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Warning Operations and Workload Mitigation

Warning Operations and Workload Mitigation. Jim LaDue and Liz Quoetone WDTB February 2007. Learning Objectives. According to this lesson you will be able to Understand the importance of planning staffing for effective sectorization before an event

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Warning Operations and Workload Mitigation

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  1. Warning Operations and Workload Mitigation Jim LaDue and Liz Quoetone WDTB February 2007

  2. Learning Objectives • According to this lesson you will be able to • Understand the importance of planning staffing for effective sectorization before an event • Understand the strategies to effectively change warning sectorizations during an event • Understand strategies to keep effective warning operations going due to unforeseen changes in workload

  3. Performance Objectives • A forecast team will be able to match sectorizing plans to available staffing and expected severe weather threats to create effective warning operations • A forecast team can effectively maintain high priority severe weather operations when faced with rapid evolution in a severe weather event

  4. How we’ll do this Team Individual

  5. 4 factors in success for NWS warning events

  6. Elements of a Severe Weather Operations Plan (SWOP) Addressing the Science, Technological and Human Factors • Common goal (NWS Mission) • Essential tasks accomplished efficiently • Staffing levels and assignments appropriate for the severe wx threat • Evaluation of office performance after each event

  7. Factors in an Effective SWOP Communicate Cooperate Collaborate J. Eise

  8. Factors in an Effective SWOP • Mitigation of negative stress Stress/Performance Curve Performance Stress Team Building Associates (1997)

  9. Role of Severe Weather Coordinator Oversees SWOP Maintain high SA Science:Pre event briefing, adapts the team to evolving situations Human Factors: Maintains optimal SA Message:Ensures a consistent outgoing message Technology: Ensures systems function well Completes severe wx checklists

  10. FAQ

  11. FAQ

  12. FAQ

  13. Coordinating Human Factors Considerations for the Warning Coordinator • There is a catastrophic failure • Comm lines go down • A non-routine event occurs • Have to do backup without the proper localizations • When responsibilities are unassigned • New storm develops in a previously unmonitored sector Breakdowns occur when: Xiao et al 1998

  14. Human Factors…contConsiderations for the Warning Coordinator • Must understand how teams coordinate in a complex and dynamic work environment • With that understanding, we can anticipate when and why breakdowns are most likely to occur • Need to acknowledge the important role of non-verbal communication that can be crucial in certain situations • Value of familiarity A suggested course to take: Field Operations Management

  15. Human Factors…contConsiderations for the Warning Coordinator NASA Study - around 1/3 of first officer monitoring and challenging failures were driven by face threat Hi - I’m Capt Pierce. This is my first day in the co-pilot seat. And uh...ok. Hi - I’m Col. Potter. I’ve had 25 years of flying experience and we’re gonna fly right through there.

  16. Situational Awareness (SA) • Low SA, low workload • Don’t know anything, don’t want to know • Low SA, high workload • Don’t know anything, but am trying way too hard to find out • High SA, high workload • Do know plenty, but at great effort (can’t keep this up for long!) • High SA, low workload • Do know, and it comes easily • If you are not operating here….find out why and fix it!

  17. Warnings are Level III SA Perceive, comprehend, project Decision to warn based on Perception of information Comprehending the information Projecting the information forward in time Requires high ratio of forecaster to # of storms Key: Sectorize (re-distribute workload) Assure staffing is appropriate SA and Workload I II III

  18. Example 1: Warning Team – Marine WFO • Typical Event • Team is a warning forecaster and an assistant • SVSs not split off • Coordinator tasked with calls WS2 WS3 Long-term (1 Met) Short-term (1 Met) Svr Wx Coordinator (1 Met) CRS CRS QC/River Flood (1 HMT/Intern) Warning (1-2 Mets) WS1 WS4 Storm Reports (1 HMT/Intern) WS5 HAM (1 Person)

  19. Example #1a – Warning Team Marine WFO • Major Event • Warning forecaster and assistant • Sectorizing by warning type (FF vs SVR) • SVSs split off to form new team • Flash Flood also does NOWs, SPSs WS2 WS3 Long-term (1 Met) Short-term (1 Met) Public, Flash flood (1-2 mets) Marine/Aviation (2 Mets) QC (1 HMT/intern) Svr Wx Coordinator (1 Met) CRS Asst. Svr Wx Coordinator(1 Met) CRS River Flood(1-2 Hydro/intern) QC/River Flood (1 HMT/Intern) Warning (1 Met) Warning (1 Met) WS1 WS4 Storm Reports (1 HMT/Intern) WS5 HAM (1 Person) HAM (2 more) SVSs (2 Mets)

  20. Example #2: Inland Typical Event • Warning Fcster • All warnings, SVSs • One or two geographic sectors • Web graphics • Two people staffing the radio and making probing calls Warning Coordinator (1 Met) Short Term (1 Met) Long Term (1 Met) Web graphics (1 Met) SA Display and MSCFs Warning, SVSs (Met) Warning, SVSs (Met) Probing Calls Ham Radio (1staff) CRS (1 staff)

  21. Example #2a: Inland Big Event • Warning Fcster • All warnings, SVSs • More geographic sectors • Web graphics • Ham radio, CRS, probing calls all in the same area • Layout focuses attention on large SA display and MSCFs Warning Coordinator (1 Met) Short Term (1 Met) Hydro Warning, FLSs (1 Met) Warning, SVS (1 Met) Web graphics (1 Met) 2nd Warning Coordinator (1 Met) SA Display and MSCFs Warning, SVSs (1 Met) Warning, SVS (1 Met) Public (1 Met) Probing Calls Ham Radio (2 staff) CRS (1 staff)

  22. Example #3 – Warning Team Inland WFO • Inland WFO • Workload mitigation through • Warning Forecaster • Assistant Warning Fcster • Geographic sectors • Up to 4 sectors Warning,Asst Warn (2 Met) Warning,Asst Warn (2 Met) Long Term (1 Met) Warning Coord, Comms (2 Mets) Amateur radio (2 persons) Short Term (1 Met) CRS, Tech support (1 HMT) Inland WFO severe weather operations layout for “outbreak” events (Note 2 Warning Teams)

  23. Warning Environments Review • Warning forecaster, Asst Warning Forecaster • More people on one sector • Fewer sectors • End to end warnings, SVSs • Warning team, SVS team • More people on one sector • Fewer sectors • SVS team may handle more than one sector • warning forecaster • One person on one sector • End to end warnings, SVSs • More sectors needed

  24. Sectorizing Management Review Sectorize by geography Sectorize by storms Sectorize by product type FFW vs SVR, TOR 1 Metropolis 3 2

  25. Reducing Workload Increasing Situational Awareness

  26. Warning_sector_quiz1

  27. Sectorize Challenges • Avoiding pitfalls when • Rev up a new sector • Change the type of sectoring • Adapt to an unexpectedly severe event

  28. Warning SA level Highest Medium lowest Warning Forecaster Short Term forecaster, SVS team,warning asst New forecaster, Public fcster Sector Addition Analogies

  29. Shift Change • Do you allow for the new forecaster to be a “copilot”?

  30. When any of these happen (perception) You hear yourself saying: “I don’t have any time to do statements” "I don't have time to update TAFS (or anything).“ "I'm too busy to call in for extra help." "I can’t even go to the restroom.“ The algorithms are doing most if not all of your storm interrogation No one is answering the phones It means this (comprehension) Workload is overpowering staffing You are in over your head A seed of disaster has been planted So you should do this (projection) Call a designated person to find you help or enact a recovery plan. Yea Nay Location Pre-existing of Conditions Feature (met) Radar Model ? Data ? Guidance ? (yours) Radar Data (others) Satellite Radar Gut Data Feeling (others) Updated Probing Spotter Mesoscale Calls Reports Analysis SA of Knowing You’re in Over Your Head

  31. Team Warnings SVSs SPS, HWOs TAFs Grids Individual Warn for the Greatest threat Warn for the next greatest threat Interim SVS, FLSs Expiration SVSs, FLSs When You’re Overwhelmed, What’s Your Priority? Ask your neighbor WFO to help with lower priority tasks If you’re the neighbor, have you called to offer help?

  32. Individual Storm Interrogation Process Timing depends on urgency vs. careful analysis and composition 0 sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec Screen Report Rank Individual Decide Warning Composition

  33. Ranking Process(Or, determining which storms need further action) • Depends on the Situation (If …then) • Immediacy of Threat • Is there a warning about to expire? • Is there a report? • What storm poses the biggest threat to life and property?

  34. Individual Storm Interrogation Process Timing depends on urgency vs. careful analysis and composition 0 sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec ?? sec Screen Report Rank Individual Decide Warning Composition Product, workload check

  35. Warn_sector_quiz2

  36. Summary • Role of a Severe Weather Operations Plan • Role of a Severe Weather Coordinator • Severe Weather Checklist (prior, during) an event • Situational Awareness • Office warning strategies (Asst Warn, SVS team, more individual warning fcsters) • Sectorizations, Shifting Sector strategy • Individual and office strategies to recognize and fix trouble

  37. Acknowledgements • Dave Andra • Rich Naistat • Steve Piltz • Contacts • Jim LaDue ( James.G.LaDue@noaa.gov ) • Liz Quoetone (Liz.Quoetone@noaa.gov)

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