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GLOBEC's Contributions to Ecosystem-Based Management

This study identifies key areas where GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics) can make contributions to ecosystem-based management. It examines the near-term applications to current management, recruitment models incorporating climate influences, and the use of hydrodynamic models to inform tactical management strategies. It also explores future contributions to understanding bottom-up forcing in exploited marine ecosystems and indicators of future ecosystem change.

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GLOBEC's Contributions to Ecosystem-Based Management

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  1. Transition to EBMM. FogartyD. MountainJ. MarrariM KeisterA ChaudhuriJ. SteeleD. HaidvogelL. Botsford H. WangJ. PhinneyZ. Powell

  2. Key Areas where GLOBEC canMake Contributions to Management • Near Term Application to Current Management • Recruitment Models incorporating mechanistic understanding of climate influences • Application of hydrodynamic models to inform tactical management strategies (MPAs) -- Indicators of near-term population change

  3. Key Areas where GLOBEC canMake Contributions to Management • Future Contributions to Ecosystem-Based Management • Contributions to understanding and modeling of bottom-up forcing in exploited marine ecosystems • Application of hydrodynamic models to understand impacts on nutrient and lower trophic level dynamics -- Indicators of future ecosystem change

  4. Recruitment Models incorporating mechanistic • understanding of climate influences • Focus on low frequency environmental forcing • related to climate change • Key Issue is defining the risk of population collapse • – directly related to slope of recruitment curve • at the origin • GLOBEC process studies allow us to go beyond correlative approaches • Incorporate these recruitment models into age- structured harvesting models

  5. Application of hydrodynamic models to understand impacts on nutrient and lower trophic level dynamics • Can we predict upwelling dynamics under climate change -- critical issue in all our study regions • Can we predict timing and strength of stratification under climate change • Implications for nutrient regeneration

  6. Indicators of near-term population change • GLOBEC Broad-Scale/Long Term Observations can be used to detect changes in key ecosystem features affecting recruitment of target species • Traffic light representation of Salmon in the California Current • Need to compile list of candidate indicators

  7. Application of hydrodynamic models to inform • tactical management strategies (MPAs) • Particle tracking capabilities of GLOBEC numerical hydrodynamic models can be directly used to examine retention and dispersal of eggs/larvae from marine protected areas • -- Implications for sustainability of MPAs • -- Source-Sink Dynamics • -- Implications for networks of marine reserves (connectivity and resilience)

  8. Contributions to understanding and modeling of bottom-up forcing in exploited marine ecosystems • End to end models now under development for all four GLOBEC study regions can be directly used for this purpose • Georges Bank work has already been used to illustrate how this might be done

  9. Indicators of future ecosystem change • Assemble suite of ecosystem indicators from GLOBEC observation programs • Traffic light representation of ecosystem change • Application to DPSIR Framework

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