Greenstreet Berman Ltd greenstreet.co.uk Michael.wright@greenstreet.co.uk T: 020 3102 2117

1. Research on a Risk Based Approach to Safety and Prevention Programmes & Campaigns to Save Lives at Sea Study for the RNLI (2011-12) Greenstreet Berman Ltd www.greenstreet.co.uk Michael.wright@greenstreet.co.uk T: 020 3102 2117 Michael Wright, Paul Leach, Rebecca Canham, Abu Shahriyer, Shona Watson & Trevor Stockwell

2. Overview of work • Stage 1: Assess coastal risks; • Stage 2: Evaluating RNLI’s current coastal safety programmes; • Stage 3: Developing a future coastal safety strategy.

3. Water Accident Incident Database (WAID) • Minister for shipping launched WAID at the RoSPA water safety conference in November 2009 • First successful consolidation of drowning data • MCA, RNLI, ROSPA, police etc pool data • WAID started in 2007 • Published 2009 fatality data

4. WAID vs ONS WAID • ~370 accidental inland & coastal drownings each year in UK • About 150 accidental coastal / at sea drowning per year in UK • 155 suicides (& >100 uncertain) • Mostly adult men Office for National Statistics (2010) • 217 accidental drowning • 218 suicides WAID, for the first time, provides a more valid count of accidental drowning...although BSAC have reported diving deaths since 1965 and MAIB publish commercial deaths at sea

5. Accidental coastal drowning per activity pa (2006-2009)

6. Some comparisons (inland & coastal) • 10 people drown every week in June to August in the UK – 4 at sea.

7. Rates of death of above 1 in 1000 for workers and 1 in 10,000 for members of the public Risks are intolerable and must be reduced Risks are tolerable but should be reduced as far as reasonably practicable Rates of death of below one in one million people Risks are broadly acceptable (negligible) Risk criteria

8. Coastal rates of accidental drowning by activity

9. Data sources • Deaths • Commercial fishing & merchant navy = MAIB • Diving = BSAC • Other = WAID and 2006 to 2008 data from MCA, ROSPA and RNLI • Participation • Commercial fishing and merchant navy = Marine Management Organisation & ONS employment data • Other adults = Arkenford survey • Diving = Arkenford survey and BSAC • Children = ONS • Comparators • DfT, DCLG, ONS, HSE, FSA

10. Some observations of coastal drowning • Men are 90% of deaths • Men are main participants in higher risk activities • Higher male rates of death per activity

11. Coastal child rates of death and lives saved (2009) • All activities assumes 4.4m boys and 4.2m girls (aged 5 to 16) • Beach assumes 2.7m boys and 2.7m girls • 2 deaths and 176 rescues

12. Societal risk – lives saved (by lifeboats)

13. Trends in total coastal deaths (2006-2010) All activities • No discernible trend

14. Trends in total coastal deaths (2006-2009) All leisure activities • Majority of the year on year changes in the number of deaths (across all leisure activities) attributed to number of water sports and leisure participants and the average summer sea surface temperature; • No evidence of a decline in coastal accidental drowning.

15. Nature of drowning • Cold water shock (first few minutes) • Heart attacks (increased blood flow & hydrostatic pressure) • Hyperventilation – uncontrollable gulping down of water • High risk to everyone if below 15Oc but possible if ~20oC or more (depends on age, physique, acclimatisation) • 150 mls of water can kill • Swim failure (after about 10 minutes) due to loss of control of arms and legs • Hypothermia (sets in after 30 minutes or so – die in hours) - depends on • Water temperature, • Body mass, • Level of immersion and • Clothing • Cold water cited as a factor in some incident reports

16. Example of UK sea surface temperature (2000-09) • 5 out of 9 June’s & October SSW temperature below 15 degree C

17. Trend in RNLI rescues of sailing and boating vessels • More sailing and motor boat incidents vessel incidents per year • Sports participation survey suggests decline in sailing & boating

18. Sub Aqua fatality rates • Cannot estimate trends for non-BSAC divers without participation data • Would need to control for number of dives by type of certification 2011

19. UK commercial fishermen rate of death

20. Coastal water suicides • WAID indicated 71 suspected suicides in 2009 at coast/ shore/beach/ harbour locations. • Suspected self-harm accounted for 604 RNLI lifeboat incidents per year on average • 30 lives saved per year by RNLI

21. Typical causes of fatal coastal accidents • Underestimate vulnerability, fatigue, impact of cold water etc • Swim failure in ten minutes • Over estimate own ability • Believe can self rescue if fall overboard • Fail to understand hazards • Rip currents faster than Olympic swimmers • Inexperience • Cannot control kite surf • Behavioural norms • Failure to wear lifejackets • i.e mostly knowledge, perceptions, attitudes and behaviours (& health status)

22. Impact of safety promotion elsewhere • About 30% decline in Australian coastal drowning between 2004/05 and 2010/11 following from lifeguards, beach safety promotion, lifejackets campaigns etc; • 70% reduction in Alaskan fishermen deaths since 1990’s; • 70% reduction in Irish commercial fishing drowning in 2000’s. • UK fire deaths in the home fell by 33% in 2000’s; • 44% fall in road deaths and serious injuries in UK in 2000’s.

23. Features of successful interventions • Set targets for fewer deaths and injuries; • Significant levels of safety promotion; • Multiple methods - mass media, safety codes, face to face, schools education, incident follow up and so on; • Achieve in minds of people: • Conscious of the risk (enough to motivate behaviour change); • Understand how hazard causes harm; • Understand how safety measures prevent specific causes of harm; • Confidence in ability to follow safety advice; • Consider safe practice to be the norm. • Focused on specific issues, e.g. Smoke alarms; • Sustained over many years.

24. Evaluation of current RNLI safety promotion activities • Need to: • Define targets & aims • Increase volume of engagement for all sports, leisure and commercial activities to have a measureable impact • Raise awareness, risk perceptions & concern about risk of drowning • Increase understanding of water hazards (cold shock, swim failure, rip currents etc) • Focus on causes of drowning in each activity • Make safety the norm

25. Example actions being considered • Review, revise and re-issue safety guidance: • Compare to incident causes & factors • Good practice comparison • Expert review • Improve information provision – signage on beaches, wind/current information APPs, local guides, Point of sale etc; • Risk communications – editorials, press releases, radio/TV interviews, Youtube clips etc; • Preventative actions – face to face engagement, talks at clubs, site visits, zoning; • Incident follow up – talks at local clubs, safety alerts, individual advice for rescued persons; • Schools & other education.

26. Next steps • Consider implications of risk assessment • Consult sports governing bodies, MCA, ROSPA and others • Consider future strategy & the case for a National Water Safety Strategy • Consider whether a multi agency scheme would be appropriate to develop & deliver a national campaign? • Review, revamp and re launch coastal safety promotion schemes