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ROAD TO WAR

ROAD TO WAR. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT MULTIPLE THEATERS/HIGH OPTEMPO. VW 16 CENTCOM. CUBAN REFUGEES SOUTHCOM/ACOM. LRC EUCOM. CINC USPACOM. MRC USFK Fall 2000. JTF PACIFICA. WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00. EMERGING CRISIS IN PACIFICA.

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ROAD TO WAR

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  1. ROAD TO WAR

  2. STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTMULTIPLE THEATERS/HIGH OPTEMPO VW 16 CENTCOM CUBAN REFUGEES SOUTHCOM/ACOM LRC EUCOM CINC USPACOM MRC USFK Fall 2000 JTF PACIFICA WITHIN THE US - HEATED FORIEGN POLICY DEBATE - 200K RES COMP CALL-UP JUN 00 EMERGING CRISIS IN PACIFICA

  3. THEATER ENVIRONMENT • Emergence of assertive regional powers with clashing agendas • Long standing ethnic and national divisions within region • Regional competition for control of natural resources • US strategic options influenced by • World wide military requirements • Domestic political and economic considerations • Long term regional objectives

  4. SURRAN Japan Chosun CHOSUN MRC Crisis - #1 regional priority - FDO 1&2 deployed - War likely fall 2000 Theater Situation c. 2000 Okinawa Eastland East Isle Guam East Sulu Sea Oil Fields - Huge new deposits - Ownership contested Pacifica PACIFICA Crisis - UN Peace Keeping Operation fails - SURRAN introduction of forces

  5. Surran Japan THREATS: EASTLAND SURRAN PPF Chosun Okinawa Eastland East Isle PPF Guam Pacifica

  6. EASTLAND STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES • Establish regional leadership and role as world power. • Reduce US influence in western Pacific region. • Continue economic expansion; avoid direct confrontation with western market nations. • Assure access to and control of East Sulu Sea oil fields through friendly surrogate nations. • Support defeat of PACIFICA and supporting coalition forces. • Installation of a friendly, rebel government in PACIFICA with basing rights for EASTLAND forces.

  7. SURRAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES • Consolidate PACIFICA islands into “Greater Ethnic SURRAN” • Assure access and control of Sulu Sea oil fields • Continue economic expansion; exploit PACIFICA markets • Establish itself as a leading regional power

  8. SURRANIAN MILITARY OBJECTIVES • Defeat Pacifican and supporting coalition forces • Control of the Sulu Sea Island oil fields and supporting LOCs • Neutralization of US influence in the region

  9. PACIFICAN PEOPLES FRONT (PPF) PRA PPF: A coalition of insurgents and breakaway Army units united in their opposition to the existing government. Rebel army units located on LUZON; insurgents throughout the islands. SPM: Surranian Peoples Movement PRA: Pacifican Rebel Army PRA SPM Pacifica SPM PPF CONTROLLED AREAS PPF = SPM + PRA CONTESTED AREAS

  10. 1965 • 1946 • US grants PACIFICA independence. • PACIFICA & US sign defense pact. • SURRAN begins war of national liberation to gain independence. • 1955 • PACIFICA becomes charter member of South East Asia Treaty Organization. • SURRAN gains independence. • Denounces SEATO. • Allies itself w/ RUSSIA & EASTLAND. • 1965 • Surranian ethnic minority within PACIFICA begins insurgency on southern islands to gain independence from Luzon based PACIFICA government. Adopts name Surranian Peoples Movement (SPM). Road To War 1965 Pacifica 1965 SPM

  11. 1986 1986 1986 1986 • 1966 • PACIFICA President Luna declares martial law and seizes power. • US initiates military aid to PACIFICA. • SURRAN declares support for PACIFICA. Surranian separatist movement. • SURRAN discovers oil and begins military and economic build up. • 1986 • President Luna overthrown by “People’s Revolution”, tired of war and declining economy. Military backs the people during showdown. • SPM continued low level insurgency in south. Terrorism spread to northern islands to include Luzon. • SURRAN continues aid declaring “Asia for Asians” theme. Road To War Pacifica SPM

  12. 1988 I I 1987 1988 1988 1992 • 1987 • Failed negotiations result in US withdrawal from PACIFICA bases. • 1988 • PACIFICA military coup attempt foiled by loyal troops and threat of US intervention. US cuts off military aid. • Growing support for “Asia for Asian” movement among young military officers. Nationalistic PACIFICAN officers begin organizing. • SPM continued success in south. Insurgency spread to northern islands to include Luzon. • SURRAN continues aid, declaring “Asia for Asians” theme. • 1992 • Oil and substantial mineral deposits discovered vicinity of East Sulu Sea. Road To War SPM Attempted Coup SPM Oil discovered East Sulu Sea Pacifica SPM

  13. 1998 I I • 1990s • PACIFICA economy in doldrums. • Counterinsurgency against SPM failing. • AUG 1998 • 2nd PACIFICA military coup attempt fails; civil war erupts on Luzon. • SURRAN provides covert military aid and advisors to rebels and SPM insurgents. • Surranians declare support of army rebels and, “their just fight for freedom”. • SPM exploit situation to consolidate success in south. • APR-JUL 1999 • PACIFICA military stretched thin. US resumes military aid to salvage situation. • USMAGPAC arrives in PACIFCA. Road To War Pacifica 2nd Coup/Civil War SPM USMAGPAC SPM SPM USMAGPAC HQ 1ST SFG (FWD) CO A (+), 2nd Bn

  14. X MAY I I SF • MAR-APR 2000 • SPM and rebel army units form PPF, under Surranian pressure. • PPF announces formation of independent Republic of Tuguegardo. • MAY 2000 • PACIFICA government counter- attack inflicts heavy losses on PPF on Luzon and stabilizes the situation. • USMAGPAC expand to support PACIFICA army units supporting operations on Mindinao. Road To War Tuguegardo PPF PPF USMAGPAC Pacifica USMAGPAC HQ 1ST SFG (FWD) 2BN 1ST SF USMAGPAC

  15. XX XX XX (-) (-) III XXX PRA PRA PRA XX I I I I X X XX XX X (-) X X Situation 1 JUN 2000 approximate locations of Rebel ( ) and Loyalist ( ) forces and SPM ( ) forces in Northern Luzon Tuguegardo X III X XX Manila

  16. 2000 • JUN- JUL 2000 • UN brokered cease fire agreement • UNFORPAC initiates Peace Keeping Operations. • PPF refits and rearms. • Insurgency continues on Mindinaroa; SPM seize Palawan. • Challenges/local terrorist attacks on UN forces increase. • UN sponsored humanitarian operations disrupted by PPF. Road To War PPF ZOS ZOS PPF SPM Pacifica

  17. XX XX XX (-) (-) XXX PRA PRA PRA XX X X XX X X X X MEF X X XX Situation 1 JUL 2000 UNFORPAC approximate locations of Rebel ( ) Loyalist ( ) UNFORPAC ( ) SPM ( ) in Northern Luzon Tuguegardo III ZOS ZOS Manila ZOS ZOS

  18. SURRANIAN INTERVENTION • JUL 2000 • PPF refits and rearms. • PPF prepares to resume offensive across “ZOS”. • SURRAN preparations detected; US NCA directs planning and preparation to support PACIFICA. • JUL-OCT 2000 • SURRAN intervenes; lands forces on Luzon. • UNSCR calls for international support for PACIFICA. • UN forces prepare to withdraw from PACIFICA • US NCA orders deployment of JTF PACIFICA. • UN forces killed by snipers along ZOS; detachments held “hostage” by PPF Pacifica Surran

  19. SURRANIAN ACTIONS • SURRAN conducted landings at the “Invitation of the PPF” to help defend TUGUEGARDO and Surranian ethnic rights in the region. • Pronounced their mission as defensive and peaceful. Pledged not to attack the Pacifican government if not attacked. Intent is clearly to engage and defeat Pacifican forces. • Reaction to International opposition • Positions ground forces along northern UN ZOS • Initiates sniper attacks on UN patrols; takes UN hostages • Assumes an offensive posture while landing additional forces and supplies • Continues its support to PPF preparations for a renewed offensive

  20. Pacifica Crisis “The U.S. Responds”

  21. 1 JUL 00 NSC issues NSDD. SURRAN prep detected 3 JUL 00 JCS Warning Order. UN SC Resolution 761: Halt landings; begin force withdrawal. SURRAN landing 5 JUL 00 UN SC Resolution 763: Halt landings; begin force withdrawal within 10 days. 22 AUG 00 SURRAN harasses UN forces 8 OCT 00 UN forces begin pulling back from ZOS and prepare to redeploy from PACIFICA. 6 OCT 00 Maritime/Air Exclusion Zone Imposed. 16 OCT 00 SURRAN does not withdraw JTF FRAGO #1 issued. I Corps moves out of assembly areas to establish defensive positions. KEY EVENT TIME LINE EVENT DATE CRITICAL ACTION SURRAN does not withdraw 1 SEP 00 UN SC Resolution 794: 45 days to withdraw or be compelled to do so. Air and Maritime exclusion zone imposed in 35 days. JCS EXORD/C-Day.

  22. JTF PACIFICA JOA Pacifica Exclusion Zone Surran OCTOBER 2000JTF PACIFICA ESTABLISHED

  23. THEATER STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES • Restore territorial integrity of PACIFICA (Luzon) • Protection of East Sulu Sea oil and minerals to insure free and equitable access to benefits • Prevent expansion of the war beyond theater of operations • Minimize probability of renewed SURRAN offensive action • Assist reestablishment of legitimate and viable government of PACIFICA • Protect lives and property of US citizens

  24. XX (-) I I I I I I X REBEL ARMY SURRAN SPM XXX Situation 16 OCT 2000 Tuguegaro 39 (SR) XX (-) PRA XXXX SR 8 (SR) PRA XXXX 10 (SR) ZOS ZOS X Manila ZOS XX (-) PRA ZOS

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