FLASH FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS

1. FLASH FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS Christopher Hill VisitingScientist, UCAR/COMET

2. FLASH FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS REFERENCE GUIDE Draft - Version 2.0 (Christopher Hill & FirozVerjee) Flash Floods in the USA (Photo: US Geological Survey)

3. CHAPTERS • Introduction • Flash FloodScience • Hydro-meteorologicalMonitoring Networks • TechnologyInfrastructure • Flash FloodForecasting Sub-systems • WarningDissemination and Notification • CommunitybasedDisaster Management • Examples of end-to-end FFEWS • Concept of Operations (CONOPS) Development

4. Chapter 1 - Introduction • Purpose of the Guide – promotethedevelopment of FFEWS baseduponprovenmethods. • WhatisanEarlyWarningSystem (EWS)? In 2006, the United Nations released its Global Survey of Early Warning Systemswhich identified four elements in natural hazard early warning systems: • Risk Knowledge – systematic assessment of hazards and vulnerabilities, and mapping of their patterns and trends. • Monitoring & Warning Service – accurate and timely forecasting of hazards using reliable, scientific methods and technologies. • Dissemination & Communication – clear and timely distribution of warnings to all those at risk. • Response Capability – national and local capacities and knowledge to act correctly when warnings are communicated.

5. A System of Systems Awareness Sub-Systems Forecasting Sub-Systems Warning Sub-Systems Action Sub-Systems (see Chapter 6) (see Chapter 7) Secure Communications Evacuation Risk Assessments Rainfall Prediction Science/Research (see Chapter 2) Flash Flood Prediction (see Chapter 5) Insurance Broadcast Media Emergency Reinforcement Monitoring Network (see Chapter 3) Person-to-person Debris Flow Prediction Resettlement etc IT Infrastructure (see Chapter 4) etc

6. Chapter 2 – Flash FloodScience Flash FloodProcesses • HydrologicInfluences • SoilMoisture: mostimportant • SoilTexture: alsoaffectsrate of infiltration • SoilProfile: e.g.soiloverbedrock • BasinInfluences • Shape and Size • Slope • Roughness • StreamDensity

7. Chapter 3 – HydroMet Networks • HydrometeorologicalSensors • Rain Gauges • Streamflow Gauges • Radar Networks • SatelliteImagery • CommunicationsRequirements • BackupCommunications • International Observation Data and InformationCollection - GTS

8. Chapter 4 – TechnologyInfrastructure • OperatingSystems and Hardware Needs • ApplicationsPrograms • InformationTechnology (IT) Networks • MaintenanceProgramRequirements • Redundancy and BackupRequirements

9. Chapter 5 – Flash FloodForecasting Sub-systems • Local FloodWarning Sub-systems • Manual • Automated: ALERT and IFLOWS • Alarm • Flash FloodGuidance (FFG) Sub-systems • Rainfall-Runoff Curves and ThreshR • Flash FloodMonitoringProgram (FFMP) • Flash FloodThreatDeterminaton • Flash FloodPotentialIndex (FFPI) • Global Flash FloodGuidanceSystem (GFFG) • DevelopedbyHydrologicResearch Center (HRC) • Successfullydemonstratedwiththe CAFFG system • BriefExamples of ExistingSystems

10. Chapter 6 – WarningDissemination and Notification • Flash FloodProducts– content and formatfor: • Flash FloodWarnings • Flash FloodWatches • Flash FloodStatements • Dissemination • Physicallygettingthemessagetocustomers • Notification • Theunderstanding of themessagebytheaudience • Research and Development

11. Chapter 7 – Community-BasedDisaster Management • A simple communicationmodel • Awareness Understanding  Acceptance  BehaviorChange • Developingpartnerships • Communitypreparednessprograms • Identifyingpartners and customers • Community-baseddisasterresilienceprograms • Connectingwiththepublic • Source Message  Channel  Audience • Designing and implementingoutreachprograms • Strategiesfordifferentaudiences

12. Chapter 8 – Examples of End-to-End FFEWS • USA • national hydro-meteorological guidance, local hydro-meteorological expertise and constituent-operated gauge networks • Central American Flash FloodGuidanceSystem (CAFFG) • based primarily on satellite data • ItalianPiedmontRegionMulti-disiplinarySystem • ALERT and Real-time Flood Forecasting System • Columbia: Aburrá Valley Natural Hazard Early Warning System • currently in the planning stages.

13. USA Flash Flood EWS

14. Central America Flash Flood Guidance System (CAFFG)

15. Italy: Piedmont region hydro-meteorological ALERT and Real-time Flood Forecasting System

16. Aburrá Valley Natural Hazard Early Warning System (Colombia): An example of designing an EWS from the ground up

17. Chapter 9 –Developing a Concept of Operations (ConOps) Document • This chapter explains the purpose of a ConOps within the context of the “system engineering life cycle process”. • It then lists the main elements for any flash flood EWS ConOps. • Some general guidance to avoid the common mistakes in ConOps development is provided. • It concludes with a checklist that links each of the earlier chapters to the process of developing a flash flood EWS ConOps.

18. Elements of a Flash Flood EWS Concept of Operations

19. ThankYou! Questions?

20. Christopher HillVisitingScientist, UCAR/COMET • weatherquilt@aol.com • chrishillwx@aim.com • chrishillwx@yahoo.com • christopher.dean.hill@comcast.net • chris.hill1949@comcast.net