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From Bayesian Modelling to Saddam’s Kurdish Genocide

From Bayesian Modelling to Saddam’s Kurdish Genocide. Inaugural Professorial Lecture Professor Jamal R M Ameen University of Glamorgan 17th January, 2012. Life in a Refugee Camp in Iran. Life in a Refugee Camp in Iran. My Carrier. Living to be productive; Statistics as a platform;

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From Bayesian Modelling to Saddam’s Kurdish Genocide

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  1. From Bayesian Modelling to Saddam’s Kurdish Genocide Inaugural Professorial Lecture Professor Jamal R M Ameen University of Glamorgan 17th January, 2012

  2. Life in a Refugee Camp in Iran

  3. Life in a Refugee Camp in Iran

  4. My Carrier • Living to be productive; • Statistics as a platform; • Bayesian modelling as a tool;

  5. What is meant by a Model A miniature version of a state of nature that is: • Satisfactory in performance relative to the stated objective, • Logically sound, • Representative, • Questionable and subject to on-line interrogation, • Able to accommodate external or expert information and • Able to convey information.

  6. Elements of Bayesian Statistics • Tomas Bayes (1702-1761): English Mathematician, studied theology and logic at the University of Edinburgh • His theorem known as “Bayes Theorem” was read to the Royal Society after his death in 1763 and later published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London a year later.

  7. Bayes Theorem

  8. Different Forms of Bayes Theorem

  9. The Bayesian Learning System

  10. Posterior to Prior Knowledge Transition

  11. Management by Exception Regular Data Intervention by Exception Expert & Prior Information Exception Signals Action s Taken: Stock Control, Production and Market Planning ..

  12. Implications • No stationarity prerequisites; • Man and machine continuous interaction: • A scientific blend of subjectivity and objectivity; • Unforeseen events accommodated; • Full probabilistic information provided for utility maximisation and decision making; • Applicability across all of social, economical and environmental fields.

  13. Implications for Decision Making • Capturing dynamics in: • User behavior; • Environmental changes; • Unforeseen Events. • Blending expert information and prior beliefs; • Probabilistic expression of reliability of results; • Reliability of data and information based on their age.

  14. SOME REAL LIFE EXAMPLES

  15. Real life Examples • Impact of Innovation: UK Bold; • Electricity Consumption and Temperature; • Pressure Bandages Blood Decomposition Control; • Pain monitoring • Clustering and Crime Detection • Construction and Cost Estimation • Data zooming • Saddam’s Genocide of Kurdistani’s

  16. Impact of Innovation

  17. Impact of Innovation

  18. South Wales Domestic Electricity Consumption • Modelling the impact of temperature on DEC; Project outcomes: • Industrial consultancy; • Industrial financial support for a successful PhD student; • Publications and conference presentations in Europe and Australia; • The candidate employed by the university as Senior Lecturer.

  19. 8 0 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 Q U A R T E R 5 0 0 A u t u m n S u m m e r S T I S p r i n g N U W i n t e r 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 D E G _ D A Y Quarterly Degree Days by Units of Electricity Consumed

  20. Electricity Consumption and the Weather

  21. Pressure Bandages & Leg Ulcer Treatment European Funded • Pressure Bandages for blood flow control to aid the healing process; • Excess pressure can produce the risk of ischemia; Detailed data on the level of pressure and blood decomposition were observed; A cusp catastrophe was discovered from the observed data. This was unexpected by the clinicians. Considerable implications for the monitoring and controlling on patient recovery.

  22. Pressure Bandages and Blood Composition

  23. Leg Ulcer & Pain Dynamic Profiles • Smith & Nephew Foundation funding for the modeling stage; • Welsh Government funding for preparing a prototype with prospects for mass production and marketing.

  24. Clustering and Crime Detection

  25. Construction and Cost Estimation

  26. Data Mining and ModelingIntroduced the principle of zooming in and out of data to aid the blending of classical and modern methods of data analysis

  27. Contributions to My Native Home: Kurdistan • An Establishing member of Kurdistan Medical and Scientific Federation based in London; • Data and Information Centre for Kurdistan; • The Human Cost of Tyranny in Kurdistan Region: A Bayesian Dynamic Estimation Model; • Over 20 publications in the local media covering the economical, social and political aspects of interest to Kurdistan.

  28. The structure of data communication

  29. THE KURDISH SOCIETY THE KRG LOCAL ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS INTERNATIONAL ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS DAICK

  30. The Halabja Gas Massacre

  31. The Barzani Tribe Genocide

  32. One of the Concentration Camps

  33. The Mass Exodus

  34. Human Cost Estimation • No intermediate data • The only reliable census data available from the years of 1947 and 1957 • Fertility rates and survival rates estimated from the past surveys; • A dynamic model was built with these estimates completing the state transition matrix.

  35. Estimated Human Cost of Tyranny in Kurdistan 1,911,479 of which 1,043,549 are male & 867,930 are female

  36. Thank you for listening

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