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Wednesday November 18, 2015 HFIP Annual Meeting

Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT). Chair and co-chair: H.-S. Kim, G. Halliwell Team : P. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. Cione, M. Cronin, J. Dong, I. Ginis, B. Jaimes, S. Jayne, B. Liu, L. Miller, E. Sanabia, N. Shay, V. Tallapragada, B. Thomas, E. Uhlhorn, and L. Zhu. Institutions :

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Wednesday November 18, 2015 HFIP Annual Meeting

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  1. Ocean Model Impact Tiger Team (OMITT) Chair and co-chair: H.-S. Kim, G. Halliwell Team: P. Black, N. Bond, S. Chen, J. Cione, M. Cronin, J. Dong, I. Ginis, B. Jaimes, S. Jayne, B. Liu, L. Miller, E. Sanabia, N. Shay, V. Tallapragada, B. Thomas, E. Uhlhorn, and L. Zhu Institutions: EMC, NESDIS, DTC, HRD/AOML, PhoD/AOML, PMEL, USNA, Navy, URI, UMiami, JISAO/Uwashington, and WHOI Wednesday November 18, 2015 HFIP Annual Meeting

  2. Overview • Group and Tasks – Update • Storms Proposed to Study - Update • Activity Summary • Ocean Impact Study – Preliminary Results • Summary • Future Plans

  3. 1. Groups and Tasks: Update Modeling Evaluation Modeling Evaluation real cases on demand or ideal cases for sensitivity study DWH Modeling Modeling Observations Data Ware House (DWH) No longer exists due to lack of resources perform model-obs. and model-model comparisons collect, archive at DTC, and distribute

  4. 2. Stormsof interest (priority in yellow)

  5. 3. Activity Summary • Coupled HWRF-HYCOM package for Ideal Case Study w/ 1D & 3D • HYCOM merged to HWRF-Ocean-Wave system • Diagnostic script package (in Python) • Ocean Impact Investigations for Edouard, Blanca, Julio, Iselle, and Isaac. • NOAA Next Gen Hurricane Observing Capability AoA Workshop • Recommend concurrent atmospheric and oceanic profiling • Data assimilation in a coupled sense • Request submitted to TPOS2020, of a air-sea observation mooring at MDR in EPac • Attending national conferences and meetings • AMS annual • 69TH IHC • WAF/NWS conference • OMITT session in Ocean Science Meeting 2016

  6. Request submitted to TPOS2020, of a air-sea observation mooring at MDR in EPac Fwd: Questionnaire about Tropical Pacific Observing System Planetary Boundary Layer Observations Knapp et al. (2008) Hi Hyun Sook, Through this email, I want to connect you with the TPOS Eastern Pacific Boundary Task Team Co-Chairs, Ken Takahashi and Yolande Serra. We are in Australia right now at the TPOS2020 Steering Committee meeting. There has been some discussion about your request to have observations for helping hurricane/typhoon forecasting. Yolande & Ken --  Hyun Sook's request to the PBL questionnaire is attached here. This is included in our supplemental information folder. As I said last night, Hyun Sook leads the Hurricane Ocean Model Impact tiger team which includes Nick Shay, and a few other observationalists. Proposed location: (104.5W,~14N)

  7. 4. Ocean Impact Investigations – Preliminary Results Edouard (2014): Initial Conditions Upper structure • FB is warmer and has deeper MLD than observations, and other analysis products • HYCOM (RTOFS) has relatively warmer and better MLD than NCODA • None of analysis misses the thermocline, except HYCOM (weak) Thermocline

  8. 4. Ocean Impact Study – Preliminary Results Edouard (2014): OM Initial Conditions and Forecasts MPI-POM forced with HWIND (one-way) FB NCODA HYCOM 9/12 FB NCODA HYCOM 9/16 • SST Cooling is stronger for NCODA and HYCOM. • NCODA cooling takes place sooner than the other two. • Degree of scale variability is the highest for HYCOM, followed by NCODA and FB.

  9. 4. Ocean Impact Investigations – Preliminary Results Edouard (2014) Ta - Ts 18Z 2014/9/12 GDAS RTOFS CI=0.5 CI=0.5 • GDAS SST sets domain-wide stable thermal condition in the near surface layer • Neutral or unstable conditions over the western GOM, the entire Caribbean Sea, and the North Atlantic tropics, if RTOFS SST is used.

  10. 4. Ocean Impact Investigations – Preliminary Results Edouard (2014) Sensitivity study for Initial SST and Warm Pool’s location, size, and strength For example, at 96 h, wrt BT Pmin = 4 hPa (2014/2012) vs. 28 hPa Vmin = -15 kt (2014/2012) vs. -30 kt • Sources: • NCODA SST from 2010-2014 • GDEM September climatology CI=0.5 Pmin Vmax 2013 2013 • Better Intensity Forecast • Larger and warm beneath a storm • Stronger temperature gradient along the track 2011 2014 2014 2012 2012

  11. 4. Real Case Study – Preliminary Eastern North Pacific 2015 Importance of Intra-Seasonal Conditions El Nino Early season – NiNo index 1-2 Mid and Late season – NiNO index 3-4 Also, body of warm water (“blob”?) residing at 20N, expanding southwestward over time  set up unseasonally warm SST in the tropics.

  12. 4. Real Case Study – 3D Ocean Model & Impact Blanca (02E) – Track Forecast Verification Cross Along • Bias magnitude similar • Weak eastward bias • Faster translation speed • Similar AME, O(<30 nm) HYCOM coupling – slightly better (h< 60h) and worse (h>60h) than H215.

  13. 4. Real Case Study – 3D Ocean Model & Impact Blanca (02E) – Intensity Forecast Verification • All shows negative Vmax bias, but HYCOM coupling shows better forecast skill by O(<15 kt). • Vmax forecast AME for HYCOM coupling is better by O(<6 kt). • Smaller Pmin error for HYCOM at hours < 48, but relatively large at 72 h. • Smaller Pmin bias for HYCOM coupling over all, whereas positive bias for POM coupling. Vmax (kt) Pmin (hPa) Scatter plots for Vmax, Pmin, and UT

  14. 4. Real Case Study - 3D Ocean Model and Impact Blanca (2015): Upper Oceanic Conditions & Intensity More SST cooling but better intensity • POM shows slower moving storm and less cooling at its footprint. • However, the cooling rate afterwards is higher for POM than HYCOM. • SST cooling @24 hr/(cycle): • 9.1/(3.6-17.6)oC for POM • 11.0/(3.6-13.1)oC for HYCOM

  15. 4. Real Case Study - 3D Ocean Model and Impact Blanca (2015): Upper Oceanic Conditions & Intensity • Reason for better intensity forecasts for HYCOM coupling is deeper upper layer, eps., in the near field. • Shallower and colder upper layer conditions for POM is consistent with IC. • Hence, climatology-based IC failed to represent the present seasonal conditions. POM HYCOM Depth of 26oC (dash horizontal lines) is ~40m difference  O(16%) OHC difference

  16. 4. Ideal Case Study - SST and Impact TC’s Extratropical Transition: Sensitivity to SST Typhoon Tokage, using WRF (Bond et al. 2010) Hurricane Edouard, using HWRF-HYCOM (Dong et al. 2015) 850 hPa at 96h Control Cold Perturbation (1-1.5oC) between 30-40 N extending east of Japan 500 hPa at 96h GFS SST (black) SST=27 (red) • Warm SST perturbation – slightly weaker cyclone ~2 d after transition. • Cold SST perturbation – stronger cyclone by 10 hPa Pmin. Mid-latitude Jet Stream gets stronger with warmer SST than GFS

  17. 5. Summary • Importance of Initial Conditions (IC): • Intra-seasonal variability as well as meso-scale variability should be realized. • Intensity forecasts vs. SST cooling – more complicated: • Positive impact: Depends on thickness of the oceanic upper layer, hence MLD or thermocline should be accurately represented. • Found different translation speeds between POM and HYCOM. • Found that instantaneous cooling is higher and slower post-storm cooling rate for HYCOM. Opposite for POM. • Intensity forecasts vs. SST field • Location, strength and size of warm pool play important role. • Location, strength of the Gulf Stream (weaker for GDAS). • Air-sea temperature difference sets up different thermal structure at IC. • Intensity forecasts vs. SST cooling – more complicated:

  18. 6. Future Plans • Analyses for the real case runs of Edouard (2014) and Blanca (2015) toward publications • Real and Ideal Case Runs and Analyses for Joaquin (2015) • Assist HWRF T&E analyses – Ocean Model Impact • Run Ideal Cases for different Seasonal Conditions • Investigate Runs with additional mixing (Langumir mixing) in Ocean Model • Analyses of 3-way coupling. • EPac Hurricanes with El Nino and La Nina conditions

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