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Business Futures in a Digital Age

Business Futures in a Digital Age. Club of Amsterdam January 25 th 2006. Mike Jackson, Chairman. www.shapingtomorrow.com. People Profit (Value) Planet. Increasing responsibility Increasing complexity Increasing accountability. Changing environment. Absolute respect for:.

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Business Futures in a Digital Age

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  1. Business Futures in a Digital Age Club of Amsterdam January 25th 2006 Mike Jackson, Chairman www.shapingtomorrow.com

  2. People Profit (Value) Planet Increasing responsibility Increasing complexity Increasing accountability Changing environment • Absolute respect for: Fast paced, uncertain, complicated, dynamic Source: “Cannibals with Forks”; John Elkington Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  3. But, how to see the future fast enough? • Avoid re-inventing the wheel • Earlier warnings • Save money and time • Reduce staff frustration • Increase innovation • Reduce risk • Serve stakeholders better Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  4. If you don’t know where your going … Any bus will get you there!!! Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  5. A changing global weather map Sustainability - FTSE4Good - taxation shifts Technology Networked World Personalisation Accessibility Demographics Globalisation Asia Economy Well-being Energy Environment Security Surprises Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  6. Betfair - Leisure Skype - Telecommunications RFID - Most industries Blogs - Media ? Online sports betting exchange VOIP (Voice over Internet) Radio frequency identifier device News, opinions, communities Increasing business surprises Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  7. Business issues • Strategic planning too slow • Hierarchies to unwieldy • Shorter shelf lives • Multiple distribution channels • Non-traditional competition • Lean thinking • High value added • More choice • Minimise risk • Increasing need for future intelligence! Source: 2500 organisations: January 2005; response rate 28% - 540 replies Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  8. Succeeding in an Uncertain World Three key imperatives • “corporations will have developed a new dynamic approach to strategy formulation - collaborative, drawing on key signals from all quarters, and constantly evolving in the light of new circumstances” • “leaders of these corporations will seek to build resilience and flexibility into the very fabric of the organization, by developing a set of core capabilities “ • “corporations who succeed in the future will be those whose leaders remain steadfast in the face of uncertainty, and who have the qualities to manage change effectively” Source: accenture - http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/login/nav.cfm?z4=stratItems&id=1026 Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  9. The need for futurist toolshas never been greater!

  10. New players Retail Systems Alert Shaping Tomorrow Club of Amsterdam APF New services Trend Scouts (trendwatching.com) Innovation/ideation companies Futures databases/electronic surveys Many more consultancies seemingly adding foresight capabilities The changing futures studies scene First casualties • Overmorgen New alliances • Future Foundation/ Experian • Outsights/MORI • Corporate clubs Personal observation • An industry is being created but mainly beyond its traditional players. It remains fragmented. • No dominant professional players – yet! • Futures studies still stuck in a paradigm similar to that which the Media industry faces • The winners may not even be born yet! Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  11. The business pioneers Hewlett Packard BT Lufthansa Shell BASF Daimler Chrysler Volvo Siemens Philips Lufthansa Ericcson Aventis Procter & Gamble Why Long gestation times Big bets Innovation Who uses future intelligence … • Commonalities • Anticipation • Change • Creativity • Initiative • Organisation • Standards • Teamwork • BIG BUSINESS but its changing! • ST: 8000 users; 2500 business people; 150 clients Source: Corporate Foresight in Europe Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  12. Decisioneering Forecasting systems Decision support systems Data mining Econometric modeling Pattern recognition Risk analysis Simulation Optimisers Patent analysis Scenario planning Horizon scanning Expert networks New approaches Open and closed Increasing sophistication Greater quantities of data Better presentation Improved customisation Wider distribution More take up Tools integration Rise of the aggregators Outsourced search Web based Real time Futurist tools Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  13. How will business futures be different? • Greater scrutiny • Greater accountability • Greater expectations • Greater value added • Greater complexity • Greater risks • Greater opportunities • Treadmill of ever increasing demand • Futurist tools can help you stay one step ahead Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

  14. Thanks for listening Website: www.shapingtomorrow.com Contact: Dr. Michael Jackson, Chairman (H)ome: 0044 (0)1 902 851918 (O)ffice: 0044 (0)1 902 851985 (M)obile: 0044 (0)7966 155912 (E)mail: mike.jackson@shapingtomorrow.com (S)kype: shapingtomorrow Shaping Tomorrow: all rights reserved

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