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Background

Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years for Australians in their 70’s by behavioural risk factors Annette Dobson, Deirdre McLaughlin, Nancy Pachana, Julie Byles, Janni Leung, Kieran McCaul, Leon Flicker, Osvaldo Almeida, Derrick Lopez, Graeme Hankey. NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well,

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Background

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  1. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years for Australians in their 70’s by behavioural risk factors Annette Dobson,Deirdre McLaughlin, Nancy Pachana, Julie Byles, Janni Leung, Kieran McCaul, Leon Flicker, Osvaldo Almeida, Derrick Lopez, Graeme Hankey. NHMRC/ARC Ageing Well, Ageing Productively Grant

  2. Background Demographic changes, increasing age and longer life expectancy mean that more people will live into their 70s and 80s.

  3. Aims of this study Provide valid estimates of the combined effects of major behavioural factors on risk of death within 10 years for men and women already in their 70s Present the results using simple charts to communicate the importance of combinations of risk factors

  4. Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health 1921-1926 cohort Health, well-being and health service use Surveyed every 3 years: 1996 – to at least 2015 National – over 40,000 participants Funded by Australian Department of Health & Ageing

  5. Health in Men Study Aged 65-83 Screened in 1996-1999 for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Followed up in 2001-2004 for HIMS study Perth area only Physical examination, biomarkers, questionnaire Funded by NHMRC project grants

  6. Methods N: 7438 women, 6053 men Age: 71 to 79 years Outcome: deaths from all causes Follow-up: 10 year

  7. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for each sex separately; logistic regression for death within 10 years

  8. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models.

  9. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models.

  10. Absolute risk charts for death within 10 years; numbers in the cells are predicted risk (%) calculated from the logistic regression models.

  11. Conclusions Overall the risks of death were high, almost all exceeding 10% for women and 20% for men Risks were substantially higher for men than women For both sexes risk was highest those who: were in the oldest age group smoked did not drink alcohol weekly or more reported little physical activity

  12. Please visit our website for more details on our project http://www.menwomenandageing.org

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