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Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007. Steve Knutson. Insurance is about predicting the future. Emerging Issues are:. Phenomena whose nature and effects are unknown
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Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007 Steve Knutson
Emerging Issues are: • Phenomena whose nature and effects are unknown • Beyond the bounds of existing underwriting and risk management protocols • Beyond existing actuarial calculations
But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know, we don't know. That there are known knowns, there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know, we don't know. And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns. Donald Rumsfeld Former Secretary of Defense Flash
Process Improve-ments Screen Screen Screen Analyze andResolve Analyze andResolve Analyze andResolve Implement Solutions Implement Solutions Implement Solutions Measure Results Measure Results Measure Results Identify PROCESS Quantify and Prioritize Quantify and Prioritize Quantify and Prioritize
Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments
Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments • Socio-economic trends
Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments • Socio-economic trends • Novel legal theories
Emerging issues arise from: • Technological developments • Socio-economic trends • Novel legal theories • Legislation and Regulation
Cell Mutations Technological Developments
Diesel Technological Developments
Acrylamide Technological Developments
DieselAcrylamide Technological Developments
Fear of future injury or disease Technological Developments
Cell Mutations Technological Developments
“Obesity” Litigation Socio-economic trends
Addictive foods Socio-economic trends
Addictive foods Socio-economic trends
Alien Tort Statute Novel Legal Theory
Alien Tort Statute Novel Legal Theory
Alien Tort Statute Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance Novel Legal Theory
Body burden Legislation
Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, Florida June 17-20, 2007 Steve Knutson