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Climate Change and Human Health A wide-scope overview

Climate Change and Human Health A wide-scope overview. A.J. McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, Australia. heatwaves, extreme weather events. Direct impacts of heat: physiological, behavioural;

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Climate Change and Human Health A wide-scope overview

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  1. Climate Change and Human Health A wide-scope overview A.J. McMichael National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University Canberra, Australia

  2. heatwaves, extreme weather events Direct impacts of heat: physiological, behavioural; risks of injury & death shortages, prices: competition Displacement,Conflicts Climate change ~ Other systemic environmental changes – acting in concert with climate change temperature and rainfall Mean conditions and Variability Glacier loss, sea-level rise Altered surface water Reduced food yields Ecosystem damage Property loss Infra-structure damage Tourism and recreation Physical hazards Direct economic impacts Loss of jobs, livelihoods River flows, dams Microbial ecology (host-animals, vectors, pathogens) Fresh-water availability Food prices, choices Community morale: mental health disorders Hygiene; local food yield Nutrition: child devt, adult health Infectious disease risks Post-event depression, etc. Relocation, disruption Trauma, deaths …..

  3. Deaths Attributable to Climate Change: Year 2000 Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition (~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K) 14 WHO statistical regions scaled by estimated annual mortality (in 2000) due to change in climate since c.1970. Selected major causes of death. (Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on McMichael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al, 2004)

  4. Coldest period, 1570-1660, in Europe during Little Ice Age: Relation to War and Displacement – as Food Yields Plummeted and Prices Rose Cold Period 1570-1660 European Temp Variation standardised units Nth Hemi-sphere Temp Variation oC Rate of Migrations War Fatality Index 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 Zhang et al., PNAS, 2011

  5. Extreme Heat (& Smoke) in Western Russia, Summer 2010 Approx 8oC above normal 60 days: 56,000 extra deaths in Moscow and Western Russia (Munich Re estimate) http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110309_russianheatwave.html

  6. Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline 20002025 2050 Harare Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Low probability Highlands Medium probability High probability Bulawayo Ebi et al., 2005

  7. Harare Bulawayo Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline 20002025 2050 Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Ebi et al., 2005

  8. Harare Bulawayo Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Baseline 20002025 2050 Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low Ebi et al., 2005

  9. Schistosomiasis in China: Modelled future impact of warming on Schistosomajaponicumtransmission Potential transmission zone now 2030: + 0.9oC Yang et al (2005): Northwards drift, over four decades, of winter ‘freeze zone’ that limits water-snail survival – associated with 1.0-1.5oC temp rise in SE China. This has put an extra 21 million people at risk. 2050: + 1.6oC Zhou et al, 2008: “Recent data suggest that schistosomiasis is re-emerging in some settings . …. “Along with other reasons,climate change and ecologic transformations have been suggested as the underlying causes.” Zhou et al.,AmJ Trop Med Hyg 2008;78:188–194.

  10. CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050 20 36 • Plus climate-related: • Flood/storm/fire damage • Droughts – range, severity • Pests (climate-sensitive) • Infectious diseases (ditto) 80 64 Percentage change in yields to 2050 -50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100 UN Devt Prog, 2009

  11. Civil Conflicts, 1950-2004, in Countries Affected and Not/Little Affected by ENSO (n= 93) Affected (n= 82) Annual Conflict Rate (% of countries embroiled) Probability of new civil conflicts breaking out in El Niño years is double that seen in cooler La Niña years El Niño Index (NINO3), oC(May-Dec average SST) Hsiang et al., Nature 2011

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