Nomination Game

2. 9.1 Nomination Game • Competing for Delegates • Earning a party’s nomination for office requires money, media attention, and momentum. Candidates must develop a smart campaign strategy to have a hope of winning their party’s nomination. • Convention Send-Off

3. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • National party convention • State delegates meet and vote on nominee • Before candidates for each party can campaign against each other in a general election, they must compete against other potential nominees in their party’s primary elections. • Nomination process more democratic today • Parties were slow to implement democratic reforms in their nominating processes until the riots at the Democratic national convention in 1968, when party leaders could no longer ignore the fact that delegate selection effectively excluded women, minorities, youth, the poor, and other groups who were not represented in party leadership. • McGovern-Fraser Commission • implemented reforms in the Democratic Party’s delegate selection process that encouraged the Republican Party and the states to move to primary elections.

4. 9.1 Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention Riots at the 1968 Democratic national convention led to the establishment of more open procedures for delegate selection. These reforms have made recent party conventions more representative of party membership diversity.

5. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • National party convention • Superdelegates • People who are awarded automatic slots as delegates because they are a member of Congress or their party’s national committee. Their job is to balance the tendencies of the more partisan party electorate and ensure that an electable candidate is given the nomination.

6. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Invisible primary • Woo support out of the public eye • Craft positive personal image • Distinguish themselves from other candidates of the same party • Seek media attention but avoid blunders

7. 9.1 2012 Republican primary debate Televised debates are a regular feature of the presidential nomination process. The Republican candidates for the 2012 nomination participated in 27 debates. Here, Texas Governor Rick Perry is shown making a point while Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum look on.

8. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Most states hold primary elections, but a few hold caucuses, which are meetings where citizens discuss and vote on a nominee. Caucuses require more effort, so voter participation is lower and reflects more intense feelings.. • Iowa caucus • Iowa is the first state to hold its caucus, which gives it media attention disproportionate to its size. • New Hampshire primary • New Hampshire is the first state to hold a presidential primary election, which, like the Iowa caucuses, attracts intense media attention. • Proportional versus winner-take-all primaries • Candidates who do poorly in early primaries are often forced to drop out of the race due to lack of campaign funding. Some states designate all of their delegates for the winning candidate; others apportion them according to the percentage of the vote.

9. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Evaluating the primary and caucus system • Disproportionate attention goes to early caucuses and primaries • The primary and caucus systems brought welcome democratic reforms to the nominee selection process, but they have developed problems of their own. For starters, the candidates devote a disproportionate amount of attention to early primary and caucus states, even though the number of delegates at stake is small.

10. 9.1 FIGURE 9.1: A count of Clinton and Obama events during the 2008 nomination campaign The attention that candidates pay to early primary and caucus states is far more than the number of delegates at stake would otherwise warrant.

11. 9.1 Competing for Delegates • Evaluating the primary and caucus system • System gives too much power to the media • Since campaigning is a full-time job, officials running for reelection often neglect their duties. In fact, legislators are often absent for crucial votes because they’re out on the campaign trail. • Most Americans think that money plays too large a role in political campaigns. Voters in primaries and caucuses tend to be unrepresentative of party membership, and of the electorate as a whole. Only about 25% of eligible voters cast ballots in primary elections, and about 5% participate in caucuses. Finally, the primary system gives tremendous power to the media. They get to be kingmakers by designating a candidate as the likely winner.

12. 9.1 Convention Send-Off • Winner foregone conclusion • Reduced TV coverage • Party infomercial • Carefully scripted • Party platform • Policy goals for next four years • The convention ends with the nominee announcing his vice-presidential pick, followed by acceptance speeches from both nominees. The general election campaign is then officially under way.

13. 9.1 9.1Why were party primaries introduced? • Previous nominating process was undemocratic • Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedure • Party leadership demanded it • All of the above

14. 9.1 9.1Why were party primaries introduced? • Previous nominating process was undemocratic • Candidates refused to run without a change of nominating procedure • Party leadership demanded it • All of the above

15. Section 2

16. Campaign Game 9.2 • The word campaign originated as a military term • High-Tech Media Campaign • Organizing the Campaign Technology is crucial to the modern political campaign.

17. High-Tech Media Campaign Main means of reaching voters = TV Internet increasingly important Direct mail now digital Digital campaigning via Twitter, Facebook Obligatory for the modern campaign Two ways to get attention Television advertising News coverage 9.2

18. Organizing the Campaign Get a campaign manager Get a fund-raiser Get a campaign counsel Hire media and campaign consultants Assemble a campaign staff Plan the logistics Get a research staff and policy advisers Hire a pollster Hire a good press secretary Establish a Web site 9.2

19. 9.2 9.2 Which staff members does a modern candidate need to hire? • Press secretary • Pollsters • Campaign manager • All of the above

20. 9.2 9.2 Which staff members does a modern candidate need to hire? • Press secretary • Pollsters • Campaign manager • All of the above

21. Section 3

22. Questions What is the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974? What was the outcome of CitizensUnited v. FEC? What is a 527 Group? What are independent political expenditures? What are the three main purposes campaigns serve? What is a wedge issue?

23. Money and Campaigning Topics: 9.3 • Regulations on Campaign Contributions • Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures • Are Campaigns Too Expensive? • Does Money Buy Victory?

24. Regulations on Campaign Contributions 9.3 • Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) • Publically disclose who contributed • How money spent • Limits on individual and interest group contributions • Federal Election Commission (FEC) • opensecrets.org and fundrace.org • Public financing • Tax Returns • Loopholes • No limits on spending own money (Ross Perot) • Soft money • Given to parties. • McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002 was passed. This Act banned soft-money contributions, although corporations and wealthy donors continue to find new loopholes to gain influence over elected officials.

25. 9.3 Figure 9.2: How Obama raised more campaign money by declining federal funds Accepting federal funds would mean agreeing to a spending cap. By declining federal funds, Barack Obama was able to raise much more money for his campaign for the presidency. Unless the spending cap is raised significantly or eliminated, it’s unlikely that any future presidential candidates will accept federal funds. Do you think the public financing option should be ended?

26. Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures 527 groups (tax code protection) New route for soft money Independent expenditures Endorsements forbidden Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Until 2010, corporations and unions could not electioneer in the final 60 days before the election, but the Court ruled 5 to 4 in Citizens United that money equals speech and corporations are people, so restrictions on electioneering were a violation of speech rights. This was one of the Court’s more controversial decisions. 9.3

27. 9.3 Citizens United Let’s look at the reason behind the Citizens United lawsuit. David Bossie, shown here, is president of Citizens United, a conservative nonprofit organization, which in 2008 produced Hillary: The Movie. When the Federal Election Commission ruled that this movie was unlawful electioneering, Citizens United successfully sued, establishing the right of any group to engage in independent political expenditures.

28. Regulations on Independent Political Expenditures From the donor’s perspective, there remained one problem with the unlimited spending they could do with 527 groups: it still had to be reported. So they created another loophole: If they set up a 501(c) group instead of a 527 group, they didn’t have to publicly disclose the names of donors or amount of donations. Super PACs The Citizens United ruling led to the creation of new interest groups dubbed Super PACs because of the immense amounts of money they can spend provided that it’s in the form of independent expenditures. 9.3

29. 9.3 TABLE 9.1: Biggest 10 Super PAC donations in 2012 This table shows the largest contributors to Super PACs in the 2012 presidential election. Campaign finance has remains a controversial topic, especially in light of the Citizens United decision. An engaging class discussion could focus on the role of money in politics. Why would some groups and individuals want to avoid disclosing their spending on campaigns? What are some ways voters might access information on who’s funding campaigns? Should disclosure of who funds campaign communications be required?

30. Are Campaigns Too Expensive? Yes 2008 federal elections cost $5 billion Fundraising distracts from official duties No Only .05% of GDP spent on elections About the cost of one DVD per person How to reform system? But reforms are not easy in the wake of the Citizens United decision that equates campaign spending with speech. This decision makes most restrictions on campaign financing unconstitutional. Also, incumbents are unlikely to give up their fundraising advantage. 9.3

31. Does Money Buy Victory? Is there a link between money and votes? Some say no Spend more only when weak Doctrine of sufficiency No need to outspend opponent to win In fact, some argue that there’s a point of diminishing 9.3

32. 9.3 9.3What are independent political expenditures? • Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to voters • Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidate • Money spent without coordination with a campaign • Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

33. 9.3 9.3What are independent political expenditures? • Money spent between campaigns to keep an official visible to voters • Money spent on bumper stickers and lawn signs to support a candidate • Money spent without coordination with a campaign • Money spent to endorse a candidate explicitly

34. Section 4

35. Impact of Campaigns 9.4 • How important are campaigns in determining electoral outcomes? • •reinforcing voters’ preferences for candidates • • getting them to contribute time or money rather than merely voting • • converting voters, or changing their minds • Campaigns mainly reinforce and activate • Why are conversions rare? • Selective perception • Party identification • Incumbent advantage • Wedge issues • issue that splits members of the other party and try to lure voters who feel strongly about that one issue. Democrats, for example, will try to appeal to pro-choice Republicans, and Republicans will attempt to win over anti-abortion Democrats.

36. 9.4 9.4In what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters? • Activating voters to participate or contribute money • Converting voters to switch sides • Reinforcing voters’ preference for candidates • None of the above

37. 9.4 9.4In what way is a campaign least likely to influence voters? • Activating voters to participate or contribute money • Converting voters to switch sides • Reinforcing voters’ preference for candidates • None of the above

38. Section 5

39. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice Topics: 9.5 • Deciding Whether to Vote • Registering to Vote • Who Votes?

40. 9.5 2008 Minnesota Senate race Occasionally election outcomes are so close that all the individual ballots have to be carefully recounted. Here, an election official examines a ballot in the 2008 Minnesota Senate race, with representatives from the opposing candidates observing on either side. In the original count, Norm Coleman finished 215 votes ahead, but after the recount Al Franken won the election by 225 votes.

41. Deciding Whether to Vote Does one vote matter? Voting is costly Tuesday is a workday Is it rational to vote? That depends on your perspective. If you see genuine policy differences between the candidates and believe that one or the other would be better for the country, then, yes, it’s rational to votePolicy differences Political efficacy . People who vote tend to have a sense of political efficacy. That is, they believe that ordinary people can influence government. If you lack that belief, you are unlikely to bother to vote unless you have a strong sense of civic duty. Civic duty 9.5

42. Registering to Vote Another reason that turnout is lower in the U.S. than in other democratic countries is the burden of voter registration. Voter registration laws differ by state Motor Voter Act (1993) Voter ID laws Show government-issued photo ID to vote In most other democratic countries, the burden falls on government to make sure all eligible citizens are registered. The process is automatic and the citizen doesn’t have to do anything besides show up to vote. The U.S. also holds elections more often than most other democratic countries, and it offers voters fewer meaningful choices among candidates. 9.5

43. Who Votes? Education Main factor Increased sense of political efficacy Ease of clearing bureaucratic hurdles Age Older = more likely to vote Younger citizens less settled Race and ethnicity Black and Hispanic turnout lower Gender, marital status, govt. employment 9.5

44. 9.5 TABLE 9.2: Reported turnout rates for groups of U.S. citizens in 2008 and 2010

45. 9.5 Rock the Vote Rock the Vote tries to persuade young people to vote by using pop stars to engage their attention.

46. 9.5 9.5Which demographic group is most likely to vote? • Young Hispanics with high school diplomas • Young single whites with college degrees • Older married people with college degrees • Older single people without high school diplomas

47. 9.5 9.5Which demographic group is most likely to vote? • Young Hispanics with high school diplomas • Young single whites with college degrees • Older married people with college degrees • Older single people without high school diplomas

48. Section 6

49. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizens’ Decisions 9.6 • Do voters select candidates whose policy views they prefer? That would make sense. If it were the case, the winner could assume that he had a mandate from the people to implement his policies. But there’s ample evidence that policy views play only a small role in voter selection. Instead, voters base their decisions on their party identification and their personal view of the candidates

50. Party Identification Provide perspective Similar to sports teams and religion Cue to who is on one’s side Simplifies candidate selection “My party—right or wrong” no more Party identification used to be the single strongest predictor of voting behavior, but party loyalty has eroded since the 1960s Floating voters Likely to be younger 9.6