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Population Figures

Population Figures. 6000 BC (Before Common Era): 5 million 1 CE: 250 million 1810: 1 billion 1960: 3 billion 2010: 6.8 billion (and counting) 2100: UN estimates 10 billion Currently 80% of the world’s people live in developing countries

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Population Figures

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  1. Population Figures • 6000 BC (Before Common Era): 5 million • 1 CE: 250 million • 1810: 1 billion • 1960: 3 billion • 2010: 6.8 billion (and counting) • 2100: UN estimates 10 billion • Currently 80% of the world’s people live in developing countries • UN estimates that over 90% of future population growth will occur in these already overpopulated countries

  2. Are there limits to growth?

  3. Malthus argued that the world’s population growth needs to slow Food production would not be able to keep up with the rapid growth of population Everyone’s quality of life will be destroyed Megaslums – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFgb1BdPBZo Thomas Malthus, 19th C Economist

  4. Demography • The study and analysis of population. Includes: • Population density • Population distribution • Dependency ratio • Population pyramids • Demographic transition models • Population projections

  5. Fertility Rate & Status of Women • Fertility Rate : Average number of live births each year for every woman of childbearing age For example: In Canada, the fertility rate is 1.57 children born/woman (2008 est.) So on average, most women have less than 2 children in their lifetime.

  6. Fertility Rate & Status of Women • economic development and the fertility rate of countries are strongly connected • decline in # of children a woman has frees her to improve her life & the lives of her children • better educated women have fewer children – tend to marry later and have fewer children, usually because they are better educated about contraception and better able to resist family pressure to have more children

  7. Fertility Rate & Status of Women • children of educated women also more likely to survive • know more about the importance of immunization, clean water, and good nutrition • study in Peru – showed infant mortality rate dropped for every year of schooling the mother had • key to improving status of women: education

  8. Demographic Transition Model (DTM) • Describes population change over time or transitions, in birth rates and death rates in industrialized societies over the past 200 years • Shift Happens Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4FJMJtt8dk&feature=related

  9. Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages • Stage 1 – Pre-Modern – Pre-Industrial • Small population growth • Balance between birth and death rates • Life expectancy LOW

  10. Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages • Stage 2 – Urbanizing / Industrializing – Developing Countries • Rise in population caused by decline in death rate (due to better health care, medicine, sanitation, technology, farming techniques, food supply, education, etc.) while birth rate remains high or rises • Rapid increase in population numbers due to improved medical and scientific advances to sustain life • Without a corresponding fall in birth rates this produces an imbalance, and the countries in this stage experience a large increase in population.

  11. Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages • Stage 3 – Mature / Industrializing • Decline in birth rate results in more stable population • Improved living standards • birth rates fall due to: • access to contraception, • increases in wages, • urbanization, • a reduction in subsistence agriculture, • an increase in the status and education of women, • a reduction in the value of children's work, • an increase in parental investment in the education of children and other social changes • Population growth begins to level off

  12. Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages • Stage 4 – Post Industrial • Characterized by stability (linked to economic stability) • Population age structure has become older due to low birth rates and death rates • Birth rates may drop to well below replacement level as has happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan, leading to a shrinking population, a threat to many industries that rely on population growth. • The large group born during stage two ages & creates an economic burden on the shrinking working population. • Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries.

  13. Demographic Transition Model – 5 stages • Stage 5 – De-industrializing • Birth rates drop below death rates • Represent countries that have undergone the economic transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information based industries called deindustrialization • Countries such as Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, England and most notably Japan, whose populations are now reproducing well below their replacement levels, are not producing enough children to replace their parent's generation.

  14. Changes in Canada’s Population & the World’s Population • Canada’s birth rate and death rate have been dropping steadily in the past 30 years • Overall – population is getting older • Will have significant effects on Canada’s health care system and social services

  15. Canada’s Population • Canada’s age structure – major factor in determining immigration policy • Currently – government strives for 1% of the population to be from immigration (about 200,000 immigrants /year) • However – currently only meeting 0.7%

  16. WHY? THINK – PAIR-SHARE: • Why will Canada’s low growth rate have significant effects on Canada’s health care system and social services? • Why is Canada’s age structure a major factor in determining our immigration policy (the number of people we allow into the country per year)?

  17. Demography What do populations tell us about what we need?

  18. Population Distribution • Refers to the way people are distributed across the Earth’s surface • Has always been uneven - High concentrations in small areas • Over 50% of the world’s population lives on only 5% of the land • 90% live on 20% of the land • Approximately 35% of world’s land not good for settlement

  19. Population Distribution • Concentration explained by: • Many areas of the Earth’ land are inhospitable (difficult to live in) due to: • Accessibility(i.e. to transportation and / or communication) • Climate(i.e. too hot or too cold), not enough rainfall • The Landscape(i.e. too mountainous or desert) • The Vegetation(i.e. access to food and shelter) • The Resources available(i.e. access to clean water)

  20. Population Distribution • In Canada – 80% of people live within 200km of our Southern border (the USA) • Most choose to live in areas where temperatures more moderate (i.e. not in North) • Majority of Canadians live in urban (city) centres

  21. Population Density • Refers to the number of people in a given area • Population density for an entire country – called a crude density • Calculated by dividing a country’s population by its area

  22. Population Density • 75% of the world’s population lives in Africa and Asia • Might seem overpopulated, but crude density shows that Africa is under-populated for its land area • Comprises 20.2% of the Earth’s landmass, yet only hold 12.7% of the Earth’s population • Europe – 3.3% landmass – holds 10% of Earth’s population

  23. WHY? HOW? • Why is there uneven population distribution in the world and in Canada? • How could population density affect the physical and human environment?

  24. Physical Factors Human Factors

  25. Demographic Tools - Population Census • To help governments maintain accurate records of its people, most countries conduct a population census every 5-10 years • Data includes population count, birthplace, age, sex, first language, level of literacy, employment, income, etc.

  26. WHY? HOW? • How and why is census data used to inform governments and their future plans (policies)?

  27. Demographic Tools - Population Pyramids • Show population structures of countries • Provide insight into “problems” and give reasons for shifts in population trends • Most basic: age-sex structure – shown in population pyramids

  28. Population Pyramid • Graph that shows the age and sex make up of a population • Shows percentage of people in each age group & percentage of males and females in each age group • Useful – helps predict future population trends • i.e. if few women of childbearing age, population may decrease due to low birth rate http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm

  29. Population Pyramids - Examples • There are 4 main types of Population Pyramids: • Expanding • Early Expanding • Contracting • Stable

  30. Expanding http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm

  31. Early Expanding http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm

  32. http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html Stable http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm Japan

  33. Contracting http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html http://www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/pyone.htm

  34. Population Pyramids - Growth

  35. Dependency Ratio / Load • Dependency ratio refers to the proportion of the population that is being supported by (or is DEPENDENT ON) the working-age-group (15-65 years old) • Those who work experience a greater financial burden if their country has a high dependency ratio • Africa – 40% of the population – under 15 years old • High birth rate • Expanding population • Stage 2 of DTM

  36. HOW? WHY? • How can governments use population pyramids to help inform their future plans (policies)? • Why is the dependency ratio of a country particularly important for governments to know?

  37. Overpopulation • Countries that have too many people for a given resource base and a given level of technological development • When exceeded its “carrying capacity” – level at which land can no longer support its people (i.e. low food supplies) • Result - Many people: • live in poverty • Lack adequate food, water, and shelter • Rely heavily on importing necessary goods

  38. Overpopulation - Responses • 1970s – China had one of the highest population growth rates in the world • 1 billion people – 1/5 world’s population at the time • Women averaged 6 children each

  39. China’s One Child Policy - 1979 • At this point - # of births reduced to 2.7 children per woman • Government offered rewards to families such as: • Free medical care • Monthly wage bonuses • Preferential housing • Extra pension income

  40. China’s One Child Policy • If family had a 2nd child – suffered penalties such as • Cancellation of benefits • Fines • Wage reductions

  41. China’s One Child Policy http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4OWJlyaHt0&feature=related • Problems: • Greater in urban areas due to financial benefits • Rural areas – reply on children as labourers – • Value sons above daughters • Some families resort to infanticide (murder) of female babies • Others ignore policy in favour of their desired family structure • Current Status: average 1.8 • children per woman • Still in effect today

  42. WHY? HOW? • Should governments have the power to control the population rate through legal means?

  43. Responses to Control Population Growth • Improve Technology • Though application of science, including: • Computers • Cell phones • TVs • Countries with higher levels of technology tend to have more developed economies

  44. Responses to Population Growth • Family Planning / Controlling Population Growth Rate • Reduced population reduces strain on resources (natural, economic, etc.) • Leads to a general increase in standard of living

  45. Responses to Population Growth • Increase Resource Base / Lessen Disparity • Use own resources to develop itself – could include: • Work force • Natural resources • Technology • Financial institutions

  46. Responses to Population Growth • Improve Literacy Rates • Giving a population skills to read will improve access to higher paying jobs • This in turn will improve overall quality of life and standard of living

  47. Responses to Population Growth • Increase Opportunities for Women • Leads to improved economic development for all

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