Housing 2020 : What is Shaping the Future of Housing in Virginia Presentation on “ Demographics ”

1. Housing 2020: What is Shaping the Future of Housing in Virginia Presentation on “Demographics”

2. Problems emanating from the housing market forced financial institutions to take massive write-downs on their mortgage portfolios, igniting a broader banking crisis. Amid fears about the strength of banks and severe losses of both housing and stock wealth, consumer confidence plunged 41 percentbelow its lowest previous trough. Households slashed their spending and—for the first time on record—cut their net borrowing.State of the Nation’s Housing 2009

3. Where we’ve been in the last 5 years • Our housing market has been defined by the housing crash over the past 5 years. • Over 100,000 homes foreclosed in Virginia • Construction of new homes nearly came to a halt • Sales of existing homes dipped to record lows • Nearly 25% of mortgages in Virginia are underwater or near underwater • The homeownership rate began to decline for the first time

4. After several false starts, there is reason to believe that 2012 marks the beginning of a true housing market recovery. State of the Nation’s Housing 2012

5. We’re beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target? It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down. Robert Schiller, NYT, January 26, 2013

6. Housing 2020: Why? • We need to look beyond recovery from the Housing Crash • There are sweeping trends that are re-shaping housing in seismic ways. • Our housing markets and products will be widely affected. • Understanding these trends and their impacts will help us prepare our communities.

7. THINK BIG: What is shaping the future of housing in Virginia in the next decade?

8. Demographics Economics Finance Green/Sustainable

9. Housing 2020 Part 1: Demographics

10. Demographics • Virginia’s population is growing • Regional growth varies greatly • New households are different from the past • The “Millennials” are here • The “Age Wave” has arrived • Housing preferences are changing

11. Demographics • John Martin at SIR / Boomer Project • CEO of the Boomer Project and president and CEO of the Southeastern Institute of Research • John has been the guiding force behind the Older Dominion Partnership, an umbrella organization dedicated to studying the impact of the age wave on Virginia and how to prepare for it.

12. Population Growth • How much growth? • Where will it be? • Who will it be? • What does it mean for housing?

13. Putting future demographic change in perspective

14. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Population Growth in Perspective” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

15. Whereis the growth happening? • 2010 • 2030 Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service

16. Demography is Destiny: Impacts on communities

17. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “VA’s Population Growth – Makeup and Expectations” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

18. The AGE WAVE: What is it … What does it mean?

19. The AGE WAVE: “Age Ready Communities”

20. Why do we need to be “Age Wave Ready”?

21. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “The Age Wage” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation. .

22. The AGE WAVE: Boomers are diverse; will make different housing choices as they retire

23. How are the new HHs in Virginia different from the past ?

24. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Shift in HH Makeup” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

25. Multi-generational HHs on the rise

26. Multi-Generational HHs in Virginia

27. Multi generational HHs on the rise

28. No longer just the Walton family…

29. Household formation in decline CPS - Current Population Survey; HVS - Housing Vacancies and Homeownership; ACS – American Community Survey

30. Household Formation • Unemployment for Millennials is twice the National Average • Real Wages for Young People have Declined since 2007 • 1 in 3 btw age 18 and 25 report Moving back to Parents House • House and Apartment Sharing is at High Levels CPS - Current Population Survey; HVS - Housing Vacancies and Homeownership; ACS – American Community Survey

31. Household formation in decline

32. Young HHs Have not been Forming HHs at Normal Rates

33. HH composition trends will continue:

34. HH composition trends will continue

35. Single and single parent HHs

36. The Millennials: here they come!

37. How are the Millennialschanging everything?

38. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Gen Y” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

39. Owning versus Renting - future housing choices

40. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Gen Y Perspective on Work/Living” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

42. The Gen Y view of owning a home differs from their parents.

43. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Gen Y View on Home Ownership” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

44. “Self Supportive” housing – new owners will place different demands on their homes

45. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Self Supportive Housing” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

46. The Tailwind in the market: Boomers and Millennials converge on the same housing choice: Urban, walkable, connected, smaller, affordable, green

47. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “Tailwinds” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.

48. The NEW FRU

49. What the new frugality means for housing?

50. Housing Virginia Video Presentations “The New FRU” by John Martin Click to view video - Internet connection is required. Disclaimer: Videos in the PowerPoint will not play on a mobile device. Please access these documents from a laptop or desktop to enjoy the complete presentation.