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The Influence of Migration on Exposure to Extreme Weather Events: A Case Study in Mexico. Dan Miller Runfola Paty Romero- Lankao National Center for Atmospheric Research – CGD & RAL CU:Boulder Institute of Behavioral Science Leiwen Jiang Raphael Nawrotzki Landy Sanchez Lori Hunter.
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The Influence of Migration on Exposure to Extreme Weather Events: A Case Study in Mexico Dan Miller Runfola Paty Romero-Lankao National Center for Atmospheric Research – CGD & RAL CU:Boulder Institute of Behavioral Science Leiwen Jiang Raphael Nawrotzki Landy Sanchez Lori Hunter
Methods - Summary • A hypothetical scenario of 2010 is created which represents the distribution of population within Mexico had no migration occurred from 2005 to 2010. • The total number of disaster events between 2005 and 2010 is tabulated for each municipality. • The observed number of people living within each municipality in 2010 is multiplied by the number of disaster events for each municipality. This value can be interpreted as the maximum number of times individuals could have been exposed to a natural disaster (possible person- events). • The same multiplication procedure is replicated for the “No Migration” 2010 scenario created in step 1. • The two maps are compared to determine where migration mitigated and increased total exposure to environmental hazards.
2010 Observed – 2010 Scenario Population (i.e., Net Migration)
Conclusions • Migration contributed to a net ~1% decrease in the number of potential person events between 2005 and 2010. • Municipalities range from -8% to +14% changes. • Largest positive %increases found in small rapidly growing communities. • Urban to Urban (and suburban) migration streams are critical in these changes.
Next Steps • Extend Internationally • Data: Producing circa 2010 migrant stock data for every country using UN sources • With this data we could theoretically conduct the same analysis at the international scale. • However, putting a migrant back in a large country like the U.S. makes it difficult to attribute spatially-explicit disasters.
Next Steps • Extend to other Countries • Data for the U.S. and China available, though uncertain of spatial resolution for China • Explore correlations between migration and the environment at very broad temporal scopes: Do countries that have a positive net migration tend to be countries with higher or lower exposure? Vulnerability?
