Phase Two Results

2. Phase Two Results • Phase 1 conclusions disseminated, discussed, and confirmed • Both WB and country strategies and plans based on more thorough assessment of exposure, impacts, capacity, and vulnerabilities • Hydromets, MOA, Academy of Sciences, and other official stakeholders gained improved understanding of benefits of participation and coordination • How to implement strategies: incorporate into strategy and project creation process

3. Mainstreaming CAS/CPS/PRSP • Impact already noted: “exogenous shock” in Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan • Not always considered, even for some highly exposed countries • Disaster mitigation included into matrix as environmental measure: mandate for drought management and mitigation projects under this framework, but little specific linkage

4. Poverty Studies • Many drought-prone areas are also among the most highly impoverished • If drought and other disasters can be considered as a factor, easier to target measures • Methodological challenge: expand or incorporate into attempts at integrating cross-cutting issues into poverty studies, e.g. water in Armenia

5. Projects • Related areas: water (irrigation, hydropower, municipal, fisheries), agriculture, rural and community development, environment, disaster management, transportation and other infrastructure • More coherent and specific framework (CAS/CSP/PRSP) may help to maximize benefits for drought (and flood) management and mitigation in projects; consider specific conditions of drought-prone areas and populations at risk • Specific linkage within projects, e.g. targeting drought prone areas with appropriate mitigation interventions, community participation in disaster management • ERR: limitations of impact assessment data and risk analysis in countries

6. Harmonization • Cross-cutting frameworks: UNFCCC, UNCCD, CIDA Climate Change, CACILM, UNDP Disaster Management, WFP • Sector projects: SDC IWRM, USAID South Caucasus WRM, ICARDA • Meteorological and hydrological projects: WMO, NOAA • Limitations: sequencing, incongruent funding mechanisms and procedures, centralization of donors/IFIs, domestic governance (budget disclosure) • Importance of country leadership • Focus on future: new aid vehicles and instruments, e.g. pooled funding, multi-donor trust funds, shared analytic work, training material, etc.

7. Central Asia - Profile • Lowland areas have constant moisture deficit • Water resources: variability of rivers; management of reservoirs and dams • Observation and early warning for water by Uzglavgidromet; distant posts out of commission • Climate change and Aral Sea • Water allocation for Aral Sea basin by ICWC

8. Kazakhstan - Profile • Moderate or severe drought annually in one or more areas • Observation network being rebuilt, but early warning does not reach most end users • Downstream water user in Aral Sea basin • Local level water management institutions are weak • Rainfed cropland in north: drought-induced losses 11 of last 20 years; some mitigation measures implemented • Rangeland: mobility and grazing patterns • Disaster management plan does not adequately consider drought

9. Kazakhstan - Strategies • Draft National Drought Plan: • Strengthen observation, forecasting, early warning (including NDVI for wheat and rangeland); • Long-term prognosis and climate change • Mainstreaming, e.g. tenure arrangements and mobility in rangeland management, demand-side measures and local institutions in water sector • Coordinated response and recovery

10. Kyrgyz Republic - Profile • Drought in Talas valley, Issiq Qol, Inner Tien Shan; floods follow droughts • Observation and early warning network is outdated or decrepit • Significant water resources • Reservoir management: 80% of electricity from hydropower • IWRM is nascent • Pasture degradation, owing to less atlitudinal migration

11. Kyrgyz Republic - Strategy • Repair observation, especially snowpack and glaciers • Create appropriate early warning networks • Continue with IWRM • Rangeland and herds: rotational grazing; mobility • Community watershed management • Include drought into disaster management frameworks

12. Tajikistan - Profile • Drought conditions every year in summer: valleys and foothills in north; deserts in southwest and in mountains • Enormous water resources • Many observation posts and stations inoperable, especially in remote areas: lack of data, unreliable forecasts • Agricultural drought in 2001: $50 million, external deficit and funding gap worsened • Reservoir management • Subsistence farming more widespread; informal production quotas constrain diversification • Rural poverty is widespread, especially in drought-prone areas of Khatlon and Sugh Provinces

13. Tajikistan - Strategy • Determine funding gap in disaster management • Improve observation, especially glaciers and snowpack • Early warning institutions, e.g. WUAs • Eliminate production quotas and other informal controls • Community watershed management • Continue to emphasize long-term mitigation in recovery operations

14. Turkmenistan - Profile • Meteorological drought is a permanent condition • Information control: early warning; appeals for aid in international community • Hydrological drought depends upon upstream and in-country water management (irrigation from Kara Kum) • Rangeland sensitive to drought, but monitoring inadequate • Contingency planning for water shortage is outdated • Waterlogging and land salinization are widespread • Production plans constrain diversification • Household water supply • Desertification and desiccation of the Aral Sea

15. Turkmenistan - Strategy • Expand observation and early warning into Kara Kum • Resolve transboundary issues • Improve Water Code, build support for IWRM, and create Water Shortage Response Plan • Improve efficiency of irrigation • Water harvesting, e.g. takyrs • Liberalize agricultural policy • Improve household water supply

16. Uzbekistan - Profile • In lowlands, severe drought every decade • Strong capacity in observation and forecasting • Use of 60% of water in Aral Basin, mostly from upstream to irrigate 3.5 million ha • State control of economy, especially agriculture, although reforms are proceeding rapidly • Little community participation in early warning and disaster management • Rural poverty, demographic surge, and off-farm employment • Most drought-prone area (Karakalpakistan) is located in ecological disaster zone • Disaster management capacity improved, but drought not included into the framework

17. Uzbekistan - Strategy • Liberalize markets (especially cotton and wheat) and relax trade barriers • Create suitable early warning for agricultural drought • Resolve transboundary water issues • Build support for IWRM, create Water Shortage Response Plan, resolve WUA development issues • Improve land management throgh better monitoring and establishment of sound tenure arrangements • Involve communities in disaster management • Improve coordination through establishment of a Working Group for drought planning, mitigation, and response

18. Central Asia - Strategy • Trade liberalization • Conduct regional studies under UNFCCC and UNCCD • Proposed Regional Center: for monitoring and prognosis or scientific research? • CACILM: partial implementation through ICARDA and IWMI • ICWC: regional Water Shortage Response Plan (possibly as part of SDC IWRM project); information sharing • Mainstream into efforts to ameliorate desiccation of the Aral Sea and Regional Environmental Action Plan