A Defense Industry Perspective on Modeling and Simulation

1. A Defense Industry Perspective on Modeling and Simulation Katherine L. Morse, Ph.D. Chief Scientist, ASDI morsek@saic.com

2. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 2 The importance of M&S to the DoD Approximately 10% of DoD expenditures are on modeling & simulation Encompassing a broad spectrum of areas We see very large expenditures on M&S systems. JSIMS is $1.533B? So, to me, with expenditures this large, there is no question about the need for M&S education & research

3. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 3 Academia�s Opportunity The DoD and industry are focused on a few very large programs to the exclusion of almost all else Very little DoD funding for basic M&S research Once we deploy these large systems, where will we go for the next generation M&S technology? Academia has funding sources unavailable to industry which can be used to develop this technology, and which can put academia in an excellent position to meet this need

4. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 4 What technology will be needed? Human behavior representation Unpredictable opponents Behavior unconstrained by anything but physics Validation in the absence of data Models for which we cannot acquire data Models for which data is too expensive to acquire Functional/logical interoperability Just because we can physically interconnect models doesn�t mean the result add value NOT more sockets

5. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 5 Human Behavior Representation & Story Telling �� skilled storytelling techniques help participants in a virtual environment sense that they are in a real environment and behave accordingly.� Develop autonomous agent technology to carry out high level behavior of characters in a networked virtual environment Develop technology to guide those behaviors within the parameters of a given story line. Area that this research falls into is Computer Generated Characters Enhance the simulation experience Help the participants learn to make the right decisions and take the right actions. Area that this research falls into is Computer Generated Characters Enhance the simulation experience Help the participants learn to make the right decisions and take the right actions.

6. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 6 Design Challenges for HBR Users must not be able to �game� the HBR HBR must learn, both individually and as aggregates HBRs must be guided by, but not constrained by, doctrine or history Behavior must be constrained only by physics This has implications for representation of other modeled objects

7. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 7 Design Challenges for Story Telling Narrative Architecture Crafting and Feedback Actions What needs to be fed to the Narrative Agents Agent Autonomy Autonomy vs. Story Control Objective Function Dramatic Intensity Event Sequencing Agent autonomy - Do you want strongly autonomous agents or agents with hooks to allow outside control when necessary? Identify necessary inputs to measure dramatic intensity Express these inputs in terms agents can understand Example: Timing, not only important if an event occurs, but also when it occurs wrt other events. Objective Function inputs The hope is to be able to create a N-Relate architecture that can be used with simulations created with the relate architecture. Thereby providing some level of storyline control to the simulation independent of the original simulation design.Agent autonomy - Do you want strongly autonomous agents or agents with hooks to allow outside control when necessary? Identify necessary inputs to measure dramatic intensity Express these inputs in terms agents can understand Example: Timing, not only important if an event occurs, but also when it occurs wrt other events. Objective Function inputs The hope is to be able to create a N-Relate architecture that can be used with simulations created with the relate architecture. Thereby providing some level of storyline control to the simulation independent of the original simulation design.

8. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 8 Logical Interoperability Interoperability architectures solve the physical interoperability problem Although there are still issues with matching data models, e.g. agile FOM Need to be able to reason about the suitability of models for integration/federation Need to be able to reason about the capabilities of the resulting model

9. Katherine L. Morse, SAIC 9 Conclusions Alternate funding sources should be sought for next generation M&S solutions Progress on next generation solutions put universities in a good position when the DoD decides it�s ready to take the next step