Mineral Resources in Modern World: is there enough geological information for secure supply?

1. Mineral Resources in Modern World: is there enough geological information for secure supply? Slavko V. Šolar, Geological Survey of Slovenia, Slovenia Deborah Shields, Department of Economics, Colorado State University, USA ISSUES FOR GEOLOGISTS IN 21ST CENTURY MITIGATION OF MAN'S INFLUENCE AND SERVING SOCIETY'S NEEDS EFG Workshop on the 33rd International Geological Congress 2008 9 August 2008, 9:00 – 14:00, Oslo, Norway

2. content • How to get involved in societal debate? • Framework for science input • Minerals information • Conclusions

3. What is going on in minerals supply world? • Minerals supply – price boom • Legacy issues • Different stakeholders • Industry, Government • NGOs, Local Community • Social License to Mine • Industry and Government Efforts • Common ground

4. Challenges Societal goals and objectives drive geologic programs and activities (After Findlay, 1997)

5. IUGS is aware that ”The geological sciences play a critical role in a wide range of public policy issues that include minimizing the impacts of natural hazards, obtaining necessary natural resources, and protecting the environment. "

6. While scientific information is not the sole answer to achieving sustainability in resource management and resource consumption, science is essential if society is going to be able to: secure a solid information base about how to manage resources sustainability; find the means to communicate that information credibly and apart from political agendas; and educate not only the public and private decision makers, but also the general public (NCSE 2000, p19.)

7. But, how can technical experts increase the use of scientific information in the public debate about sustainable mineral supply, and in the formulation of supply policies?

8. To Successfully CommunicateScience Information to Policy Makers, Geologists will Need to Understand Both • The policy process itself, and in addition • the paradigm of sustainable development.

9. Turning first to policy, they need to understand how policies are developed and at what point in the process science input will be most accepted and useful.

10. Identification of objectives and interests Review and adaptation Definition of policy Codification of policy Monitoring in laws and acts Establishment of a regulatory framework Example of the Classical Policy Cycle

11. Policy Cycle and Science Input

12. Social goal & objectives political and/or industrial interests The Expert’s Role in the Policy Process

13. Where monitoring data / information / indicators fit in the policy cycle

14. The Type of Input needed from Earth Scientists will depend on • Where society is in the policy cycle; • The decision context, i.e., land use, nature conservation, public safety; • The relevant interaction between environment and society, i.e., anthropogenic vs. geo-genic.

15. Technical Experts / Scientists Resource Policy / Management The Politicians / Decision makers Public / Stakeholders Science Information for Sustainability

16. What Science Should Provide • What is known; • The certainty with which it is known; • What is not known; • What is suspected; • The limits of science; • Probable outcomes of different policy options; • Key areas where new information is needed; and • Recommended mechanisms for obtaining high-priority information. (Lubchenco 1995)

17. Scientific Predictability is based in part on: • The past development; • Present state of the world; • Trends (as numerical curves or philosophical theories); and • An optimistic or skeptical vision of the state of the world, i.e., technological world view, on the part of the data provider (Constanza 2000).

18. Uncertainty increases with complexity (Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000)

19. But in reality, what government and policy makers want from science is not always the same as what scientists and technical experts know, are interested in, or are capable of or should be providing.

20. Earth scientist’s contributions are limited by: • Communication problems: • Science language is too abstract, • Scientist’s ignorance about the public’s values or politics combined with perceived value content in the science, and • Differing attitudes about science information between scientists and decision makers.

21. Information Communication: differences in attitudes and behaviors (Bradshaw and Borchers, 2000)

22. But contributions are also limited by: Apparent focus on science topics that are not perceived to be relevant to today’s problems The very nature of scientific investigation The very nature of scientific investigations Socially unacceptable degree of complexity or uncertainty Public discomfort with disagreements between differing philosophical / theoretical camps within disciplines Frustration with scientists continual desire for more information

23. And in fact, there is a widening sea of data, and in comparison a desert of information. Geoscientists can help provide mineral information.

24. Mineral Information consists of: Information on mining / processing /metallurgical operations (technical) Economic data (production, reserves & resources, trade, down-stream use/consumption) Mineral policy, plans, programs & regulation information (permitting, taxation, standardization, labor, environment), Environmental information (environmental impact, resource efficiency), Social mining information (H&S, labor issues, education, communication, partnership, local community, certification, SME & small scale mining, NGOs) RTD & innovation information (science & applied projects)

25. Challenges in Providing Useful and Appropriate Input Earth Scientists need to develop better: • scientific bases for discussion of adequacy of mineral resources; • data on factors involved in mineral supply that should be in public-policy analysis and decision making; • ways to communicate to policymakers and the public the dynamic nature of mineral supply, thus putting the prospect of “running out” in the proper context; and • methods to incorporate recycling and reuse into concept of sustainability.

26. Elements of Minerals Information future : Support decision making and facilitate policy implementation (competitiveness, resource efficiency, or…) on EU, MS or industry with regard to raw materials supply (mineral resource related issues). Integrate existing knowledge & capacity and to coordinate activities Structure starts with small team / project as start for potential as for stand alone operation Outcomes: Data /Statistics/Information/ Indicators - Bulletin / Reports / Studies

27. In General Mineral Information would: Be capable to provide mineral information for the governmental and internationalinstitutions, industry and members states, In deepen existing mineral intelligence on national and international level, and Collect and disseminate accurate and adequate mineral information for multi purposes: statistics, resource information, environmental protection, etc.

28. Specifically MI would : Monitor market conditions, Provide information on mineral resources, reserves, production, and areas of mineralization, Support integrated land use planning, Forecast potential impacts of proposed raw materials, economic and environmental policies, and Inform strategic analyses.

29. Areas of activities: Available data and expertise, Analytical expertise / studies, Data interpretation, Improved coordination among different data suppliers and data consumers.

30. Cooperation and Data Integration among: Academia, Mining and geological institutions Agencies on national level (Statistics, Customs, Environmental Agency), Industry level (Chamber of commerce, private institutions), and Minerals related (law, administrative, environmental, economic, social institutions that also deal with mineral resources /GMES, INSPIRE, ../).

31. Available Data Raw Data: Production, Reserves and resources, Material flow analysis, Trade, Recycling, Consumption, Mineral potential in Europe and the rest of the world, Closed, abandoned mines / mining areas. Aggregated Data and Indicators Economic, environmental and social, EUROSTAT – environmental, national satellite accounts, TSSNR, EU SDI indicators of mining sector.

32. SOURCES OF MINERALS INFORMATION MINERALS, CRITICAL MINERALS,AND THE U.S. ECONOMYTHE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS, Washington, D.C. (www.nap.edu)

33. Available Analytical Expertise / Studies Terminology – Semantics, Improved reporting (reporting culture can be improved by demonstrating added value, engaging CEOs, proving that confidentiality is recognized), Information technology – website collecting and sharing, Sharing guidelines and best practices, and also telling failures.

34. Examples of Data Interpretation Mineral supply and material requirements, Trade pattern internally and with rest of world, Security of supplies issues, Strategic and critical minerals.

35. Minerals Information Outcomes/Products: Research results Network of experts with enhanced coordination, communication and collaboration, Minerals Yearbook, Communication documents on minerals issues

37. One role that technical experts can play is to use minerals information to create and report indicators that provide information about the degree to which the (sustainability) goals embodied in policy are being achieved.

38. Assessing Progress towards Sustainable Development G O A L P R I N C I P L E S C R I T E R I A I N D I C A T O R S

39. Approaches to selecting indicator sets • Indicator set limited to those for which data exist, • Indicator set is chosen without regard to current data availability, • Full information on stakeholders objectives.

40. Information Pyramid

41. Scientists can only analyze and aggregate data to which they have access, which may be limited by: • Availability (physical existence), • Comprehensiveness (intellectual accessibility), • Diffusion (perceived access) and • Potential for feedback (improving total accessibility over time) (Bauler T., Heqo W. 2000)

42. Concluding Remark Geologists can make significant contributions to the better world based on sustainable development policies. But to do so they will have to demonstrate the importance, soundness, and relevance of their field and expertise to the public and to decision makers.

43. .. and where can we start? At promoting the Contribution of the Minerals Professional Community to Sustainable Development MILOS Statement 2003

45. Conclusions • Mineral resources are important to the economic and social development of many countries and they are essential for modern living and sustainable future. • Principles, grouped into general, social and environmental subgroups, would assist scientists and many others in thinking of big picture of minerals supply.

46. Science has to be aware that for decision making “the answer” does not exist. / There is never enough information if you don’t want to decide.