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NCEP Status

NCEP Status. Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director. “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”. NWS-OAR Model Issues Meeting December 3, 2012 College Park, MD. Outline. Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite

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NCEP Status

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  1. NCEP Status Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” NWS-OAR Model Issues Meeting December 3, 2012 College Park, MD

  2. Outline • Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite • Ongoing Review Activities • Operational Global Models: How to Improve • Links to OAR • Summary

  3. Strategic Basis for NCEP Model Suite • Climate – Weather Linkage • Earth System Model – approach applied across all scales • Run within ESMF • MMEs applied across all scales • Community model approach

  4. NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission Lead Time and Accuracy! • Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAA • Related to ability to meet service-based metrics (below) • National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics (* Government Performance & Results Act) • Hurricane Track and Intensity • Winter Storm Warning • Precipitation Threat • Flood Warning • Marine Wind Speed and Wave Height • Customer Service Provider • Operational numerical guidance provides foundational tools used by Government, public and private industry to Improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive US economic growth 4

  5. NOAA’s OperationalNumerical Guidance Suite Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast • NOS – OFS • Great Lakes • Northern Gulf of Mex • Columbia R. • Bays • Chesapeake • Tampa • Delaware Climate Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled GFSMOM4 NOAH Sea Ice Sea Nettle Forecast ~2B Obs/Day Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM NEMS-NMMB Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Refresh for Aviation 5 5 NOAH Land Surface Model

  6. Global Data AssimilationSystem Upgrade Implemented 22 May 2012 • Hybrid system • Most of the impact comes from this change • Uses ensemble forecasts to help define background error • NPP (ATMS) assimilated • Quick use of data 7 months after launch • Use of GPSRO Bending Angle rather than refractivity • Allows use of more data (especially higher in atmos.) • Small positive impacts • Satellite radiance monitoring code • Allows quicker awareness of problems (run every cycle) • Monitoring software can automatically detect many problems • Partnership between research and operations • (NASA/GMAO, NOAA/ESRL, Univ OK, and NOAA/NCEP) • Consolidation across systems • Unify operational data assimilation system for global, regional and hurricane applications • Cost effective—O&M • Configuration management

  7. NCEP Closing the International GapJune, July, August 500hPa Geopotential RMSE 2011 2012 Meteo-Fr CMC NCEP UKMO ECMWF Solid line lower than dashed indicates improvement between 2011 and 2012 NCEP Only System to show improvement between 2011 and 2012 • NCEP achieved significant improvement in 2012 for day 3 and beyond • NCEP is now similar to UKMO skill in this metric and AC

  8. NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS)

  9. Ongoing Review Activities • UCAR Review Team • Has made the Strategic Model Plan the #1 priority • Climate Test Bed Advisory Board • Build towards CFS v3, based on community input and climate-weather linkages • Expand MME concept to an “NMME” • Space Weather • Build the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) within next 3-5 years by extending GFS up to 600 km • Weather Models • DTC • NUOPC/ESPC • NAEFS

  10. Operational Global Models: How to Improve • GFS, CFS, MME • Short term plans for FY13-15: build off new computer installation • Longer term plans: • Establish evaluation criteria • Evaluate new model cores • Include within MME approach • Coordinate with NUOPC/ESPC • Include test bed as fundamental part of decision process • Work from written plans (e.g., DA plan)

  11. Planned GFS/GDAS 2013-2014 Operational Upgrade • Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade • Nov 2013 to May 2014 • Follows WCOSS Moratorium • Model configuration • T1148 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~16km0-8 days) • T574 Semi-Lagrangian, L64 (~27km 8-16 days) • Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations • Data assimilation upgrade • 3D-En-Var Dual Resolution • 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 64 vertical levels • New and enhanced observations • Cloudy Radiance • Satellite winds • CrIS from NPP • METOP-B • SSMI/S GPS-RO enhancements • New integrated bias correction • Water Vapour analysis enhancements • Climatological CO2, Methane, Nitrous Oxide and CO for input in CRTM* • Consistent cloud water retrieval in quality control

  12. Planned GFS/GDAS 2015 Operational Upgrade • Next window of opportunity for GDAS/GFS upgrade • Nov 2014 to May 2015 • Follows 2014 hurricane season • Model configuration • T1148L95 (0-8 days) • T547L95 (8-16 days) • Raised model top in preparation for space weather module • Physics upgrades for the radiation and precipitation parameterizations • Data assimilation upgrade • 4D-En-Var Dual Resolution • 80-member ensemble at 27-km and a 16-km analysis with 95 vertical levels • New and enhanced observations • New integrated bias correction

  13. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Project • Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed • NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed • Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales • Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought • Model Evaluation and Development • Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean • Fosters interaction between research and operations • Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center • Participating Organizations: • University of Miami - RSMAS • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) • Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA) • International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI) • Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon) • NASA – GMAO • NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC • NOAA/GFDL • Princeton University • University of Colorado (CIRES Data are available at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/

  14. Links to OAR • CPO • CFS/CTB • DYNAMO • ESRL/Boulder • Rapid Refresh • Data Assimilation • Global Weather • HFIP • Drone Evaluation • GFDL • Oceans! • Climate – NMME, FV dynamic core • Physics • AOML • JCSDA • HFIP • ARL • HYSPLIT • Air Quality • NSSL • Mesoscale MME • Radar DA Keep in mind, we have similar lists for NESDIS and NOS

  15. Summary • NCEP is strategically positioned to work with larger research community extending well beyond OAR (NESDIS, NOS, NSF, NASA, DOE) • Exceptional interaction with OAR – most productive has been initiated through written agreements (DA & FIM most recent examples) • Agree we need a strategy for models and HPCC within NOAA for short term weather (day 1-15; DTC Testbed?) and short term climate (week 2 – seasonal and beyond; CTB) • Implementation process must be inclusive and criteria for decision well-documented. Nevertheless, NCEP Director will still have final say.

  16. THANK YOU

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