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NCEP Status of WRF Operational Implementation

NCEP Status of WRF Operational Implementation. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP WRF ExOB Meeting Washington, DC April 28, 2006. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”. 2005 Implementations. HIRESW – June 28, 2005 Increase Resolution

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NCEP Status of WRF Operational Implementation

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  1. NCEP Status of WRFOperational Implementation Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP WRF ExOB Meeting Washington, DC April 28, 2006 “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin”

  2. 2005 Implementations • HIRESW – June 28, 2005 • Increase Resolution • WRF-ARW Runs from 10km->5.8 km • WRF-NMM Runs from 8km->5.1 km • Turn Off Calls to Convective Parameterization • Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) • Addition of Six WRF Members – December 6, 2005 • 3 from ARW • 3 from NMM • Fields Added for Testing in Support of AWIPS OB-7 • Extension from 63 to 87 hours – August 31, 2005 • Grids Added Over Alaska and Hawaii Preserves multi-model diversity

  3. 2006 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecast Ensemble Hurricane HYCOM Ocean NAEFS GFDL G G S I WRF-NMM WRF-ARW Dispersion Global SREF GFS ETA RSM Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW Regional Climate E D A S CFS NAM - Eta MOM3 Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model Rapid Update Cycle L D A S

  4. Upcoming Implementations • Global Forecast System (GFS) • Hybrid Sigma-Pressure GFS – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Analysis, with AIRS & MODIS data – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • NAM • Replace Eta with WRF-NMM – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) • Availability of Level 2 Radar for WRF – 2nd Qtr FY2006 • Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • RTMA is First Component of Analysis of Record (Hourly) • 5km Analysis in Support of NDFD • Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) • Run 4 Cycles Daily – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • Bias Correction for Precipitation – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • NAEFS – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • Increase U.S. Membership from 10 14 Members • Bias Correction and Climate Anomaly Forecasts • Implement Ensemble Transform Method • Significant file system changes • Streamlining data files currently on server • http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/ • Air Quality Forecast • Expanded domain to CONUS – 4th Qtr FY2006 • Replace Eta with WRF-NMM -3rd Qtr FY2006 • RUC – 4 April 2006 (Tentative) • 13 km GRIB2 Grids available on NOAAPORT • Marine Wave Model • 10 member Ensemble Wave model – 3rd Qtr FY2006 • Great Lakes Wave model – 4th Qtr FY2006

  5. Forecast Model Suite of the Future (2007-2008) Hurricane NAEFS HYCOM Ocean WRF G G S I WRF-NMM WRF-ARW SREF GFS Dispersion RSM? Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW R G S I CFS NAM- WRF MOM3 WRF Chem Air Quality NOAH Land Surface Model Rapid Refresh WRF L D A S

  6. Major Paradigm ShiftWeather Research and Forecast Model • Community model approach directed more at ensemble forecast system rather a 1-model deterministic approach • Developmental Test Center (Boulder) • Outreach to academic community • Assessment of new model components

  7. Summary • NCEP is • Undergoing a paradigm shift toward ensemble models in all forecast applications, based on community model approach • Has major implications for the WRF program • Increasing resources will be applied to the SREF • Implementing WRF-NMM to replace the ETA in O6 • Getting ready for 07 implementations

  8. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers • NESDIS research and satellite services • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Begin move to new facility September ’07; complete by April ’08 • Space for 40 visitors • Groundbreaking occurred March 13, 2006

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