Emergency decision model of coalmine sudden gas events based on bayes theory
Issues, such as improving the capacity to timely collect information and correctly analyze the emergency scene after coalmine gas disasters, adjusting response options of emergency plans to make scientific decisions according to analysis and predictions of dynamic changes in uncertainty consequence of specific disasters, have been necessary for research in coalmine sudden gas events. Considering this, this paper analyzed uncertainties of coalmine sudden gas events. Based on Bayes risk decision theory, a mathematical emergency decision model of coalmine sudden gas events was built. Specific cases have been put into practice. Thus, the key point of the optimized emergency decision for coalmine sudden gas events was proposed, as well as practical application values of emergency decision model of coalmine sudden gas events. The application result of the emergency decision model showed, for the accident emergency decision maker, correct judgment in risk of high concentration gas intrusion area is very important to correct selection of emergency decision plans. However, gas concentration dynamically varies within mine workings. Therefore, it is required to correctly select the emergency plan promptly according to gas distribution. During decision making, decision bias and traps shall be avoided as much as possible.
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