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Study ‘Impact on employment in the EU-25 of CO2 emission reduction strategies by 2030’

Study ‘Impact on employment in the EU-25 of CO2 emission reduction strategies by 2030’ Construction-housing sector Conference Jobs in a low carbon Europe 20&21 February 2007, Brussels,. Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (1).

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Study ‘Impact on employment in the EU-25 of CO2 emission reduction strategies by 2030’

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  1. Study ‘Impact on employment in the EU-25 of CO2 emission reduction strategies by 2030’ Construction-housing sector Conference Jobs in a low carbon Europe 20&21 February 2007, Brussels,

  2. Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (1) Reference scenario : BAU (Business as Usual) Application of the 2 existing European Directives : • EPBD Directive (2002/91/EC) : field of application is limited to new & existing buildings of more than 1000 m2 (22% of the heat consumption of the European building stock). • Directive on the final uses of energy and energy services (Dec 2005). It requires that Member States realise energy savings of 1% per year over a period 2008-2017. • This BAU scenario leads to a reduction of 34 millions tons CO2 / year by 2012, or a reduction of 8% compared with 1990

  3. Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (2) II) EURIMA Alternative Scenario • Supposes a revision of the EPBD Directive extending its field of application to all dwellings in the EU. • This scenario leads to a reduction of 70 million tons of CO2 a year in the residential sector, or -16%.

  4. Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (3) III. “Factor 4” alternative scenario : • reduction of 75% in CO2 emissions in the residential sector in the long term (2030 or 2050). • Decreasing the thermal consumption by 3/4 going from 200 Kwh/m2 on the average 2005 to 50 Kwh/m2. • Increasing the investments in thermal renovation works to go from 34 euros/m2 to 204 euros/m2 (in constant 2006 euros), with technology existing in 2006.

  5. Scenarios of CO2 emission reduction in the EU residential sector at the horizons 2012 and 2030 (4) • The P&M at the national & European levels corresponding to the alternative scenarios: • Regulatory P&Ms • P&Ms in the form of incentives • P&Ms to promote R&D activities in the building industry and the building supply & materials industries • P&Ms for the development of training streams for new skills & new occupations of the players in the “sustainable construction” branch.

  6. The effect on employment of the various scenarios (1) I. BAU Scenario : • EU15 : Invest a further 10 billion euros per year in the residential sector (or 1,1 % of the turn-over of the sector). • From 160 to 500 kiloeuros/year/FTE job • Creation of 20 000 to 62 500 additional FTE jobs. • In the 10 new member States : Invest an amount of 1,6 billion/year in the energy efficiency of the residential sector • Assuming 35 000 euros/year/FTE job • Creation of an average of 45 000 new FTE jobs per year

  7. The effect on employment of the various scenarios (2) II. EURIMA Alternative Scenario • EU 15 : The investments required amount to 25 billions euros per year (or 2,8% of the 2004 turnover of the sector), 2,5 times greater than in the BAU scenario. • Assumption : a range of 160 to 500 kiloeuros/year/FTE job • Creation of 50 000 to 156 000 additional FTE jobs. • 10 new member States : Investments required amount to 4,7 billion euros per year (10,5% of the turnover) • Assumption : 35 kiloeuros/year/FTE job • Creation of 135 000 FTE new jobs

  8. The effect on employment of the various scenarios (3) III. “FACTOR 4” alternative Scenario • For a sample of 16 EU countries (13 billions m2, or 3/4 of building stock EU25) : The investments required amount to 3 145 billions euros overall; • 137 billion euros/year if this program is spread between 2006 & 2030 (14 times greater than BAU Scenario), • 73 billion euros/year if this program between 2006 & 2050. • Hypothesis : 53 kiloeuros/year/FTE job • Accelerated implementation 2006-2030 : Creation of 2,6 millions new FTE jobs per year. • Implementation over the period 2006-2050 : Creation of 1,4 millions new FTE jobs per year

  9. The quality of new jobs • Intensity of the work factor : job intensity of investment in energy efficiency in the residential sector is higher than in the other sectors and jobs can not be delocalised. • The direct jobs created : equipments & materials manufacturing, their installation & maintenance by large & small companies in the construction sector, activities of management, administration & control of energy-efficiency investment programmes, service activities to optimise energy savings : advice, energy audit, marketing, R&D. • A maximum of jobs (50% to 90%) created in the first two categories, i.e manual activities. • The indirect jobs created :17 jobs for 100 new direct jobs

  10. The other social issues of the improvement of energy efficiency in the building stock • The contribution of energy savings to the reduction of energy poverty & social (re)insertion • Training programmes in sufficient quantity & quality must involve all the players in the enlarged sustainable-building branch • Building professionals and those in the thermal material & equipment industries are generally averse to change, innovation & continuing education • Training provisions in the construction sector in EU are generally narrow in scope & poorly financed

  11. The issues of the workers’ training • The public sector must play a key leadership role in implementing demonstration training programmes. • The demands on all initial & ongoing training measures are twofold : • To initiate & train people for occupations in environmental quality in 3 indispensable areas : prior diagnostic techniques, knowledge of all renewable energies & their specific conditions of use and installation; • Reorient or revise the contents in vocational training to emphasise certain contents, for which the demand will be on the increase : insulation & ventilation, heating grids, interior equipment.

  12. P&M required in the training area • Revise the content of initial professional training courses in the construction sector • A new priority for continuing education programmes • Expand access to continuing education • Training for project management occupations • The issues around the emerging new profession of energy auditor • The issues around the creation of a basic and continuing training scheme for the new emerging job of project management assistant.

  13. Thank you for your attention!www.syndex.fr

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