Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD Challenges and Opportunities

1. Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD Challenges and Opportunities Alain Vidal AKIS-ARCH Workshop, Brussels, 26-27 May 2014 Photo: A. Vidal

2. CGIAR Centers developed high yielding varieties for staple cereals that were the engine of the Green Revolution

3. CGIAR: agricultural research for a food-secure future

4. CGIAR’s research is carried out by 16 Research Programs (CRPs), working in close collaboration with hundreds of partners worldwide

5. Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD3 examples • Climate-Smart Agriculture • Combining mitigation and adaptation • The Wheat initiative • Ecological intensification through healthier water, land and ecosystems

6. What is Climate Smart Agriculture?

7. Why is CSA important? – Adaptation Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming 2013

8. Why is CSA important? – Food Security Maíz Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it T-Max Arroz Yield Yield T-Max 2013

9. Why is CSA important? – Mitigation Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global greenhouse gas emissions (2010) Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year Industrial processes Waste Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands 2 4 11 Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock, energy) 70 Non-Ag Energy 2013

10. Why is CSA important? – Mitigation 85 Non-agricultural emissions “Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world Agricultural and land-use change emissions 48 21 >70% Gt CO2e per year 2013

11. Significant successes in CSA 2013

12. 2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees Paying for ecosystem services CHINA • Increased yields • Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon • 2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion

13. Climate-smart coffee-banana systems • Microclimate: shading can reduce temperature by >2° Celsius • Shade biomass increases carbon stock→ CC mitigation • Shade plants increase revenue and food security for smallholders income up > 50% Van Asten et al (2014)

14. Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management • Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency. Emission Reduction Potential: - 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO) - 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050 FOOTPRINT BAU -30% Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr) With CSA Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway: 3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr -30% 2C Pathway Livestock: Higher productivity  Lower Emission Intensity • Higher incomes for farmers • Healthier animals • Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure • Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation. Example Dairy: Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity. RESILIENCE PRODUCTIVITY Emissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk) Milk Production per Cow Based on results of the GLEAM Model, FAO 2013, Extrapolations What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa? Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha 140+ Million People below $1.25 per day Analysis based on WRI 2013

15. Using already wide-spread technologies currently available: Feeding practices, Animal husbandry, Health management • Result: Reduced unproductive share of animals in the herd, higher resource efficiency. Emission Reduction Potential: - 1.8 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2010 (FAO) - 3.3 Gt CO2-eq/yr in 2050 FOOTPRINT BAU -30% Emissions (Gt CO2-eq/yr) With CSA Remaining Gap to 2C Pathway: 3.1 Gt CO2-eq/yr -30% 2C Pathway Livestock: Higher productivity  Lower Emission Intensity • Higher incomes for farmers • Healthier animals • Biodiversity conservation due to reduced land pressure • Most of the technologies and practices that mitigate emissions also improve productivity and can contribute to food security and poverty alleviation. Example Dairy: Below 2000 kg milk/cow/year, productivity increases correlate with very significant reductions in emissions intensity. RESILIENCE PRODUCTIVITY Emissions (kg CO2-eq/kg Milk) Approximation of area suitable for Agroforestry and Water Harvesting in Africa: ~ 300 Million Ha Milk Production per Cow What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa? Food Production • +615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people • Average yield increase 50% • Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizer +88 Million Tons • Multiple benefits include: • Reduced soil erosion • Additional diversified income from wood products • Strengthened drought resistance from increased water storage PRODUCTIVITY +44 Million Tons Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on300 Million Ha Carbon Sequestration • 2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions • Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems Adoption on 150 Million Ha Adoption on300 Million Ha Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact. RESILIENCE FOOTPRINT - 1 Gt of CO2eper year - 2 Gt of CO2eper year

16. Direct agricultural emissions are spread across regions and across production sectors “Ag soils” includes synthetic fertilizers, manure applied to crops, field application of crop residues, and nitrous oxide from cultivated organic soils. Source: FAOStat data from 2010 (accessed 2013); area of pie charts scaled to regional emissions.

17. Mitigation opportunities by country Mitigation opportunities are clustered primarily in the major agricultural economies. Source: CEA analysis.

18. INDIA Weather-based insurance 12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured • Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed • Reduces risks • Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation

19. Adaptations to deal with higher climate variability and climate risks • Better weather forecasts and climate informationreaching farmers, governments, emergency relief • Social safety nets to help vulnerable people recover from climate shocks • Weather insurance in agriculture reaching more farmers Towards more transformative change

20. CSA Alliance: AR and ARD institutions unitedwith International Organizations and NGOs

24. An agriculture thatcontributes to environmental protection ratherthanenvironmentaldegradation Minimum Goals for 2050 Total Agricultural Production Improve Human Health Nutritionally Complete Production Food Distribution and Access Conserve agrobiodiversity Increase Farm Self Reliance Production Goals Food Security Goals Environmental Goals Development Goals Improved Water Quality Carbon Sequestered Water Conserved Biodiversity Conserved Soil Formed Increased Farmer Livelihoods And Resilience Adapted from Foley et al 2011

25. N-S Partnerships for ecological intensification

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