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Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future?

Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future?. Niels-Erik Clausen Sara Pryor Xiaoli Larsen Rebecca Barthelmie Risø DTU, Denmark. Reijo Hyvönen Ari Venäläinen FMI, Finland Elina Suvilampi University of Turku, Finland Erik Kjellström , SMHI, Sweden.

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Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future?

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  1. Are we facing increasing extreme winds in the future? Niels-Erik Clausen Sara Pryor Xiaoli Larsen Rebecca Barthelmie Risø DTU, Denmark Reijo Hyvönen Ari Venäläinen FMI, Finland ElinaSuvilampi University of Turku, Finland Erik Kjellström, SMHI, Sweden EWEC 2009 Marseille session DT2A, 19 March 2009

  2. Outline • Motivation and context • Climate change • The Climate Energy Systems (CES) project • Approach • Some results • Geostrophic wind in Finland • Applications Acknowledgements The financial support by the Nordic Energy Research and by the energy sector in the Nordic countries is gratefully acknowledged as is the financial support to Sara Pryor from the National Science Foundation.

  3. Context – Nordel* 2007 statistics Nordel Σ(renewable energy) = 58% in 2007 *Nordel is the organisation of the Nordic Transmission System Operators

  4. Climatechange at a glance Emission scenario temp. incr. 2100: 1.1- 6.4ºC sea level rise 18–59 cm less fossil fuels Ref: IPCC, 2007

  5. Climate change at a glance Temperature (K) Precipitation (%) Av. wind (%) HadAM3H ECHAM3 Changes in 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990 (RCAO, A2) Annual average

  6. A lot of research done on temperature changes, precipitation, glaciers and sea level rise …but so far not much work on climate change impact on wind…

  7. Climate & Energy Systems objective • Improve the decision framework of the energy sector with regard to climate change impact on renewable energy resources and the energy system • Project period 2007-2010 • 30+ partners from the 5 Nordic + the Baltic countries • Focus on hydro, wind and biomass • Supported by Nordic Energy Research and the Nordic Energy Industry (DONG Energy Denmark, Statkraft Norway, Elforsk Sweden and the Finnish Energy Industries)

  8. CES deliverables related to extreme wind • Extreme wind atlas of the Nordic countries (50-year wind) • Investigate climate change impact on extreme wind

  9. Approach • Extreme wind is 50-year return wind derived from Gumbel distribution • General circulation models* of atmosphere and sea (4x5º to 1.875ºx1.875º) • Empirical downscaling using Weibull parameters • Comparing model to measurements from 43 stations in historical period • Dynamical downscaling using regional models* (0.44ºx0.44º) • Comparing model data from scenario period to historical period • Geostrophic wind from surface pressure differences • * Selected model runs from Prudence and Emsembles projects

  10. Results

  11. Emperical downscaling of REMO data 50-year return period wind speeds from the REMO data set compared to observational data 50x50 km grid Regional model from Max Planck Institute m/s time periods: REMO 1979-2003 - observations 1982-2000

  12. Empirical downscaling of eight models U50yr at 10 m using the 8 AOGCMs 1961-90 m/s

  13. Change compared to 1961-90 The ensemble average change (%) in U50yr using 8 AOGCMs Δ% * 2 show decrease

  14. Regional model and emission scenario 2071 relative to 1961-90 Rossby Centre regional model ECHAM4 Rossby Centre regional model HadAM3 Δ% Changes in % for grid cells with significant changes

  15. Geostrophic wind in Finland Calculations based on surface pressure diff Calculations based on five climate models

  16. Conclusions • Are we facing increasing extreme wind in the future? • In northern Europe there are indications that we will see 0-10% increase of U50yr in 2100 (63% of stations). • 33% of stations show < 1% change • 4% show decrease • Extreme wind is sensitive to choice of model • Extreme wind appears less sensitive to emission scenario • Essential to use multiple models (AOGCMs) for analysis of climate impact of extreme wind • Next step: analysis of results from DMIs HIRHAM regional model 1950-2100

  17. Impact Design of wind turbines Design of other infrastructure Storebælt bridge Denmark Photo DONG Energy Definition of design basis for FehmernBeltfixed link

  18. Thank you for your attention Project web www.os.is/ces Contact: necl@risoe.dtu.dk Middelgrunden 20 x 2 MW

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