CRGAQS: Revised CAMx 2004 Results

CRGAQS:Revised CAMx 2004 Results Presentation to the Gorge Study Technical Team By ENVIRON International Corporation May 2, 2007

Today’s Presentation • Describe OR/WA emission changes • Describe November 2004 met changes • Revised 2004 CAMx simulation results • Next Steps

Additional WA Funding • 2004 and 2018 emission improvements • 2004 November meteorological improvements • Rerun CAMx • 2004 Base Case, August and November episodes • 2018 Future Case, August and November episodes • 2018 “What-if” scenarios • 2004 and 2018 PSAT runs, both episodes

OR/WA Emission Changes • Reviewed/changed ammonia emissions: • All CAFOs increased: • x1.2 for OR, x1.4 for WA • Three Mile Canyon near Boardman increased x4.3 • head count and “flush” operations identified • Certain fertilizer application types increased • x3.3 for anhydrous and aqueous • x2.7 for nitrogen solution • Checked monthly fertilizer allocation by state (but not changed) • No 2018 WRAP ammonia – WRAP used 2002 numbers for 2018 • We used 2002 WRAP outside OR/WA for 2018 • We used 2004 OR/WA for 2018

OR/WA Emission Changes • Reviewed/changed residential wood combustion: • ODEQ revealed x2 over estimate from surveys • WRAP 2018 RWC indicates x7 growth for OR, x3 growth for WA, from our 2004 RWC • WRAP emissions contractor (ERG) stated a 4% growth (population-based) • We reduced 2004 RWC by 50% and grew by 4% for 2018 • Monthly profiles differ in 2004 from 2018 (but not changed)

OR/WA Emission Changes • Reviewed wind-blown dust methodology • Found some minor issues, but did not change given very small component of overall PM

November Met Changes • Background • August is performing OK, but November lacks secondary aerosols • Lack of fog reduces aqueous SO4 production • Low humidity reduces NO3 condensation • Hypothesis: If we can get the fog right, • Aqueous SO4 production can occur • High humidity will help increase condensation of ammonium nitrate

November Met Changes • Approach • Gather satellite imagery for the period (provided by Paul) • Calculate MM5 average fog water content occurring over the episode -- use as the default water content to fill in the fog “holes” • Evaluate imagery against CAMx cloud plots to identify onset of fog and spatial extent – use terrain fields to define valleys and basins where the fog consistently forms and lingers • Use results from (2) and (3) to fill in fog in CAMx cloud field • Modify CAMx chemistry routine to ensure that relative humidity is 100% for a cloudy grid cell

August 2004 Results

November 2004 Results

Next Steps • 2018 runs are “in the oven” • 2018 “what-if” scenarios are about to start • 2004/18 PSAT runs will start after these are completed • Complete technical report

CRGAQS: Revised CAMx 2004 Results