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Options in EU- Russian Relations

German-Russian Relations as a Factor of EU‘s Eastern Policy: Goals, Consequences and Shifts of Paradigm. Prof. Dr. Peter W. Schulze Institut für Politische Wissenschaft Georg August Universität Göttingen Paper for Moskau/MEF March 2014. Options in EU- Russian Relations. Integration

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Options in EU- Russian Relations

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  1. German-Russian Relations as a Factorof EU‘s Eastern Policy: Goals, ConsequencesandShiftsofParadigm Prof. Dr. Peter W. SchulzeInstitut für Politische WissenschaftGeorg August Universität GöttingenPaper for Moskau/MEF March 2014

  2. Options in EU-Russian Relations • Integration • Status quo • Modus Vivendi • Revision pws nov 2013 wien jur fak

  3. ConflictReduction -Cold War: Change throughRapprochement • Germany‘s New Eastern policy: Strategic objectives: normalisation, improvementofsocialconditionsandfreermovementof German citicensfromthe GDR to West Germany; • Instruments: acceptationofthe Status quo , including post secondworld war borders, deescalationof conflicts andmovetowardnormalisationofrelationsbetween Eastern and Western European states • „Change throughRapprochement“ (Egon Bahr, 1963) • Thisprinciple was appliedfromthe 1970s untilthenew Millennium • 2005-2009: SPD/CDU black-redcoalition: Partnership in Modernisation: „Change through building networks“

  4. ChallengestoGermany‘s Eastern Policy • Crisisofthe EU and power shiftamwayfromthe French-German Tandem towardBerlin‘sroleas a „reluctanthegemon“ • Quality of US-Leadershipisvaning; Washington needs Europe as a „strategicpartner“ toshoulderchallengesstemmingfrom power shift in the international system • Struggleofthefuture: whocontrolls Germany- Russia a mischief-makerintrudingthetransatlanticrelationship

  5. Gaspipelines to EU-Europe

  6. The Dominanceofthe Ukraine as a Transit Country for Russian Gas

  7. Preisentwicklung Rohöl, Folgen für Perestroika und TransformationOilprices, consequencesforreforms in the 1980s and 1990s

  8. GDP 201- 2014 (est.)

  9. Industrial Productionacc. toSectorsJan.-toJuly 2013 • Industrial production : overall 0% • Metallurgy -0,9% • Machines/Investment goods -6,5% • Electronic, Optics -5,3% • Chemical goods 3,3% • Rubber, Plastics 7,8%

  10. Public debt

  11. Annual New Public Debts

  12. Investments: incoming

  13. Total Investments 2010-2012Countries of Origin, Sectors

  14. GDP in International Comparison

  15. Russian GDP in intern Comparison • GDP growth in 2012 of 3,4% will bereduced in 2013 to 1,8%; • Only in 2014 there will begrowthdeclineto –minus 0,7 %, eventuallyreaching 2,7% in 2017. • In comparison: • China 2012 , growthof 7,8% • Indian growthof 5,4% Russia on thelower rang in BRICS-grouping

  16. Trade : Germany‘s Exports to Russia byeconomicsectors

  17. Russia‘s Exports to global markets

  18. Imports to Russia

  19. German direct Investments in Russia

  20. Russian Trade: Imports accordingtoworldregions

  21. Exports accordingtoworldregions

  22. Trade EU -27 with Russia: Export/Import ofGoods /EU/Russia

  23. Russian Imports accordingtoproducts

  24. Russian Exports accordingtoworldproducts

  25. Foreign Trade Proportion ofCustoms Union with Member States 2008 – 2011, % oftrade) Zagorski 13.07.2012

  26. Russia’s trade with CIS 1994 – 2010Bill. USD and % of Export and Import

  27. EU and Russia: Trade withthe Ukraine2012

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