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Network design What (not) to expect from the future Internet

Network design What (not) to expect from the future Internet. Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko. Very crude outline :. DON’T EXPECT ANYTHING DRAMATICALLY NEW. Outline:. The hard-to-predict non-techie user is king

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Network design What (not) to expect from the future Internet

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  1. Network designWhat (not) to expect from the future Internet Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko

  2. Very crude outline: DON’T EXPECT ANYTHING DRAMATICALLY NEW

  3. Outline: • The hard-to-predict non-techie user is king • Inertia more important than technology and economics • Precise prediction impossible • Flexibility, the main source of Internet’s success, key (for even if you find the optimal solution, you won’t convince decision makers in time)

  4. 4 dimensions of communications technology: • Volume: How much data can it transmit? • Transaction latency: How long does it take to do something? • Reach: Where can the service be provided? • Price: How much does it cost?

  5. Network technologies and architectures: • Irrelevant to users • Cannot compensate completely for weaknesses of applications

  6. Technology: • Many choices • Drive for uniformity (converged network) • Drive for diversity (walled gardens, security, redundancy, customer-owned networks, outsourcing, ...)  Likely outcome a multimodal telecom scene, unified by IP layer (in analogy with transportation sector, unified by container)

  7. Inertia: • Standards that are still diffusing rapidly (e.g., IP) hard to undermine • Comparison to standard gauge on railroads Conclusion: You can tweak it, but it will be called IP, and will be very much like IP, however poor IP is

  8. Long-haul is not where the action is: • 360networks transatlantic cable (mid-2007)

  9. Central technology trends: • Rapid growth in processing power • Rapid growth in storage • Rapid growth in transmission • Slow growth in resolution of display devices • Imbalance, with far more storage than transmission

  10. MINTS (Minnesota Internet Traffic Studies): http://www.dtc.umn.edu/mints • monitor of Internet traffic growth • worldwide growth rate decelerating to about 50% per year (contrary to claims of exafloods clogging the networks)

  11. Future: uncertain • huge potential sources of traffic (far more storage, processing power, and broadcast video than Internet transmission capacity) • user, service provider, and policy level inertia • need to monitor networks to plan • at current growth rates, no case for big architectural changes

  12. Further data, discussions, and speculations in papers and presentation decks at: http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko

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