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Next Generation Lighting Webinar November 30, 2010

Next Generation Lighting Webinar November 30, 2010. About. Sample clients. About the Presenter. Laura Moorefield, LC. Senior Manager,  Policy & Research.

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Next Generation Lighting Webinar November 30, 2010

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  1. Next Generation Lighting Webinar November 30, 2010

  2. About Sample clients

  3. About the Presenter Laura Moorefield, LC Senior Manager,  Policy & Research This presentation is drawn from talks that Laura and Chris Calwell (Ecos founder and Senior Research Fellow) have delivered across the country over the past two years, and most recently, at the October 4-5, 2010, ENERGY STAR Partner Meeting in Denver.

  4. Key Topics Addressed • How will new federal laws affect the residential lighting market? • How will the mix of lighting technologies change in the near term? • How should utilities shift their focus to achieve the greatest net energy savings cost-effectively? Utilities can continue to run cost-effective residential lighting programs before and after the new federal laws take effect. The main take-away

  5. Utility CFL Programs Have Made Tremendous Strides • Utilities have paid rebates on hundreds of millions of CFLs nationwide since the early 1990s, saving billions of kWh • At least 109 U.S. utilities are currently running lighting programs, with a total budget of more than $252 million. • More than 90% of consumers are now aware of CFLs • About 70% of national households now contain at least one CFL • CFLs have achieved a national socket share of about 16% and represent about 20-25% of screw-based general service bulb unit sales • Roughly 3,000 qualifying general service CFL models listed on the ENERGY STAR website • CFLs have become far smaller, more widely available, and more affordable – now commonly available in many types of stores for $2 to $5 apiece without utility rebates

  6. But, the Market is Not Transformed CFL socket saturations are as high as 20-30% in some parts of the country, depending on how we measure it. Source: NMR Group Inc, "Final CFL Modeling Report" (2010)

  7. News of the Incandescent’s Death Has Been Greatly Exaggerated…

  8. What Will EISA Really Do? • EISA does not ban incandescent technology; it sets minimum efficiency requirements for lamps. Many halogen incandescent lamps are available today that pass EISA. • Phases in Tier 1 efficiency requirements for 40 – 100 W general purpose (household) lamps starting in 2012 • Provides weaker requirements for modified spectrum lamps • Exempts 5 lamp types unless sales increase substantially: • Includes provisions for a tougher Tier 2 in 2020 • Requires review and update of current FTC lamp labeling • Allows Nevada & California to enact EISA one year early, or to keep existing state standards in place

  9. EISA’s General Service Incandescent Lamp Standards The way the EISA law is drafted requires manufacturers to reduce wattage, but allows them to greatly reduce light output as well, particularly with modified spectrum bulbs. As a result, many of the incandescent bulbs sold after EISA takes effect will be far dimmer and similar in efficiency to the standard soft white incandescent bulbs sold today. Utilities can help pull the market toward better choices than these minimally compliant bulbs.

  10. Emerging Technologies Offer More Energy-Efficient General Service Lighting Options

  11. New Incandescents are Not Created Equal:Comparison of EISA Compliant “100 W Equivalent” Lamps Visible light transmitted Source: ADLT Infrared light reflected, absorbed by filament Today’s 100 W lamp: 1690 lumens, 16.9 lm/W (not EISA compliant)

  12. Amazon.com Customer Comments On EISA-Compliant EcoVantage Modified Spectrum Lamps • “I have been looking for energy saving light bulbs that don't have mercury - EcoVantage is the answer. The light quality is similar to what I use now and I like the fact that I'm saving on my electric bills. I would recommend this product to anyone looking for an energy saving alternative to CFL's.” • “I love these bulbs! They are so bright. I hate those twist bulbs but wanted to switch to something that is energy saving. I love that they don't have mercury - I really feel like I am doing something for the environment!” • Lamp reviewed: 630 lumens, 43 W, 14.65 lm/W • Advertised as 60 W equivalent • Today’s 60 W typical soft white: 840 lumens, 14 lm/W

  13. EISA Shifts the Baseline and Presents New Program Challenges • For a long time, the “story” has been very simple: CFLs good. Incandescents bad. • Now the consumer education story is more complicated, but also more honest: there is no one right lighting technology for every application. We need a portfolio of options for different applications and customer needs. • Implications: • Net savings from each rebated product will be smaller, but incremental costs will go down • Is a shift to specialty CFLs a move in the right direction? • Residential lighting programs will still cost less than generating electricity • Net to gross ratios for CFLs vary enormously today and may get worse.

  14. New FTC Labels Address Lumen Output & Energy Costs, but Not Wattage Equivalency Existing FTC Label

  15. New Lamp Wattages and Wattage Equivalence Claims Are Proliferating

  16. Education Will Be Needed to Help Consumers Choose Bulbs Based on Lumens, not Watts ?

  17. Australia’s New Consumer Education Approach

  18. U.S. DOE’s New Consumer Education Approach

  19. Program Options for Replacing Today’s 60 W Incandescent Bulbs – The Portfolio Approach Today’s CFLs: more efficient than incandescent bulbs, but behave differently and cannot substitute for all lighting applications Today’s incandescent bulbs: inefficient but inexpensive EISA cuts power use by about 30% Compliant bulbs already on the market, but dimmer than standard incandescents Super-efficient, bright incandescents could fill the gap between CFLs and lamps that just barely meet EISA Improved CFLs and LEDs could yield even greater savings

  20. Emerging Technologies Offer More Energy-Efficient GSL Replacement Options CFLs 2x Incandescent LEDs

  21. General Service LEDs are Getting Brighter and Meeting DOE’s Efficiency Targets Technology Projections* 60 W Eq. 75 W Eq. 2015 2012 2010 2009 * Based on DOE SSL R&D Multi-Year Roadmap (Cool White/Warm White ranges)

  22. Watts Saved by Various Replacement Technologies Before and After EISA 2011 2012 2013 2010 2014

  23. Utilities Use a Wide Range of Assumptions to Calculate CFL Program Cost Effectiveness NTG table source: U.S. DOE, 2010, ENERGY STAR CFL Market Profile

  24. Modeled Program Costs for Lifetime kWh Savings 4.0 ¢ / kWh 2.0 ¢ / kWh 1.0 ¢ / kWh 0.5 ¢ / kWh Note: Utility costs/kWh are total program costs divided by lifetime savings; they are not levelized costs.

  25. Putting Efficiency Program Costs in Context CFL or other residential lighting efficiency programs after EISA may cost more than they do today, but are still likely to cost less than other utility-run efficiency programs and power plants.

  26. How Much Lighting Energy Can Be Saved in a Typical House? -16% - 16% - 51% -51%

  27. Conclusions • EISA does not ban incandescent bulbs • Utilities can continue to run cost-effective residential lighting programs before and after the new federal laws take effect • Confusion about the new lighting technologies will be high – consider shifting some of your incentive budgets to consumer education • Next generation lighting programs will include a mix of technologies—CFLs, LEDs, 2x incandescents, and perhaps others—that will meet the wide variety of consumer needs • New technologies and program approaches can cut residential lighting energy use in half over the next decade – saving more energy than CFLs have saved over the last 20 years

  28. Contact Information Questions and Answers Ted Schultz SVP Strategy & InnovationCharlotte, NC tschultz@ecosconsulting.comM 704-905-4305 Visit our Next Generation lighting site www.ecosconsulting.com/nextgen Laura Moorefield Senior Manager, Research & PolicyDurango, CO lmoorefield@ecosconsulting.comT 970-259-6801 ext. 310

  29. Extra Slides

  30. CFL Imports Have Rebounded after Sharp Declines during the Economic Downturn in 2008 and 2009 2010 set record for highest imports in 1st half of year Data Source: USA Trade Online Source: Ecos Analysis of USA Trade Online Data

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