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The Hydrogen Transition Challenge: Analysis of Adoption Dynamics

This study analyzes the adoption dynamics of hydrogen vehicles, exploring the challenges and trajectories in transitioning to this propulsion platform. It delves into formal models of technology adoption, diffusion, industry evolution, and energy modeling. The research identifies key factors influencing familiarity and adoption of hydrogen technology, providing insights for future strategies and policies.

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The Hydrogen Transition Challenge: Analysis of Adoption Dynamics

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  1. The transition challenge for hydrogen vehicles; analysis of adoption dynamics Jeroen Struben*) MIT Sloan School of Management April 30 2004 *) Many thanks to John Sterman for support and discussions throughout

  2. Hydrogen vehicles: a certain trajectory?

  3. Agenda • Context: the Hydrogen transition challenge • Adoption structure for the vehicle propulsion platform • Reduced/partial models analysis • Insights and future work

  4. Modeling the hydrogen transition challenge - motivation • Formal model literature on technology adoption • diffusion (Bass ’69, Rogers ‘62) • industry evolution (Abernathy/Utterback ’78,…) • learning/scale/spillover (…) • increasing returns and lock-in (Arthur ’89) • energy modeling (Farrell ’03)

  5. Scope of the hydrogen challenge

  6. The adoption structure for vehicle propulsion technologies Basic Bass Structure • Extensions to Basic Bass Model • Multiple platforms/vehicle types • Familiarity • Forgetting • Valence with attractiveness (experience, WOM,..)

  7. Dynamic Hypothesis

  8. Dynamic Hypothesis

  9. Dynamic Hypothesis

  10. Dynamic Hypothesis

  11. Case 1: first order model • Assumptions • 1 platform • drivers held constant • Familiarity dynamics are independent

  12. 1st order model - stock and flow structure

  13. exposures on exposure The effect of exposures on familiarity loss

  14. Analysis: dynamics of familiarity

  15. Analysis: dynamics of familiarity

  16. Analysis: dynamics of familiarity

  17. Analysis: dynamics of familiarity

  18. Case 2: drivers and familiarity • Endogenous adoption • 4th order model • Competition between entrant (e.g. hydrogen) and incumbent (e.g. ICE) • Introduce “relative attractiveness”

  19. 2nd order model

  20. 2nd order model + Marketing effectiveness

  21. Time trajectory 2nd order model of entrant • Reduce to 2nd order through:

  22. Analysis of 2nd order model: phase-plane

  23. Modes of behavior for entrant – equilibrium search

  24. Trajectories in phase plane view with low marketing effectiveness Familiarity of non-drivers of platform 2 (fa2) + Marketing effectiveness 0.4 Drivers of platform 2 (d2 =1-d1)

  25. Drivers of platform 2 (d2 =1-d1) Trajectories in phase plane view with low vs high marketing effectiveness Familiarity of non-drivers of platform 2 (fa2) 0.4 Drivers of platform 2 (d2 =1-d1)

  26. How long to sponsor the hydrogen platform!?

  27. Conclusions / Insights • Innovation systems require attention beyond mere acknowledgement of lock-in/dominance/… • Identify role of particular loops/structures • Here we have modeled and analyzed the more interpretive side adoption • Can already identify policies on what prevents/promotes diffusion • word-of-mouth through non-drivers • less efficient hybrids could grow faster and takeover (as no infrastructure, spillover issues)

  28. Future Steps • Extend study in similar fashion • developments in infrastructure • spillovers • organizational/institutional increasing returns • Historical analysis of the 19th century transition towards the horseless age • Formulating research questions…

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