California Water Plan Update 2003 & Beyond

1. California Water PlanUpdate 2003& Beyond California Water and Environmental Modeling Forum Annual Meeting February 25, 2004

2. Talk Overview • Part 1 - Preparing the Plan • Part 2 - Developing a New Analytical Framework for the California Water Plan • Discussion • Anatomy of Models • CWEMF Role with Long Term Framework

3. Part 1 – Preparing the Plan • Water Plan Update Overview & Process • New Planning Framework • Limitations & Phased Work Plan • Content & Document Organization • Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d Actions

4. Water Plan Overview • Program 10 > 1 of 6 DWR Goals • Required by law (Water Code) • First Water Plan -Bulletin 3 (1957) • Seven Updates (Bulletin 160) • Update every five years • Last in 1998 Next in 2003 • State’s Master or Strategic Plan

5. California Water Plan • Purpose • Strategic plan for state policy/decision makers • Guide for managing & developing CA water • Framework for investing public funds • Content • Basic information - water resources & system • Current water supplies and uses • Scenarios for future supplies and use • Recommendations (Strategies & State Role) • Footnotes • No mandates; No spending authorizations • Not project or site specific; No CEQA

6. Water Plan Update 2003DWR Goals & Approach • Goals • Meet Water Code requirements • Expand public input • Develop a “useful” plan • Approach • Open & transparent public process • Seek collaborative recommendations • Strategic Planning model; New framework

7. www.waterplan.water.ca.gov

8. New Planning Framework • 65-member Public Advisory Committee • Water Portfolios using 1998, 2000, 2001 data • Regional Reports reflecting regional challenges, goals, and planning efforts • Multiple Scenariosto identify and plan for future uncertainties and risks • Many Strategies to meet future water demands while sustaining our resources and economy

10. Issues & Challenges • Significant data and information gaps • Analytical tools for long-range planning are not fully developed • Revising process impacted schedule • Reduced DWR staff & budget

11. Phased Work Plan • June 2004 • Public Review Draft of Water Plan Update • Narratives of four 2030 Future Scenarios • Short & Long-term Work Plan for Data & Tools • December 2004 • Public Comment & Release Final Update • Select methods to quantify 2030 Scenarios • 2005 (Begins Update 2008) • Conduct Quantitative Studies for 2030 Scenarios

12. Five Volumes of Update • Vol. 1 – Strategic Plan • Findings, Recommendations & Implementation • Vol. 2 – 25 Resource Mgmt Strategies • Vol. 3 – 12 Regional Reports • 10 Hydrologic Regions, Mt. Counties & Delta • Vol. 4 – Reference Guide • Supplemental articles • Vol. 5 – Technical Guide (Electronic Only) • Documentation for data, methods & tools

13. Volume 1 – Strategic Plan • Foreword & Users Guide • Executive Summary • Findings & Recommended Actions • Ch 1 – Plan Overview • Ch 2 – CA Water Today (Statewide View) • Ch 3 – Planning for an Uncertain Future • Ch 4 – Regional Integrated Resource Plng • Ch 5 – State Role & Responsibilities • Ch 6 – Implementation & Finance

14. Agricultural Use Efficiency Conj. Mgmt/GW Storage Conveyance Desalination Drinking Water Treatment & Distribution Economic Incentives Policy Ecosystem Restoration Floodplain Management Groundwater/Aquifer Remediation Matching WQ to Use Pollution Prevention Precipitation Enhancement Recharge Area Protection Recycled Municipal Water Surface Storage – Bay-Delta Program Surface Storage –Region/Local System Reoperation Urban Land Use Management Urban Runoff Management Urban Water Use Efficiency Water-Dependent Recreation Water Transfers Watershed Management Working Lands Management Other Strategies (R&D) Volume 2Resource Management Strategies(Definition, Current Level, 2030 Potential & Cost, Benefits, Issues & Recommendations)

15. Volume 3 - Regional ReportsRegional Perspective • Outline • Setting • Existing “State of the Region” • Looking to the Future • Featuring • Flow Diagrams, Water Balances for 1998, 2000 & 2001 • Water Quality summary • Regional water planning efforts • Examples of water management & restoration programs

17. Water Plan Vision for 2030 California has adequate, reliable and sustainable water of suitable quality for all beneficial uses.

18. Water Plan Goals for 2030 • Improved quality of life for projected 53 million Californians. • Sustained economic growth, business vitality and agricultural industry. • Protected and restored ecosystems. • Environmental justice for all Californians. • Stronger State leadership, coordination, and oversight and more public investment. • Regions play the central role in integrated water & resource planning. • Local and regional planners diversify management strategies. • Local govmts and agencies improve coordination of land use planning with water planning and management. • State-supported investigations, and R&D of promising new technologies. • Planners make more informed (less risky) decisions. • Fewer gaps in data & analytical tools; better access to information.

19. Water Management Objectives • Integrate & optimize management strategies • Provide water supply benefits • Increase drought resiliency • Improve water quality • Increase operational flexibility & efficiency • Improve flood control • Increase energy generation or reduce use • Increase recreation opportunities • Enhance instream, riparian or terrestrial ecosystems • Reduce groundwater overdraft • Reduce pollution • Reduce runoff, drainage or tailwater • Reduce uncertainty & risk

20. Key Themes, Findings & Rec’d • State leadership & oversight for statewide assessments, protecting public assets; doing what regions can’t do by and for themselves • State promote & assist regionally-based, integrated, multi-resource planning • State fill data/tool gaps & support R&D • Regions diversify water portfolios choosing from 25 resource management strategies • Locals improve coordination of land use planning with water planning/management

21. 3.5 to 6 MAF Additional Demandsfor 2030 Current Trends Scenario • To maintain QOL for 17 million more Californians • Additional 2 - 3 million acre-feet • To recover groundwater overdraft • Additional 1 - 2 million acre-feet • To protect & restore degraded ecosystems • Additional 0.5 – 1 million acre-feet • To sustain econ growth & agricultural industry • About the same as now

22. DRAFT 1/30/2004Implementation and Investment Guide to 2030

23. Contact Information Kamyar Guivetchi, P.E. Manager, Statewide Water Planning DWR, Planning & Local Assistance 901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento (916) 653-3937 kamyarg @ water.ca.gov www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov

24. Part 2Developing a New Analytical Framework for the CWP • Background and Context • Anatomy of Models • Proposed CWP Framework • Proposed Conceptual Model • Principles for framework • Short Term Approach and Beyond • Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF

25. Last Year at Asilomar …

26. What has Happened Since? • Advisory committee was not comfortable with proposed approach • Didn’t fully support or understand some of the models and modeling • Disagreed with using a single vision of future conditions • DWR lacked resources to address problems within schedule • DWR decided to take a slower, fundamentally different approach rather than disregard feedback

27. Where We Are Now • State has leadership role in evaluating statewide water management strategies • Complexity of CWP has increased • DWR has held numerous public workshops to develop a proposed analytical framework • Proposal has not been presented to or approved by full Advisory Committee

28. Anatomy of Models(Developed by Ken Kirby) • Conceptual model • Theoretical model • Numerical model • Data • Data management • Software

29. Definitions • Conceptual Model - A description or analogy used to help visualize something that cannot be directly observed • Theoretical Model - A system of postulates, data, and inferences presented as a description of an entity or state of affairs

30. Definitions • Numerical Model - An analytical tool that employs quantitative approximations to the solutions of mathematical problems

31. Proposed CWP Framework Identify Required Information 2003 - 2004 Develop Conceptual Models 2004 - 2006 Develop Theoretical Models Develop Short Term Approach Conduct Quantitative Analysis for Update 2008 2005 - 2007

32. Climate Conditions Water Management System Ag/Urban Demands Ecosystem Demands Ag/Urban Wants Ecosystem Wants Economic and Performance Indicators Conceptual Model

33. Straw Proposal for Presenting Conceptual Models Agricultural Water Demands Urban Water Demands Required Input Desired Output Desired Output Required Input

34. Principles for Development and Application of Tools and Data • Strategy • Transparency • Long-Term Viability • Coverage • Accountability and Quality Control

35. Short Term Approach Inventory analytical tools using “Anatomy of Models” Compare theoretical models to existing tools, data and conceptual models Propose changes to existing tools and data Develop list of data needs Modify existing tools and data

36. Quantitative Analysis for Water Plan Update 2008 Future scenarios Performance measures Interpret and describe results

37. Update 2008 and Beyond • Improve existing tools using conceptual model • Fill data gaps • Develop Water Plan Information Exchange (Water PIE)

38. Discussion and Possible Roles for CWEMF • Anatomy of Models and CWP proposed framework • Detailed inventory of existing tools and data • Proposed conceptual models, desired output, and required input • Evaluating adequacy of tools

39. Contact Information Rich Juricich, P.E., M.S. Statewide Water Planning DWR, Planning & Local Assistance 901 P St., 2nd Floor, Sacramento (916) 651-9225 juricich @ water.ca.gov www.WaterPlan.water.ca.gov