather it likes?

26. It takes many thousands of years to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean WEATHERINGOF SILICATEROCKS CO2 CO2 IONS CARRIED BY RIVERS TO OCEAN ORGANISMS USE IONS TO BUILD CALCIUM CARBONATE SHELLS Image source unknown

27. World Electricity Generationby Fuel Source (IEA)

28. Budgets for Stabilization Billion tonnes Carbon 2004-2100 ppm David Hawkins, NRDC

29. The Budget is Disappearing Cumulative budget 2004-2100 (GtC) Spent Remaining Budget for 450 ppm Stabilization David Hawkins, NRDC

30. New Coal Projected or Planned 670 500 221 Incremental new coal capacity by decade Source: IEA, WEO 2004

31. New Coal Plant EmissionsEqual All Historic Coal CO2 27% of remaining budget for 450 ppm Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004

32. The Need for Technology • Assumed Advances In: • Fossil Fuels • Energy intensity • Nuclear • Renewables • Gap Technologies: • Carbon capture & disposal • Adv. fossil • H2 and Adv. Transportation • Biotechnologies • Soils, Bioenergy, Adv. Biological Energy The “Gap” Source: J. Edmonds, PNNL

33. 1 Billion Tonnes Carbon per Year Reductions for 550 ppm stabilization ~ 6 GtC/yr Source: R. Socolow, Stanford H2 Workshop, 2003

34. U.S. 1997 Carbon Emissions - 1500 Tcf

35. Decarbonization CO2 Btu < CO2 atm CO2 emitted < Carbon Management: An Approach for Integrated Energy Systems R&D Carbon Management Sequestration Efficiency Btu GSP <

36. Energy System Issues • Complex system with lack of systems perspective • Energy is only, intermittently, a big deal • “Rube Goldberg” approach to energy policy • Market is unable to address all societally or politically acceptable externalities • New technologies to do not address Joe Bagadonitz needs

38. Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the United States International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA (Energy Information Agency) 2% - 3.4% - 2.7% Average = - 0.7% 1% 0% 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -1% -2% -3% -4% IEA data EIA data -5% -6%

39. United States Refrigerator Use v. Time 2000 25 1800 1600 20 1978 Cal Standard 1400 Refrigerator Size 1980 Cal Standard (cubic feet) 1200 15 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) 1987 Cal Standard Refrigerator volume (cubic feet) 1000 800 10 1990 Federal Standard 600 Energy Use per Unit 1993 Federal 400 5 Standard 2001 Federal 200 Standard 0 0 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

40. United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 2000 Estimated Standby 1800 Power (per house) 1600 1400 Refrigerator Use per 1978 Cal Standard Unit 1200 1987 Cal Standard Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) 1000 1980 Cal Standard 800 1990 Federal 600 Standard 400 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal 200 Standard 0 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

41. Reducing Electricity Use by 8% Leads to Additional Environmental Benefits (Emissions Reduction) • 2,044 tons CO • 2,307 tons NOx • 175 tons SOx • 263 tons PM10 • 600,000 MT CO2

42. Maintaining a Balanced Technology Portfolio • More efficient use of energy is the best way to reduce all pollution • Fossil fuels will continue to dominate energy mix – but we need to develop sequestration alternatives • Renewables must become more viable, while solving grid stability problems • CO2-free (or CHP) distributed energy resources can be viable economic solution • Nuclear power must remain an option

43. Mitch says, “Nuclear Power Cures What Ails You,” BUT • Cost • Waste disposal • Health and safety • Proliferation

44. Government is a Critical Part of the Equation • Financial instruments must be available to overcome “Valley of Death” • Laws should promote the insertion of new, environmentally-acceptable technology • Level the playing field • Should be in the lead for public education and information dissemination • Must be linkage between public policies and technology development and scientific findings

45. Public-Private Partnerships Needed For Solving Critical Issues Facing Our Electricity System Electric System of the Future Environment Quality Grid Modernization Global Climate Change Energy Security Environment Quality None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without Partnerships

46. Warming Won’t Wait. Will We?

47. Driving to a Sustainable Future:The “E”s are Linked • Environment • Energy • Economics • Equity • Education