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Navigating Actuarial Challenges in Public Pension Management Amid Economic Uncertainty

Explore asset smoothing methods, actuarial assumptions, and sustainability in public pension plans. Learn about market values, asset corridors, and the impact of economic turmoil on contribution rates. Presented by Ed Friend & Greg Stump at the NCPERS PUBLIC SAFETY Conference 2009.

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Navigating Actuarial Challenges in Public Pension Management Amid Economic Uncertainty

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  1. Actuarial Issues Affecting Public Pensions in the Current Economic Turmoil NCPERS PUBLIC SAFETY Conference 2009 Presented by Ed Friend & Greg Stump, EFI Actuaries

  2. Presentation Agenda • Public Plans Committee • Asset Smoothing Methods • “Market Values” • Actuarial Assumptions, Experience, and Sustainability

  3. Public Plans Committee Background GASB Invitation to Comment Suggestions for Improvements in Accounting

  4. Asset Smoothing Methods Spreading gains/losses “Corridors”

  5. Pay Now or Pay Later • Ideally costs would be a level % of pay year after year • This is unfortunately not possible • How much can contributions be smoothed? • Asset smoothing • Amortization of gains and losses

  6. Asset Smoothing: Spreading • Example: 5 year smoothing • Gains/(Losses) based on returns above or below that assumed • Year 1: $10 M gain • Year 2: $20 M loss • Year 3: $5 M gain • Year 4: $80 M loss • Year 5 Market Value = $600 Million • Actuarial Value = $667 Million (recognizing 1/5 of each prior year’s gain or loss at a time) • Year 4 loss will be fully recognized by Year 9

  7. Asset Smoothing: Years • 5 year smoothing was the standard for a long time • 3 year smoothing not uncommon • Now, systems are looking at 7, 10, or even 15 year smoothing • Same gain/loss recognition process

  8. Asset Smoothing: Years

  9. Asset Corridors • “Corridor” = range of values surrounding market value of assets, within which actuarial value is constrained • Example: 20% corridor means actuarial value cannot be outside of the range 80%-120% of market value • Came into play for majority of plans in 2008 or 2009

  10. Asset Corridors • 80%-120% corridor was most common • Many systems are considering or using a wider corridor to soften the blow of recent losses • 25%, 30%, higher • Must be very careful about size of corridor (can be too high) • “Hitting the corridor” (at 120% level) means that 20% of losses are not yet recognized.

  11. What is Market Value? Facts and Myths

  12. “Market Values” • Assets – Value on books: amount of $ assets expected to be worth in open market. • “Liabilities” – no true definition of market value; not relevant for public plans • PPC has opposed the use of so-called MVL (“Market Value of Liabilities”) primarily due to lack of relevance/ usefulness

  13. Actuarial Assumptions, Experience, and Sustainability Before the crash After the crash

  14. Chart 1: Before the Crash

  15. Chart 2: After the Crash

  16. Actuarial Assumptions, Experience, and Sustainability What Next? Testing the Sensitivity of contribution rates to various investment return scenarios

  17. Chart 3: Softening the Blow

  18. Chart 4: Recovery of Half of the Initial 30% Loss, followed by gains Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3 * 21.5% return in year 1 represents a recovery of half of the year 0 losses, i.e. [(1-.3)x(1+.215) = .85]

  19. Chart 5: Half Recovery, then 0% for 2 Years Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3 * 21.5% return in year 1 represents a recovery of half of the year 0 losses, i.e. [(1-.3)x(1+.215) = .85]

  20. Chart 6: Half Recovery, then 0% for 2 Years, followed by four years of gains Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3 * 21.5% return in year 1 represents a recovery of half of the year 0 losses, i.e. [(1-.3)x(1+.215) = .85]

  21. Chart 7: Recovery Reversed by end of year Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3 * 21.5% return in year 1 represents a recovery of half of the year 0 losses, i.e. [(1-.3)x(1+.215) = .85]

  22. Chart 8: Long Term: Actual < Expected Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3

  23. Chart 9: Anticipating Lower Returns, Long Term Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3

  24. Chart 10: Lower Returns Too Conservative? Graph reflects smoothing and extended amortization as in Chart 3

  25. Thank You Ed Friend: edfriend@efi-actuaries.com Greg Stump: gstump@efi-actuaries.com

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