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Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for Conservation

Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for Conservation. Jonathan Thompson thompsonjr@si.edu. What if?. or…. or…. Writ large…. For a given climate scenario… :. Developed?. Aggregate changes. Harvested?. Forest Condition. Conservation?.

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Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for Conservation

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  1. Analyzing the Future of Rural Forests in Massachusetts - Implications for Conservation Jonathan Thompson thompsonjr@si.edu

  2. What if? or… or… Writ large…

  3. For a given climate scenario…: Developed? Aggregate changes Harvested? Forest Condition Conservation? Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose Wind or Ice? Map species & biomass

  4. For a given climate scenario…: Developed? Aggregate changes Harvested? Forest Condition Conservation? Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose Wind or Ice? Map species & biomass

  5. Actual Forest Loss to Development 1985 to 1999

  6. Probability of Future Forest Loss

  7. Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development Size of New Developments N = 300 Ave = 55%

  8. Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development • 4300 ha /yr • 5 development treatments (historical size and intensity) • Historical spatial distribution

  9. For a given climate scenario…: Developed? Aggregate changes Harvested? Forest Condition Conservation? Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose Wind or Ice? Map species & biomass

  10. Simulating Current Trends:Timber Harvest Actual Timber Harvest 1985 to 2004 POPULATION DENSITY > 13,000 Harvests

  11. Development Probability Harvest

  12. Simulating Current Trends:Timber Harvest • 10,500 ha/yr • 6 different treatments (historical size, species & intensity) • Historical spatial distribution

  13. For a given climate scenario…: Developed? Aggregate changes Harvested? Forest Condition Conservation? Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose Wind or Ice? Map species & biomass

  14. For a given climate scenario…: Developed? Aggregate changes Harvested? Forest Condition Conservation? Establish, Grow, Compete, Die & Decompose Wind or Ice? Map species & biomass

  15. Fifty-years of Carbon sequestration at “Current Trends” Growth only = + 70% Conversion = - 8 % Timber Harvests = - 2 % Climate Change = + 6 %

  16. Not a lot of difference in relative spp abundance. ALL OTHER BELE BEPA FAGR ACSA3 BELE QURU TSCH PIST ACRU • White Pine and Red Maple were 1st & 2nd irrespective • Climate change reinforced their dominance • Harvesting reduced Red Oak from 11 to 9.5% • Development was indiscriminate in terms of species

  17. Take home message: Assuming Future Land Use Resembles the Recent Past • Continued forest recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next fifty years • Climate change may enhance the rate of carbon sequestration, BUT this will be more than offset by losses due to land-use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.

  18. "Future Directions" • Complete multiple, stake-holder driven scenarios for MA • Link a series of alternative scenarios to metrics of water and habitat quality • Develop New England-wide approach • Host workshop with potential partners in other regions

  19. Questions? Jonathan R. Thompson, PhD Research Ecologist Smithsonian Institution thompsonjr@si.edu 540.635.6580

  20. subsequent slides are for use in case of questions.

  21. Initial Forest Condition MA GNN Work led by Ty Wilson, USFS Northern Research Station

  22. Initial Forest Condition From Imputation of field data: Species Distributions, Age Class Distributions, Above Ground Biomass

  23. Initial Forest Condition r = 0.7 RMSE = 44Mg ha-1

  24. Simulating Current Trends:Housing Development

  25. Species Harvested

  26. PnET-ii Aber et al. LINKAGES Pastor et al. ANPP PEST LANDIS-II: Forest Landscape Simulator Scheller and Mladenoff LANDIS-II WITH MODULES COMPETITION/ SUCCESSION SEED DISPERSAL IPCC CLIMATE SCENARIOS HARVESTING TREE SPECIES ESTABLISHMENT CONSERVATION LAND USE CHANGE LIVING BIOMASS INSECTS / DISEASE DEAD BIOMASS SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE PROCESSES NON-SPATIAL COMMUNITY PROCESSES

  27. Parsing the Current Trends Simulation experiment with full factorial design and five replicates of each simulation (based on power analysis)

  28. 16%

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