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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS. OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES (OMES – formerly Office of State Finance) November 1, 2013* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst.

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STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

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  1. STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES (OMES – formerly Office of State Finance) November 1, 2013* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.

  2. GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures(In Millions) $6,902.8m $6,726.8m OFFICIAL ESTIMATE – FY’14 Actual Collections $5,889.3 $6,572.1m $6,566.8m $527.2 $429.1 $596.1 $297.3 ($104.3) $298.9 $503 $156.9 Appropriations Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2013 – Ave. 3.38% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY-2014) – Ave. 2.76% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 3.5%) and ROADS increases Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2014 Actuals – Normalized Ave. 4.12% PROJECTIONS Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OMES actual numbers and effects of current law.

  3. General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions(TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) FY-2015 – FY-2016 Ave. 6.3% Growth Ave. 19.7% Growth Ave. 1.3% Growth Ave. 5.3% Growth Ave. 2% Growth OMES ACTUALS 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND–BASED PROJECTIONS JUNE BOE EST. SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS

  4. General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year) (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC. BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 1.1% 10.6% 12.6% JUNE BOE ESTIMATE Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding ACTUALS

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