Developing World #3

1. Developing World #3 • What are a few reasons why the author thinks the 21st century is the best? • What are some of the challenges that remain despite the successes of the 21st century? • Of the challenges and successes mentioned which do you think are most integral in the overall success of this past decade?

2. Exploring and Shaping International Futures Ch. 1Where do current changes appear to be taking us? • One of the most common techniques for studying change is extrapolation. Extrapolation is trend projection. If global population is growing at 1.2 percent per year, an extrapolation of the future assumes that it will grow 1.2 percent each year in the future. Same can be applied to a declining percentage. Extrapolation is not the only technique for exploring where change is taking us, but it is a starting point.

3. What kind of future would we prefer? Let us consider three sets of values, corresponding to three complexes of issues on which this volume focuses: the development of individual potential for all human, the achievement of security and fairness in human relationships, and the protection of the biological and physical environment. The widespread and universal human development, security and fairness in society, and environmental sustainability are desirable.

4. How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Analysis of human leverage is complicated for two reasons. One is that our values do vary somewhat, and we therefore may choose to differentially focus our attention with respect to leverage. The other is that our understanding of the workings of the world tend to vary quite substantially and to be underdeveloped, so that we frequently identify different courses of action to accomplish even nearly identical goals. This requires we go beyond extrapolation to casual analysis. Example, there is an old story about a person falling from the top of the Empire State Building. As she passes the 51st floor, a friend at a window asks how it is going. The response is “so far. So good.” The reason that most of us see a little black humor in this is that we automatically supplement extrapolation reasoning with casual analyses, a consideration of cause-and-effect relations.

5. What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political social systems throughout the twenty-first century? The easy and correct answer is that no one knows. If we believed that we had no control over the future, we might accept that response and return our attention to daily life. But most of us believe that our actions shape our own future and the future of our descendants.

6. “Prediction is very difficult especially about the future.” Is this true?

7. Exploring and Shaping International Futures Ch. 2What are the 5 types of growth and decline on page 11? a. Linear change is equal incremental change yearly (or a fixed amount) b. S-curve change shows slow, steady climb followed by a dramatic spike and ultimately leveling c. Threshold Change is simply explained as “quick jumps” in a trend d.Bell curve change increases gradually and there is a fall e. Exponential change focuses on fluctuations in terms of fixed percentages

8. Name and Identify two environmental changes mentioned in chapter 2 that are causes for concern. • Greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere and the destruction of forests • Greenhouse Issue: Carbon dioxide allows sunlight to pass through easily but also reflect heat radiation to earth and raises the air temperature. HOWEVER it is still unclear whether carbon dioxide follows or causes rise in temperatures as stated in the 1988 World Resources Center. • Deforestation Issue: Despite regulation, by 1996, 53% of all original rain forests were destroyed. Scientists worry about how the earth will tolerate changes when its own natural resources are missing and not replenished. Scientists even believe that the lack of trees may contribute or even further aggravate the green house issue.

9. What are factors have contributed to major changes in life conditions? • Infant Mortality, the average human is “richer”, interhuman contact and education is increasing. • IMF rate: has dropped which can be attributed to political agendas (laws restricting abortion) and advancement in medical technologies as well as greater accessibility to it. Between 1960 and 2003 the average GDPPCP increased by about $4000. With greater accessibility to books and the internet it is easier to gain access to education as well as increased level of illiteracy throughout the world. Technology also contributed to greater communication as well. In addition to the internet, television ownership and a rise towards urbanization increased communication. By 2004, nearly half of humanity lives in an urban setting.

10. What do Reverend Malthus and Paul Ehrlich believe in relevance of population change? • Uncontrolled population naturally grows exponentially • Food supply grows linearly • Population, inevitably, outstrip food supply • Increasing death rate due to starvation cannot be prevented Do you believe or see that a trend of higher population would result in more starvation?

11. What changes have you experienced within the last 10 years? How have they helped you or limited you? • Cultural/social (i.e., able to speak new language, study abroad) • Health (i.e., university insurance doesn’t cover much and your wisdom teeth are coming-in) • Economical (i.e., unemployed with a new car…) • Environmental (i.e., natural disaster near your home)