Understanding climate impacts on vulnerable people

1. Sarah Lindley, University of Manchester Understanding climate impacts on vulnerable people Local Health and Wellbeing in a changing climate, Nottingham Friday 1st March 2013 Justice, vulnerability and climate change Full report available at http://www.jrf.org.uk/publications/climate-change-justice-and-vulnerability

2. Vulnerability • How external stresses impact on well-being. • A lower ability to respond to stresses placed on well-being  higher vulnerability. • The central question: how is vulnerability distributed across different individuals and groups? • Likelihood and severity of the weather related event – flood, heatwave. • Vulnerability: The conversion of the event into welfare impacts (individual, social and environmental) • Climate disadvantage is a function of 1 and 2. • The characterisation of vulnerability raises: • How should well-being be conceptualised and measured? • What factors are relevant to understanding how external stresses convert into changes in well-being?

3. Socio-spatial vulnerability • Geographical expression of the potential for an event to convert into the loss of wellbeing • Dimensions reveal a different picture and requires different actions Ability to prepare Exposure (Enhanced) Sensitivity Adaptive capacity Ability to respond Ability to recover Vulnerability Exposure • But understanding related climate disadvantage requires consideration of the potential for contact with a flood or heat-related event too Climate disadvantage Hazard

4. Socio-spatial flood/heat vulnerability domains

5. Socio-spatial flood vulnerability in England Coastal Built-up areas, basement dwellings e.g. possible insurance access issues

6. *Land area with significant or moderate flood likelihoods(EA) English mean = 8.4% NB: NOT properties exposed

7. Both neighbourhoods have relatively low adaptive capacity • East has population & local physical characteristics close to English norm • West has less sensitive population but a local environment which can enhance flood exposure

8. Selected indicators – L’boro E • Physical characteristics balance out to English norm • Proportions of basement dwellings above average (5.1% compared to 2.6%) • but not as built up as the average English neighbourhood taken as a whole • Sensitivity around average overall • Higher than expected % of young children

9. Selected indicators – L’boro E • Lower adaptive capacity - preparing for, responding to and recovering from events may be difficult • Potential for insurance access problems • Lower HH incomes £280 (vs. £390) • Relatively high rates of new arrivals • 42.3% HHs without a car (vs. 26.3%) • Lower than expected increase in house prices 2003-8 • Higher than average rates of social and private tenants • Large proportion of residents born overseas (20.6% compared to 8.2%)

10. Regional breakdowns • % of total neighbourhoods in each English region estimated to be extremely socially flood vulnerable • % estimated to be extremely flood disadvantaged (high socio spatial vulnerability & high potential for flood exposure)

11. Heat disadvantage in England • London’s high average socio-spatial heat vulnerability is coupled with tendency for higher temperatures • England’s climate gradient also offsets some of the low socio-spatial heat vulnerability in South East • But • There is a differential in the tolerance of high temperatures from place to place • Alternative measures required

12. Socio-spatial heat vulnerability compared to local temperature patterns

13. There is variation in what drives heat-related social vulnerability Selection accounted for relative temperature pattern (class 5)

14. Selected indicators – St Matthews & St Peters Leicester 018 • Sensitivity – relatively sensitive • Young children rather than older residents • Reported ill-heath • Physical environment enhances heat • Around 4.8% HHs >= 5th floor (vs. 0.7%) • Relatively small gardens • Less greenspace (85.9% not GS vs. 48.3% ) • Lower adaptive capacity • Lower incomes £160 per HH (vs. £390) • Relatively high % of lone parents & social renters • Lower mobility: personal mobility &access to private transport: 59.1% HHs no car • Relatively good access to health services & local refuges

15. Key findings and conclusions • Key socially vulnerable groups: • Poverty and deprivation • New residents • Mobility and access • Sensitivity (inherent susceptibility to impacts, age & health) • Enhanced exposure (physical characteristics of neighbourhoods) • Drivers vary  local case studies provide further insight • Almost all neighbourhoods will have some socially vulnerable people but the key characteristics of neighbourhoods can help in targeting and designing local measures alongside other activities Evidence of joint socio-spatial vulnerabilities in the UK – up to 2/3 of the top 10% most socially vulnerable neighbourhoods were so for both flood & heat

16. ClimateJust - a new decision-support web portal • Aim the primary entry point for learning about climate justice & what constitutes a just response to the challenges of climate change in the UK • ClimateJust will assist users with Awareness Raising; Learning;Responding. • Key element  distributive justice with respect to negative welfare impacts, but drawing on evidence, tools and guidance for other justice elements • The resource is aimed at local authorities and service providers working with local communities. • Development/Testing • Data/case study work • SWOT/’stakeholder’ mapping • Wider dissemination • Interested? Please email sarah.lindley@manchester.ac.uk Increasing engagement & different modes of engagement