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Assimilate NOAA P3 T ail D oppler R adar Data for Hurricane Initialization at NCEP

Assimilate NOAA P3 T ail D oppler R adar Data for Hurricane Initialization at NCEP. Mingjing Tong 1 Collaborators: David Perish 2 , Daryl Kleist 3 , Russ Treadon 2 , John Derber 2 Xuyang Ge 1 , Fuqing Zhang 4 John Gamache 5 NCEP/EMC HWRF team

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Assimilate NOAA P3 T ail D oppler R adar Data for Hurricane Initialization at NCEP

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  1. Assimilate NOAA P3 Tail Doppler Radar Data for Hurricane Initialization at NCEP MingjingTong1 Collaborators: David Perish2, Daryl Kleist3, Russ Treadon2, John Derber2 XuyangGe1, FuqingZhang4 John Gamache5 NCEP/EMC HWRF team 1UCAR (NCEP/EMC), 2NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, 3IMSG (NCEP/EMC), 4PSU, 5NOAA/AOML/HRD

  2. 200 km P-3 regular Jorgensen et al., 1983, J. Climate Appl. Meteor, 22, 744-757 400 km P-3 weak storm P-3 weak storm

  3. Global hybrid EnKF-3DVAR ensemble forecast member 1 Global hybrid EnKF-3DVAR ensemble forecast member 2 Data assimilation Global hybrid EnKF-3DVAR ensemble forecast member N GSI Data thinning, quality control Iterative minimization HWRF vortex initialization global forecast vortex 126 hr forecast analysis GDAS forecast global forecast environment first guess HWRF modified vortex Relocation, size correction, intensity correction, adjust mass fields HWRF 6 hr forecast observation HWRF environment HWRF Initialization

  4. TC initialization with TDR data assimilation • HWRF model * Non-hydrostatic coupled atmosphere-ocean model, WRF-NMM dynamic core, rotated E-grid, two way interactive nesting * Resolution: Parent (Outer) domain 0.18˚ (27 km), inner domain 0.06˚ (9 km), 42 vertical levels • Data assimilated * Quality controlled tail Doppler radar radial velocity data within [-3 hr, 3 hr] are assimilated * Rawinsonde, pibal, class sounding, profiler, dropsonde, AIRCFT, AIRCAR, GPSIPW, surface data (marine/land/splash-level/mesonet), satellite wind * satellite radiance data: HIRS, AMSU-A, AMSU-B, MHS, sounding • GSI *Analysis variables: streamfunction, unbalanced part of velocity potential, unbalanced part of temperature, unbalanced part of surface pressure, normalized relative humidity, satellite bias correction coefficients * flow-dependent anisotropic background error covariance [Riishøjgaard (1998), Purser 2003b, 2005]. * Background error statistics are estimated in grid space with the NMC method (3DVAR). * Hybrid DA option Four HWRF domains (Fig 4.1 of HWRF USERS’ GUIDE) http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/docs/users_guide/HWRF_V3.3a_UG.pdf

  5. outer domain ghost domain ghost domain Satellite radiance obs conventional obs ps,t, q, uv, TDRvr 2011.08.24 00 UTC

  6. 2011 TDR DA Real Time Parallel

  7. Real time 3DVAR TDR DA experiments

  8. Real time 3DVAR TDR DA experiments

  9. Hybrid Ensemble-3DVAR System for HWRF • Current hybrid ensemble-3DAV system is one way coupled system • Ensemble perturbations come from global EnKF-3DVAR system ensemble forecast interpolated to HWRF analysis domains • Ensemble covariance is incorporated as part of the background error covariance though extended control variable method (Lorenc 2003; Buehner 2005; Wang et al. 2007) • May not help much with vortex initialization, hopefully can improve storm environment

  10. Pseudo-ensemble hybrid for HWRF • Poterjoy and Zhang (2011):Wavenumber 0 storm structures have the largest influence on forecast uncertainty for TCs with category 1 or higher intensity. • Back ground error covariance is dominated by wavenumber 0 component. • Flow-dependent forecast covariance can be approximated from a sample of near-axisymmetric TC vortices • TC vortices are created by running idealized 3 km resolution HWRF simulations and grouped by intensity (XuyangGe) • TC library vortices are mapped to the background vortex region (300 km from background TC center) in ghost domain and perturbations are calculated • Replace global ensemble perturbations with TC vortex library perturbations within 150 km from background TC center • TC library perturbations are gradually blended with global ensemble perturbations from 150 km to 300 km from background TC center

  11. Analysis increment from single obs testu obs at 0.5 degree north of storm center at 850 level PEDA HYBB PEDA – hybrid DA with pseudo-ensemble HYBB – hybrid DA with pure global ensemble Weight given to ensemble B is 0.8

  12. Analysis increment from single obs testu obs at 0.5 degree north of storm center at 850 level PEDA HYBB PEDA – hybrid DA with pseudo-ensemble HYBB – hybrid DA with pure global ensemble

  13. analysis PEDA HYBB PEDA HYBB

  14. 12 hour forecast HYBB PEDA PEDA HYBB

  15. First TDR DA cycle of Hurricane Earl

  16. Hybrid TDR test with Hurricane EARL

  17. Hybrid TDR test with Hurricane EARL

  18. Hybrid TDR test with Hurricane EARL

  19. Issues and Discussion • Over/under estimate storm intensity • * poor background • * DA configuration • Short term forecast spin up/down • * Mass-wind balance • * storm structure • May need more comprehensive verifications

  20. Plans • Model: move on to higher resolution (27km-9km-3km) HWRF. • Assimilation method • * Intensive hybrid (1 way coupled) test will be done using ensemble data from the new global EnKF-3DVAR hybrid parallel (prd12q3k). • * Further investigate the performance of PEDA. Improve TC library, e.g. including the size variability. • * Move on to 2 way coupled hybrid system by collaborating with Jeff Whitaker and AOML/HRD • * Analyze cloud variables • DATA • * Investigate the impact of assimilating ground based radar data. • * The impact of satellite radiance data in regional model • * Cloudy radiance data

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