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Status of the Regional OSSE for Space-Based LIDAR Winds – Feb01

Status of the Regional OSSE for Space-Based LIDAR Winds – Feb01. John McGinley Adrian Marroquin John Smart Linda Wharton NOAA/Forecast Systems Lab. Goal of OSSE. Assess impact of space-borne LIDAR winds on regional weather forecasts Compare to the Global LIDAR OSSE. Collaborators.

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Status of the Regional OSSE for Space-Based LIDAR Winds – Feb01

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  1. Status of the Regional OSSE for Space-Based LIDAR Winds – Feb01 John McGinley Adrian Marroquin John Smart Linda Wharton NOAA/Forecast Systems Lab

  2. Goal of OSSE • Assess impact of space-borne LIDAR winds on regional weather forecasts • Compare to the Global LIDAR OSSE

  3. Collaborators • NOAA/ETL • LIDAR Simulation/ Data • NOAA/NWS/NCEP • Background grids • Advice

  4. Sub-Tasks • Nature run with independent model – MM5 – for 9-day period Feb 5-13, 1993 • Archival and storage of grids • Data extraction • Creation of “operational” data base (progress to here) • Ingest of data by RUC assimilation system • Continuous assimilation and forecasts for test period • Validation of LIDAR, no-LIDAR runs with control run • Write Report

  5. Obsv Metadata Satellite Track Data ACARS Track Data Flow Diagram Standard Obs Extractor LIDAR OBS Simulator ACARS Simulator MM5 Nature Run ECMWF Bkgrnd Control Archive Std Data Files LIDAR Data Files ACARS Data Files RUC Validation Scheme Results RUC Forecast Fields NCEP w/ Ideal LIDAR NCEP Bkgnd wo/ LIDAR NCEP Bkgnd w/ LIDAR

  6. Nature Run • Case 5-15 Feb 1993 • MM5 Model version 3.0 • Non-Hydrostatic, complete cloud microphysics, radiation, surface processes • 740 x 520 x 31 – 10km grid – 13 variables • Output every 15 minutes – 874MB: 115 GB/day (flat files) • Computer: JET - HPTi MPP (256 processor – 42 are used) • Integration time: ~ 0.8 forecast time • 5-9 Feb 1993 – Spin-up • 10-15 Feb – Output and archive every 15-min

  7. Domain

  8. Nature run on 9 Feb – at 5km Satellite vis at 9/18Z

  9. Nature run on 9 Feb – at 1.6km Satellite vis at 9/18Z

  10. Observation Extraction • Fixed Site: RAOB, Surface, Wind Profiler, Radar VAD • utilize obs generators from 1996 OSSE for KSC and VDB • Mobile Platforms: ACARS, LIDAR • Specify aircraft tracks time and space • Specify 8-position sampling beam in time and space • Provide wind components, cloud species, droplet spectra • Modeled Error • Random instrument error • Correlated meteorological noise • Mean and Spatial Variance • Data Files • netCDF – identical to FSL database

  11. Observation Processing

  12. Simulated Random Errors INSTs DATA

  13. Data Assimilation • Use RUC 20-km model run at FSL • Ingest all simulated fixed-site observations • Ingest ACARS and LIDAR radial winds • Three data options: • Standard set + LIDAR • Standard set only • Standard + Idealized LIDAR • Three background/ boundary options: • NCEP background derived from LIDAR assimilation • NCEP background, no LIDAR • NCEP background with Idealized LIDAR • Nature Run initialization and boundary conditions

  14. Data Assimilation Table BC’s Nature Run DATA Background Only

  15. Assimilation Timeline Hourly Assimilation and 24 Hour Forecasts Spin Up Feb 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1993

  16. Validation Procedures Compare RUC Forecasts to Nature Run Compute errors in state variables Assess precipitation skill

  17. Schedule Nature Run Conventional Data Extraction /Preparation LIDAR Data Extraction/ Preparation RUC Data Assimilation and Verification Report Preparation Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 01

  18. Current Status and Accomplishments • Nature Runs and Database • Prepared ECMWF Background – Gaussian to lat/lon • Converted to MM5 from RAMS • Set up MM5 v 3.0 on Jet • Completed 48-hour run for 5-6 Feb 1993 for data extraction • Provided to FSL, ETL, and Simpson Weather Associates • Coordinated format for LIDAR beam position with ETL • Coordinated model parameters needed for simulating LIDAR obs • Modified MM5 to compute mean and variance of all LIDAR fields – tested with convective case 28 Jun 1999 • Archived representative ACARS tracks • Completed Nature Run for 5-15 Feb 1993

  19. Immediate goals (next few weeks) • Complete Standard Observation Processing • Obtain Satellite Tracks from ETL • Pass Data to ETL for LIDAR simulation • Run RUC forced by Nature Run only • Run RUC with all “no-LIDAR” Scenarios

  20. Problems • Control Runs and Database • Had to convert to MM5 from RAMS – RAMS not runnable on Jet (DEC-Alpha environment) • Had to develop code for estimating mean and variance of LIDAR-measured quantities and convince ourselves that grid point variance could be related to spatial variability • Early Jan – Found ECMWF Background had incorrect u,v components – 2 day and 11-day simulations had to be rerun

  21. Ongoing Issues and Concerns • Global Nature Run low resolution • Nature Run clouds and climatology

  22. Nature run cloud water – OK?

  23. Features seem to compare well Satellite vis at 9/18Z

  24. Summary • Nature Run completed • Conventional data files being prepared • (50% finished) • Data assimilation experiments to begin in Feb.

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