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Jerry Gorline , NWS/OST/MDL Meteorological Development Laboratory

Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural and Other Comparisons Jerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen. Jerry Gorline , NWS/OST/MDL Meteorological Development Laboratory NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland Jeff McQueen, NWS/NCEP

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Jerry Gorline , NWS/OST/MDL Meteorological Development Laboratory

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  1. Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural and Other ComparisonsJerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen • Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL Meteorological Development Laboratory NOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland • Jeff McQueen, NWS/NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

  2. The NAM driven Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model • OZONE, 1200 UTC cycle 48-h experimental, 8-h (daily max) CB05 chemical mechanism • AEROSOLS, 0600 UTC cycle 48-h developmental, 1-h(daily max) CB05, AERO-4 aerosol module

  3. Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, comparisons:urban vs. rurallow vs. high elevation (>250 m)coastal vs. inland (NE ozone only) EPA provided urban/rural classifications and elevation information over CONUS observing sites: ozone: 1,211 aerosols: 716 urban areas shape file from U.S. Census note: these results are preliminary

  4. 2x2 contingency definitions • FC = (a + d)/(a + b + c + d) • TS = a /(a + b + c) Thresholds Used: • POD = a/(a + c) Ozone: 76 ppb • FAR = b/(a + b) Aerosols: 35 ug/m3

  5. Number of observed values higher than 76 ppb threshold, 1200 UTC experimental8-h ozone, by region, Jun 15 – Aug 31

  6. 500 mb height weather map July 21, 2011 T.S. Bret 5880 m Strong ridge in eastern U.S. very warm/moist air

  7. Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 21, 20111200 UTC experimental FC=0.755 TS=0.186 POD=0.810 FAR=0.805 CASES: 84 predicted in dark blue observed as red dots

  8. Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 22, 20111200 UTC experimental FC=0.823 TS=0.265 POD=0.776 FAR=0.713 CASES: 98 predicted in dark blue observed as red dots

  9. Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites urban FC=0.827 TS=0.141 POD=0.966 FAR=0.858 rural FC=0.843 TS=0.191 POD=0.865 FAR=0.803

  10. Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites high elev > 250 m FC=0.780 TS=0.152 POD=0.773 FAR=0.841 low elev 0 m FC=0.833 TS=0.150 POD=0.888 FAR=0.847

  11. Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011inland (red) vs. coastal (green) sites inland FC=0.780 TS=0.152 POD=0.773 FAR=0.841 coastal FC=0.747 TS=0.351 POD=0.935 FAR=0.640 Blue: urban areas shape file from U.S. Census

  12. Threat Score vs. # observationsdaily max, 8-h ozone, CONUSsummer 2010 (red) 2011 (blue) 8-h ozone better performance on active days

  13. Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites Note: no smoke emissions urban FC=0.817 TS=0.133 POD=0.164 FAR=0.586 rural FC=0.843 TS=0.145 POD=0.168 FAR=0.485

  14. Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites high elev > 250 m FC=0.793 TS=0.080 POD=0.096 FAR=0.667 low elev 0 m FC=0.813 TS=0.129 POD=0.162 FAR=0.612

  15. Regional monthly bias of 1-h aerosolsJan 2009 to Aug 2011, 35 ug/m3 seasonal change in bias summer under-prediction Seasonal change in bias summer under-prediction

  16. Daily max 8-h ozone vs. elevationJuly 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.predictions (red) vs. observations (green) low elev 0 m FC=0.833 TS=0.150 POD=0.888 FAR=0.847 ozone: over-prediction during the summer high elev > 250 m FC=0.822 TS=0.165 POD=0.917 FAR=0.832

  17. Daily max 1-h aerosols vs. elevationJuly 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.predictions (red) vs. observations (green) low elev 0 m FC=0.813 TS=0.129 POD=0.162 FAR=0.612 aerosols: under-prediction during the summer high elev > 250 m FC=0.793 TS=0.080 POD=0.096 FAR=0.667

  18. Summary Ozone: higher TS on coast compared to inland (NE), low elevation: over-prediction in the summer. Aerosols: higher TS at low elevation, lower POD than w/ ozone, under-prediction in the summer.

  19. Suggestions for future work: • remove rural sites that are too close to urban areas, may have affected results. • compare by region, especially for the Pacific Coast (PC) region. • for aerosols, compare winter vs. summer, urban/rural, low/high elev. • compare different model configurations, NMM-B, 4 km. • expand inland vs. coast comparison to include entire U.S. east coast.

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