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INTERNATIONAL STUDENT MARKET. What is the state of the U.S. international student market? How can independent schools structure programs that are sustainable and aligned with their mission?. The Market: Higher Education. Snapshot of the U.S. higher ed international student market.
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What is the state of the U.S. international student market? • How can independent schools structure programs that are sustainable and aligned with their mission?
Snapshot of the U.S. higher ed international student market 1 million+Number of international students attending U.S. colleges and universitiesStudent and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP), U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement $39.4 billionContribution by international students to the U.S. economy in 2016U.S. Department of Commerce 22% U.S. share of globally mobile students in 2016 Institute of International Education (IIE)/Project Atlas Nearly halfAlmost 50 percent of the international students in the U.S. in 2016–2017 came from China (32.5%) and India (17.3%). Institute of International Education (IIE)/Open Doors 2017
Softening market: 3% decline in new international enrollment in U.S.in 2016 after more than a decade of steady growth Cindy Le, Deepti Mani, and Lisa Meritz, “Recruiting International Students During Turbulent Times,” World Education Services (July 25, 2018)
Enrollment shifts vary by sending countries. • Recent U.S. government data (December 2017 to March 2018) show both modest and sharp decreases, plus a few positive enrollment trends: • China: -1.5% • India: -0.27% • Germany: -10.1% • Mexico: -4.3% • East Asia: -1.8% • Southeast Asia: +0.2% • South Asia: -0.18% • Brazil: +4% • Nigeria: +4.17% • Stefen Trines, “Latest SEVIS Data: Number of International Students in the U.S. Is Declining,” World Education News & Reviews (May 8, 2018)
Enrollment shifts vary by institution. • Data from a survey by six higher ed groups show the varying impacts of market changes in undergraduate international applications for Fall 2017: • 38% of colleges/universities report a decrease • 35% of colleges/universities report an increase • 27% of colleges/universities report no change • “While a majority of institutions are not seeing decreases … many institutions have based their financial plans in part on sustained increases in enrollments of full-paying international undergraduates.” • Elizabeth Redden, “Will International Students Stay Away?” Inside Higher Ed (March 13, 2017)
Factors impacting higher ed market: Rise of other education markets • United Kingdom: Increased focus on transnational education/ opening of international branch campuses • ICEF Monitor, “UK Government Signals Increasing Emphasis on Transnational Education” (March 28, 2017) • Australia: 13% increase in international students from 2016 to 2017 • Canada: 20% increase in international students from 2016 to 2017 • China: 10%+ increase in international students in 2017 • Germany: 5.5% increase in international students in 2017 Stefan Trines, “Latest SEVIS Data: Number of International Students in the U.S. Is Declining,” World Education News & Reviews (May 8, 2018)
Factors impacting higher ed market: Tuition U.S. has highest tuitions worldwide.Average annual tuition fee by public institutions at bachelor level (2015–2016): Niall McCarthy, “The U.S. Leads the World in Tuition Fees,” Forbes (September 12, 2017) Facing state cuts, universities increased international tuition/fees. “Citing a need to expand support services, some public universities are charging differentiated tuition rates or hiking fees for international undergraduate students. … But not all the revenue raised from these differential tuition rates is directed toward support services [for international students].” Elizabeth Redden, “Fee for Being Foreign,” Inside Higher Ed (May 8, 2015)
Factors impacting higher ed market: Changing demographics and policies Declining birthrates in many Asian countries In addition to ongoing population decline in Japan, “Taiwan will see a decline in its youth population of around 46% between 2015 and 2050. Thailand will experience a 38% drop in the same period, with South Korea [experiencing] a 31% decline and China 21% ... China’s demographic decline could have even wider implications, regionally and globally, due to the large number of Chinese students [over 550,000] who go abroad for university education.”Yojana Sharma, “Declining Populations Point to a Sombre Future for HE,” University World News (April 6, 2018) Change in government funding in Saudi Arabia In 2016, the Saudi government cut funding for international education scholarships, resulting in a 14% drop in the number of students coming to the U.S.Institute of International Education, “Open Doors Fact Sheet: Saudi Arabia” (2017)
Factors impacting higher ed market: China’s investment in higher ed China is undertaking efforts to end “brain drain” and become a higher ed powerhouse by 2050.“China’s investment in higher education shows no sign of abating as it looks to build a modern knowledge economy.” Rachael Pells, “China’s Brain Drain Is Ending,” Inside Higher Ed (March 1, 2018) China’s development of international branch campuses “China is developing its own forms of transnational higher education within China and slowly but surely diverting the flows of internationally mobile students to its own international branch campuses at home.” Catherine Montgomery, “China’s Higher Education Megaproject,” University World News(May 26, 2017)
Factors impacting higher ed market: Concerns about safety and welcome • In a survey of 2,104 students from 150 countries, a third of the respondents considering college in the U.S. for 2017 and 2018 said that their interest had decreased because of the current political climate. • Top reasons cited: • Concern about the current administration: 68.9% • Worries about travel restrictions: 54.6% • Worries about personal safety: 52.5% • Cost: 50.2% • Perception of prejudice/discrimination against people from certain countries: 48.0% • Belief that Americans are less welcoming to international students than in the past: 45.3% • EAB Enrollment Services/Royall & Company, “Effect of the Current Political Environment on International Student Enrollment, 2017”
Factors impacting higher ed market: Political volatility Geopolitics play a crucial role in international higher education. “The sudden ordered withdrawal of thousands of Saudi students from Canada has served as a sober reminder for colleges of the geopolitical risks of relying heavily on any single population of international students for tuition revenue... “What, for example, would be the fallout of China blocking the study of Chinese nationals in the United States as part of the trade war, or Russia’s doing so in response to American sanctions? What if Canada would offend the Indian government? All possible, although it looks like the most significant political actions to affect international student flows have been taken by the governments—the U.S. and the U.K.—that receive the greatest economic benefits from mobility.” Elizabeth Redden, “For International Students, Shifting Choices of Where to Study,” Inside Higher Ed (August 24, 2018)
College and university response to softening international market Findings from a recent research report: Institutions planning to increase or change recruitment strategies: Plans to increase use of social media (78%), domestic travel for “backyard” recruitment (72%), enhanced marketing automation (66%), recruitment by recent international alumni (66%), networking with foreign high school counselors (63%), and placement agents (52%) Three-quarters of the institutions plan to change target countries:Countries/regions to be prioritized: Latin American and Caribbean countries (60%), China (51%), India (44%), Southeast Asia (43%), East Asia excluding China (36%) #YouAreWelcomeHere This grassroots communication campaign now includes 300 institutions. Cindy Le, Deepti Mani, and Lisa Meritz, “Recruiting International Students During Turbulent Times,” World Education Services (July 25, 2018)
College and university response to softening international market Some colleges aim to allay worries and provide more interaction. “Tufts [University] set up a travel hotline for international students and scholars. The University of New Hampshire sent representatives to China and India to encourage students who had been admitted to actually enroll. Eastern Michigan University put up banners on their lightpoles featuring photos of international students. Temple hosted a week of activities, including a speed-dating style cultural exchange.”Stacy Teicher Khadaroo, “International Students to US: Do You Really Want Us?” TheChristian Science Monitor (July 7, 2018)
Snapshot of the international student market at U.S. independent schools 31,000 Number of students on F-1 visas in NAIS schools in 2015 Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) 850 Number of NAIS schools that enrolled international students between 2005–2015SEVP (special report prepared for NAIS)Tripled, from 2004 to 2016Number of international students in secondary schools 42%Percent of international secondary students in U.S. who are from ChinaChristine Farrugia, Globally Mobile Youth: Trends in International Secondary Students in the United States, 2013–2016, Institute of International Education (2017)
Phenomenal growth in international students studying in the U.S. from 2004 to 2016, followed by recent slowing • Growth tied closely to aspiration for U.S. higher education • “International secondary student numbers more than tripled from 2004 to 2016, but the growth has been slowing in recent years. The annual growth rate of F-1 diploma-seeking students was 8 percent from Fall 2013 to Fall 2014, followed by 3 percent growth in Fall 2015 and 1 percent growth in Fall 2016. • “Most [~72 percent] international secondary students in the United States ultimately seek to enroll in higher education.” • Growth of schools outpacing growth of students • “The increase in schools enrolling international students outpaces the growth in student numbers, suggesting that there may be greater competition for students among high schools.” • Christine Farrugia, Globally Mobile Youth: Trends in International Secondary Students in the United States, 2013–2016, Institute of International Education (2017)
Four risk factors of recent proposed changes to U.S. immigration policies • The legal risk: Will new immigration policies or enforcement priorities affect the issuance of student visas for appreciable numbers of foreign students seeking to study in the U.S.? • The demand risk: Will a new approach to immigration lead to broad perceptual changes that impact demand for U.S. education relative to other popular destinations? • The political risk: Will tighter immigration controls, coupled with a tilt toward protectionism, lead to reciprocal or retaliatory measures from other countries, potentially curbing the flow of students in one or both directions? • The currency risk: Will the dollar … return to earth? Or will it continue to strengthen, driving up the relative price for U.S. education (and reducing the relative price for Canadian education)? • Pete Upham, as quoted in “3x3 International Student Recruitment,” EMA article, www.enrollment.org
Admission directors report concerns from international families about U.S. political environment • “International families applying for the 2017–2018 year expressed the following concerns [to admission officers]: • Perception that the U.S. is less welcoming: 35% • Increased cost of education due to strength of U.S. dollar: 34% (For boarding schools, the number was 49%.) • Perception that it will be more difficult to obtain a visa: 30% • Worry that visa requirements will change: 30% • All of the above: 25% / None of the above: 24%” • The Enrollment Management Association, International Enrollment Trends (June 2017)
Despite concerns about the political environment in the U.S., the 2017–2018 international student enrollment was steady. • Of the 407 NAIS day and boarding schools that responded to the survey: • 46% reported steady international enrollment. • 40% reported an increase. Half of these schools believe that the increase will continue. • NAIS, How Schools Recruit and Support International Students 2017–18 (April 2018)
Reliance on China for international student recruitment • China is the primary recruiting target for the NAIS schools that responded to the survey: • 88% recruit students from China. • Other countries from which most survey respondents are likely to recruit include Hong Kong (71%), South Korea (69%), Vietnam (68%), and Germany (65%) • NAIS, How Schools Recruit and Support International Students 2017–18 (April 2018)
Growing demand for English medium K–12 international schools Year-over-year growth in number of schools: 6.3% 9,605 Englishmedium K-12 international schools worldwide Year-over-year growth in enrollment: 7%5.1 million in total student population worldwide Indicator of global mobility “Approximately 20% of [international school] students are the children of expatriate families … seeking a school offering the language of learning and curriculum from their home country. However, the vast majority of international school students today are the children of local families choosing, what they consider to be, the best possible education close to home to prepare their child for university overseas and global careers.” ICEF Monitor, “Annual Survey Finds Continued Growth in International Schools,” quoting ISC Research (September 5, 2018)
A thoughtful and comprehensive approach: Five guiding principles 1. Gain a full understanding of the market. 2. Build the necessary foundation. Take actions such as enriching the current global curriculum, developing technology infrastructure and managing staffing and logistical issues. 3. Maintain brand alignment. Admission teams need the backing of school leadership to manage successful expansion while maintaining the cultural and academic standards of their home campus in a new environment. 4. Commit budget dollars to get it right. Travel is a significant new budget line item that must be justified to leadership. Schools must take the time to travel to new countries and understand that the ROI can take time. 5. Ensure professional development for admission directors. Admission directors need support in expanding their knowledge—from learning more about a student’s home culture in order to understand expectations in housing and food to interpreting ESL test scores for admission and placement. Adapted from Heather Hoerle, “What Schools Should Know Before Jumping Into the International Market,” NAIS Independent Ideas blog (May 16, 2016)
Need to diversify recruitment: Lessons from higher ed Diversification is a key market dynamic in global mobility. “China and India must continue to be a focus for educators and recruiters as they remain unmatched in terms of their overall scale and growth potential. But there is also ever more reason to build enrollments from other important growth markets.”ICEF Monitor, “New Study Forecasts Slowing Growth in International Student Mobility” (February 17, 2018) Colleges that are overreliant on a few markets are more vulnerable. “Institutions which are not perceived to be high ranked or are not located close to major cities or [that have] experienced challenges with student experiences or [are] overreliant on few markets (e.g., Saudi or China or India) will be the first to get hurt.” Rahul Choudaha, quoted in Elizabeth Redden, “International Enrollments: From Flat to Way Down,” Inside Higher Ed (September 5, 2017)
Need to diversify recruitment “Numerous factors can and will impact enrollment ... Therefore, it behooves schools not to take any market for granted and to anticipate changes in this potentially volatile market…. from an admission standpoint, [schools] are (or should be) diversifying their outreach overseas in order to be less reliant on any one region/country.” Pete Upham, as quoted in “3x3 International Student Recruitment,” EMA article, www.enrollment.org School Example: Hawaii Preparatory School “Over the years, we have deliberately decreased the numbers of students per country we admit … and increased the number of countries represented, with an eye toward diversification. We have made incremental shifts, and our goal is that every country must represent less than 10% of our boarding population.” Joshua D. Clark, “Advice From a Road Warrior: Ins and Outs of International Student Recruitment,” EMA article, www.enrollment.org
Questions to ask before starting an international program 1. “How will this decision help us fulfill our school’s mission?” How will the educational benefits of an international program be a mutual reward? “A school that is not fully committed to the needs of this new population may find its reputation affected negatively on a much larger scale.” 2. “What will these students need that is different, or additional, to what we offer now?”Consider areas such as housing, English-language proficiency assistance, and help with travel/vacation time. “Above all, international students need the faculty to know something about their cultures” and understand the different academic and behavioral expectations. 3. “How will our school meet those needs? Do we have the financial ability to meet those needs?” “Some needs may require more personnel or changes in job descriptions.” Jennifer O’Connor, with Ann Vogel and Ioana Wheeler, “Starting an International Program and Strengthening and Building Out an Existing Program,” NAIS article, www.nais.org(June 27, 2018)
28-month timeline to prepare to enroll international students Year Three Orientation planning; calendar decisions Solicit, screen, visit, choose host families Acceptances and enrollment Match students and host families Staff training Orientation for students and host families Jennifer O’Connor, “Timeline for Starting an International Student Program,” NAIS article, www.nais.org(June 7, 2018) Year One Stakeholder discussions Finalize housing decisions Apply for SEVP approval Administrative planning Community discussions among depts Budget approval process Year Two Community outreach (alumni, parents) Admission planning (travel) Create bilingual enrollment/host family contracts Create new (possibly bilingual) school forms Work with IT Receive approval from SEVP Further admission work Admission cycle begins Budget approval process
Key roles in supporting international students Director of Admission/International Admission: The outward “face” of the school; needs to be acquainted with the cultures of the students who apply International Student Coordinator/Director: A resource for the admission office and for students, faculty, and parents Homestay Coordinator Principal Designated School Official: Needed for SEVIS certification Faculty: Teachers’ observations of a student’s behavior and adaptation to the school climate is key to a program’s success. Faculty will need training on cultural literacy. College Counselor: International parents have many questions and high expectations; some families may hire an outside agent to help their student. Health and Well-Being Staff: They need to be well-trained and culturally aware. Residential Life/Dorm Parent Coordinator: Provides cross-cultural training for dorm staff, sets policies about roommate arrangements, serves as point person for parent communication. Adapted from Jennifer O’Connor, with Ann Vogel and Ioana Wheeler, “Starting an International Program and Strengthening and Building Out an Existing Program,” NAIS article, www.nais.org(June 27, 2018)
Areas needing legal considerations • NAIS Legal Advisories • International Students and Homestay Programs • Opportunities With F-1 and J-1 Visas • Housing • Transportation • Non-School Schedules • Off-Campus Behavior Policies • Visa Processes • Orientation • Insurance • Contracts
Homestay basics Housing is a key element in student safety. “The school ensures appropriate and comprehensive safety, well-being, supervision, support, and care of international students, including in housing, if housing is provided.” NAIS, Principles of Good Practice for the Education of International Students in Independent Schools Weighing benefits and risks “Schools considering adding homestay programs or revisiting their existing programs should weigh the benefits … against the costs and risks, focusing on the severity of each type of risk and the likelihood of that risk coming to fruition. Benchmarking with other schools, reviewing the school’s long-term forecasts, exploring the market of vendors for international programs, and consulting with legal counsel can help a school design a homestay program customized to fit the school’s goals, resources, and culture.” Heather J. Broadwater, “International Students and Homestay Programs: A Legal Perspective,” NAIS legal advisory, www.nais.org(October 15, 2015)
Homestay basics • Addressing well-being concerns • Background checks for all persons 18 and over, including overnight visitors • No guns; no smoking • Character references • Clear expectations • HIPAA waivers and medical consent forms • Consistency among families—food, transportation, rules • Benefits of homestays • Replicates natural family • Immerses student in language and culture • Provides stability of adults • Gives personalized care • Allows students to pursue activities unrelated to school • Encourages long-term relationships between families Ann Vogel, “Homestay Programs for International Students,” NAIS webinar, www.nais.org(Jan. 4, 2018)
Marketing basics • To reach potential students, NAIS schools most frequently use their website/social media, recommendations from current/alumni families or others, and placement agents, according to a recent NAIS survey. • To recruit Chinese students in particular, schools use: • placement agents (63%); • website/social media (61%); • recommendations from current and alumni families or others (51%). • A quarter of the respondents to the survey use recruiting trips to connect with potential Chinese students. International student recruiting events are not widely used. • NAIS, How Schools Recruit and Support International Students 2017–18 (April 2018)
Marketing basics • Tips for marketing your school in an authentic way • Have a differentiated value proposition: Since many schools highlight similar recruitment messages (e.g.: a beautiful campus, quality teaching), you need to highlight what makes your school unique—location, culture, student experience, etc. • Tailor your marketing campaign: Virtual reality/360-degree photos can provide a more realistic experience of your campus for families who are unable to visit. Determine how families and students receive information and provide information in those media. • Build strong relationships with agents. Adapted from Ian Cann and Kevin Merges, “Tips for Understanding and Working With International Student Recruitment Agents,” NAIS webinar takeaways, www.nais.org(March 29, 2018) 35
Recruiting travel basics Travel vs. “armchair recruitment”: “Armchair recruiting is certainly a smart way to go if you have little to no international recruitment budget. However, building a robust international admission program that provides consistency in student quality and yield requires travel.” Making the best use of travel dollars “We group countries according to past performance and plan accordingly: The Steady Pipelines … require visits to maintain relationships … Open & Ready for Business … require further travel and development to increase numbers ... New Frontiers … represent new markets, or older markets that we have closed for a while, and we make scouting trips to understand the potential. “Next, we rank the countries based on strategic priorities and yield from past trips. “Finally, we start putting the countries together like a puzzle to see how we can travel as productively and cost-effectively as possible.” Joshua D. Clark, “Advice From a Road Warrior: Ins and Outs of International Student Recruitment,” EMA article, www.enrollment.org
Working with international student agents • Considerations for a contract: • Define respective roles and responsibilities • Review business plan: Marketing strategy, budget, etc. • Give key performance indicators: Number and quality of students • Payment terms: Are there reimbursable expenses? • Exclusivity: Consider offering exclusivity only after the agents have proved that they are reliable partners. Agree on grounds for termination of exclusivity. • Dispute resolution guidelines: Outline how disputes will be resolved. • Duration of contract Most common forms of compensation Commission-based Fee per head Retainer fee Advising fee Adapted from ICEF, ICEF Guide for K–12 Independent Schools: Working With International Student Recruitment Agents, NAIS resource, www.nais.org(July 26, 2017)
Working with international student agents • Tips for building a strong relationship with agents • “Provide agent training [on] concepts like a mission statement, the American accreditation system, or the importance of a valid letter of recommendation... • “Visit the agent in-person. • “Create agent-exclusive collateral. • “Craft your own agreements. • “Watch for signs of unqualified or ineffective agents.” • Ian Cann and Kevin Merges, “Tips for Understanding and Working With International Student Recruitment Agents,” NAIS webinar takeaways, www.nais.org(March 29, 2018)
Working with international student agents Schools identify agents/consultants in several different ways. Few proactively research. Most conduct some form of vetting. How NAIS schools identify agents How NAIS schools vet agents NAIS, How Schools Recruit and Support International Students 2017–18 (April 2018)
Fundraising tips Take a mission-driven and student-centered approach: Articulate how your international student populationcontributes to and aligns with your mission. Integrate international perspectives: Make use ofinternational reps on your board, regional leadership councils/parent networks, etc. Manage cultural norms thoughtfully: Stay informed about news and trends occurring in the country. Be mindful of appearances in what you bring and where you stay. Create a valued community among international families. Name a contact person to manage the relationship with international families. Extend the community. Visit the countries and come prepared with knowledge of each family and the progress of their child. Make strategic international trips at least three times per year. Adapted from Mark Amone, Tara Inman, and Bob Weston, “International Student Programs: Six Tips for International Fundraising,” NAIS article, www.nais.org(June 8, 2018)
Resources • Cindy Le, Deepti Mani, and Lisa Meritz, “Recruiting International Students During Turbulent Times,” World Education Services • Stefan Trines, “Latest SEVIS Data: Number of International Students in the U.S. Is Declining,” World Education News & Reviews • Elizabeth Redden, “Will International Students Stay Away?” Inside Higher Ed • ICEF Monitor, “UK Government Signals Increasing Emphasis on Transnational Education” • Niall McCarthy, “The U.S. Leads the World in Tuition Fees,” Forbes • Elizabeth Redden, “Fee for Being Foreign,” Inside Higher Ed • Yojana Sharma, “Declining Populations Point to a Sombre Future for HE,” University World News • Institute of International Education, “Open Doors Fact Sheet: Saudi Arabia” • Rachael Pells, “China’s Brain Drain Is Ending,” Inside Higher Ed • Catherine Montgomery, “China’s Higher Education Megaproject,” University World News • EAB Enrollment/Royall & Co., “Effect of the Current Political Environment on International Student Enrollment, 2017” • Elizabeth Redden, “For International Students, Shifting Choices of Where to Study,” Inside Higher Ed • Stacy Teicher Khadaroo, “International Students to US: Do You Really Want Us?” TheChristian Science Monitor • Christine Farrugia, Globally Mobile Youth: Trends in International Secondary Students in the United States, 2013-2016, IIE • The Enrollment Management Association, “3x3 International Student Recruitment” • The Enrollment Management Association, “International Enrollment Trends” • NAIS, How Schools Recruit and Support International Students 2017-18 • ICEF Monitor, “Annual Survey Finds Continued Growth in International Schools” • Heather Hoerle, “What Schools Should Know Before Jumping Into the International Market,” NAIS Independent Ideas blog • ICEF Monitor, “New Study Forecasts Slowing Growth in International Student Mobility” • Elizabeth Redden, “International Enrollments: From Flat to Way Down,” Inside Higher Ed • Joshua D. Clark, “Advice From a Road Warrior: Ins and Outs of International Student Recruitment,” The Enrollment Management Association • Jennifer O’Connor, with Ann Vogel and Ioana Wheeler, “Starting an International Program and Strengthening an Existing Program,” NAIS • Jennifer O’Connor, “Timeline for Starting an International Student Program,” NAIS • Heather J. Broadwater, “International Students and Homestay Programs: A Legal Perspective,” NAIS • Debra P. Wilson and Whitney Silverman, “International Students: Opportunities With F-1 and J-1 Visas,“ NAIS • NAIS, Principles of Good Practice for the Education of International Students in Independent Schools • Ann Vogel, “Homestay Programs for International Students,” NAIS • Ian Cann and Kevin Merges, “Tips for Understanding and Working With International Student Recruitment Agents,” NAIS • ICEF, ICEF Guide for K-12 Independent Schools: Working With International Student Recruitment Agents, NAIS • Mark Amone, Tara Inman, and Bob Weston, “International Student Programs: Six Tips for International Fundraising,” NAIS