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EU enlargement labour migration The UK experience so far

2. Floodgates or turnstiles? . The potential scale and impact of migration was one of the most heated aspects of EU enlargementAn unhappy coincidence? The politics and economics of EU met the politics and economics of migrationResult = media frenzy that fed into wider fears about migration, benefi

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EU enlargement labour migration The UK experience so far

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    1. EU enlargement & labour migration The UK experience so far Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah Institute for Public Policy Research (ippr) www.ippr.org d.sriskandarajah@ippr.org

    2. 2 Floodgates or turnstiles? The potential scale and impact of migration was one of the most heated aspects of EU enlargement An unhappy coincidence? The politics and economics of EU met the politics and economics of migration Result = media frenzy that fed into wider fears about migration, benefit tourism, failing government policies, Roma etc. Six months on, let’s untangle issues, examine evidence, and assess whether policies were good.

    3. 3 Main concerns for EU15 Large scale of the enlargement (10 new members and 75 million people) Large economic disparities between existing and new members Large and uncontrolled flows of unskilled or low-skilled workers that will undercut wages in EU15 countries. Predicted stock: 3-4 million in EU15; 200,000 in UK Predicted annual flows: 370,000 to EU15; 17,000 to UK

    4. 4 Transitional restrictions Concerns about impact of migration on some EU15 countries led to transitional restrictions being permitted as part of the Accession treaties. These restrictions: can only be imposed up to 2011 at the latest; can only be applied to workers and services and not other flows (e.g. visitors, students); Countries like Germany & Austria indicated early on that they would impose restrictions but other EU15 countries imposed restrictions at the last minute.

    5. 5 UK pragmatism UK decided to allow migrant workers access because: unemployment is low at the moment; there are skills shortages that accession nationals can fill; more legal flows will reduce demand for illegal workers; the UK stands to gain an early starter advantage. Worker Registration Scheme

    6. 6 6 months on… 91,000 applicants between May – September 56% Polish; 17% Lithuanian; 10% Slovak 53% male; 47% female Falling applications: from 20k to 10k a month Around half arrived before 1 May Mostly young: 45% 18-24; 39% 25-34 16% factory workers; 7% kitchen; 7% waiters; 5% packer; 5% cleaning; 5% farm hands Low wage: 80% earning 4.50-5.99 per hour Dispersed: 25% London; 15% Anglia; Southeast Very few benefits claims

    7. 7 A new approach? Good example of using migration to pursue economic and political priorities: Achieved political compromise domestically Assured public Helped relationships with accession states Tackled illegal working Promoted economic efficiency Good source of data But influence of media and public concern still strong

    8. 8 Key questions Did the UK have exceptional conditions? When will other EU15 states relax restrictions? What is the balance between controlled and uncontrolled migration? What will happen to other flows of migrants? Implications for future EU enlargement? How much of migration management is about managing public opinion?

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