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Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology

Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology. Agricultural Census Main survey at start of June, smaller survey at start of December Database of all agricultural holdings in Scotland Data covers land use crops grown

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Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology

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  1. Two more major changes Introduction of Cattle Tracing System data and Review of TIFF methodology

  2. Agricultural Census • Main survey at start of June, smaller • survey at start of December • Database of all agricultural holdings in Scotland • Data covers • land use • crops grown • livestock numbers • ownership/tenancy of land • employment • machinery • Cattle • split into 22 categories by age, sex and dairy/beef • also 8 categories on numbers bought/sold in last year

  3. History of the Cattle Tracing System • UK and EU efforts to improve confidence in beef following the BSE outbreak. • computerised system launched in GB in Sept 1998 (already one in NI). • EU requirement by the end of 1999. • run by the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS), based in Workington - part of DEFRA. • How it works • cattle registered to farm at birth. • ear-tagged with unique ID number, electronic and “paper passport”. • recorded each time moved. • recorded at death. • able to trace exact whereabouts of each animal at any point (in theory) • …so able to trace where it’s been in event of disease outbreak. • DEFRA fill in any gaps in life histories.

  4. How do the data compare? • 50,000 cattle in 1.8 million (about 3%) • consistently more in CTS than in the census

  5. 1 cow represents 10,000 cattle

  6. Are we OK about these differences? • CTS notionally 100% coverage (particularly after cleaning), compared to 70% response and rest imputed (dairy farms particularly bad). • comparison at individual farm level showed bigger differences amongst those with imputed data. • administrative, legal requirement rather than trusting farm records. • landless cattle owners not included in the census, but are in CTS. • differences not related to any particular category. • does anyone care about the actual number, or is it just the changes? • Any other issues? • categories not always the same. • no split between dairy and beef – use breed info, then others on farm. • need to change time series. • Any other benefits? • full data compared to non-response and partial coverage in December. • other data on births, fallen stock, exports and imports, needed for economic modelling of industry, and on breeds. • reduction in burden on census admin team. • reduction in burden on farmer – on all farms, not just the CAP ones.

  7. Review of TIFF methodology National estimate of total net income across the farming sector, based on outputs, costs and subsidies. Used in the compilation of Scottish GDP and UK National Accounts. Methodology regulated by EC.

  8. Jan 2013 changes Cereals Use individual yields for different crops Other crops New seed potato price survey : changes to assumption Horticulture Price data from SRuC survey : use % change in cereal yield for latest year Finished livestock Improved prices and assumptions and correct some anomalies Store livestock Improve calculation of net export income and costs Livestock products Milk quota data for volume, detailed BFREPA data on eggs Capital formation Technical correction to scaling Other activities (see “Expenses” below) Feed Census data used for scaling up FAS, all pigs included not just finisher Seed & fertiliser Small corrections to modelling Expenses Methodology for estimated costs in horticulture (not in FAS) changed. Previous use of SGM not viable given improved info on covered crop. DEFRA hort cost and FAS non-hort activities per hectare applied to horticulture, plus SGM-related methodology for non-hort area. Labour RPI inflator applied to insurance, redundancies, training Interest Correction to methodology Rent - Plus normal updates of first and second estimates

  9. Comparison of 2011 and 2012 published estimates Largest changes Milk & eggs Use of quota and BFREPA data + £78m Costs Revision to FAS modelling - £77m

  10. Jan 2014 changes Cereals Grass seed & turf prices? Other crops Better estimates for mushroom? Horticulture Better estimates for flows, shrubs, etc.? Finished livestock Full review going on. Also inclusion of CTS data Store livestock Full review going on. Also inclusion of CTS data Livestock products Need to work on replacement for milk quota Capital formation Full review going on. Also inclusion of CTS data Other activities - Feed Improve calculation of pig and poultry feed Seed & fertiliser Some assumptions need to be validated Expenses EC requirement to use standard outputs and revised farm-types will change weightings Labour Some improvements in modelling? Interest - Rent Improved tenancy survey data and improved modelling of rental housing estimates Reworked spreadsheets to make less prone to human error Plus normal updates of first and second estimates Publish full documentation

  11. Can you help? Area of expertise? Check out how we model that area Better data sources?

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