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Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring

Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring. Presented by Bob Kuligowski. Requirement, Science, and Benefit. Requirement/Objective Mission Goal: Weather & Water Increase lead time and accuracy for weather and water warnings and forecasts

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Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring

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  1. Precipitation and Flash Flood Monitoring Presented by Bob Kuligowski

  2. Requirement, Science, and Benefit Requirement/Objective • Mission Goal: Weather & Water • Increase lead time and accuracy for weather and water warnings and forecasts • Increase development, application, and transition of advanced science and technology to operations and services • Reduce uncertainty associated with weather and water decision tools and assessments Science • What are the optimal methods and algorithms by which multi-spectral and multi-platform (GEO and LEO) satellite observations, in-situ data, and numerical models can be integrated to provide usefully accurate, near-real-time quantitative precipitation information? Benefit • Improve weather forecasting • Reduce loss of life and property from disasters

  3. Challenges and Path Forward • Science challenges • Midlatitude “warm” rain and snow are still very difficult to detect using either microwave or IR • Orographic effects highly difficult to depict properly • Next steps • Integrated Observations, Products, and Synthesis: Leverage anticipated improvements in midlatitude precipitation retrieval from GPM into SCaMPR • Core satellite launch in 2013; constellation will include NPOESS (2011), Megha-Tropiques (2010), and other PMW instruments • Research to Operations: Implement SCaMPR in GOES-R Ground System • Final code to be turned in to System Prime contractor in September 2010 • Transition Path • Experimental version of SCaMPR will be evaluated by users and disseminated to AWIPS in pre-GOES-R era if approved by SPSRB

  4. Basics of Satellite Rainfall Monitoring Two ways to retrieve rainfall rate: • Infrared (IR): relate cloud-top temperature to cloud height, depth, and rain rate • Strength: can monitor from geostationary orbit • Weakness: weak physical connection between cloud-top properties and rain rate • Microwave (MW): relate horizontal temperature differences to cloud water / ice content and rain rate • Strength: relatively strong connection between cloud contents and rain rate • Weakness: can monitor only from low-Earth orbit—a few snapshots per day

  5. NESDIS’ Operational Hydro-Estimator (H-E) • Developed at STAR as an automation of manual techniques also previously developed at STAR • Operational since 2002; disseminated to NWS field offices via AWIPS • Uses IR window to derive rain rates; uses numerical weather model output to adjust for sub-cloud-top influences (e.g., evaporation, terrain effects) • Run globally in real time on an experimental basis • Run operationally in Mexico, Costa Rica, Brazil, South Africa • Providing flash flood forecast support in Central America, Mekong Delta, Southern Africa via collaboration with NWS and HRC Hourly H-E Estimates for 4 June 2009 Hydro-Estimator 1-hour Accumulated Rainfall (mm)

  6. NESDIS’ Experimental Rainfall Algorithm • Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval (SCaMPR) • Developed at STAR • Uses more-accurate MW rain rates to automatically calibrate more-frequently-available IR inputs from GOES in real time • Run in real time over the CONUS since late 2004 • Improvements currently being evaluated, including additional GOES data and expanded coverage area • Modified version of SCaMPR developed for GOES-R ABI using SEVIRI as proxy

  7. Challenges and Path Forward • Science challenges • Midlatitude “warm” rain and snow are still very difficult to detect using either microwave or IR • Orographic effects highly difficult to depict properly • Next steps • Integrated Observations, Products, and Synthesis: Leverage anticipated improvements in midlatitude precipitation retrieval from GPM into SCaMPR • Core satellite launch in 2013; constellation will include NPOESS (2011), Megha-Tropiques (2010), and other PMW instruments • Research to Operations: Implement SCaMPR in GOES-R Ground System • Final code to be turned in to System Prime contractor in September 2010 • Transition Path • Experimental version of SCaMPR will be evaluated by users and disseminated to AWIPS in pre-GOES-R era if approved by SPSRB

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