Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Eighth Edition by Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown

1. Investment Analysis and Portfolio ManagementEighth Editionby Frank K. Reilly & Keith C. Brown

2. Komponen analisis pasar Analisis pasar makro • Adanya kekuatan yang berhubugan anatara ekonomi dan pasar saham • Pasar sekuritas mencerminkan apa Yng diharapkan untuk kelangsungan ekonomi karena nilai dari suatu investasi di tentukan oleh : • cash flows yang diharapkan • rate of return diinginkan (i.e., the discount rate)

3. pasar sahamsebagai indikator utama Harga saham mencerminkan ekspektasi alaba, deviden dan tingkat bunga Reaksi/pengaruh pasar saham oleh berbagai rentetan indikator utama Harga saham berubah secara konsisten sebelum ekonomi berjalan Akativitas ekonomi dan pasar sekuritas

4. Rentetan Ekonomi dan harga saham • Rentetan ekonomi yang dikategorikan oleh dua lembaga • Sekelompok rentetan ekonomi yang ditunjukan oleh the National Bureau of Economic Research • Rentetan keuangan alternatif dipengaruhi oleh the Federal Reserve

5. pendekatan ini menyatakan bahwa ekonomi agregat berkembang Pendekatan indikator siklus untuk Forecasting ekonomi

6. Pendekatan indikator siklus untuk Forecasting ekonomi • Biro Nasional Riset Ekonomi (NBER)Kategori indikator siklus- indikator utama- indikator bertepatan/bersamaan- indikator lagging • Seri gabungan dan rasio seri

7. Indikator utama - rentetan ekonomi yang biasanya mencapai puncak atau lembah sebelum sesuai puncak atau bawah dalam kegiatan ekonomi agregat Indikator bersamaan - rentetan ekonomi yang memiliki puncak dan bawah yang kira-kira bertepatan dengan puncak dan lembah dalam siklus bisnis Kategori indikator siklus

8. Indikator Lagging/beda – rentetan economi bahwa mereka sudah megalami dipuncak dan dibawah dalam ekonomi agregat memilih series – rentetan ekonomi bahwa yang tidak termasuk dalam salah satu dari tiga kelompok utama Kategori indikator siklus

9. Cyclical Indicator Approach to Forecasting the Economy • Analytical measures of performance • Indek sebaran • Trends/kecenderungan • rates of change/tingkat perubahan • direction of change/arah perubahan • comparison with previous cycles/dibandingkan dengan siklus sebelumnya

10. Cyclical Indicator Approach to Forecasting the Economy • Keterbatasan cyclical indicator approach • Sinyal palsu • mata uang dari data dan revisi • Belum ada rentetan mencerminkan sektor jasa • Belum ada rentetan mewakili ekonomi global • perkembangan politik dan internasional tidak diperhitungkan dalam sistem statistik

11. Cyclical Indicator Approach to Forecasting the Economy Other leading indicator series • CIBCR: • Long-leading index • leading employment index • Leading inflation index • Analisis alternatif indikator utama inflasi • rentetan indikator utama internasional • Survei sentimen dan harapan

12. Monetary Variables, the Economy, and Stock Prices • Money supply and the economy • Money supply and stock prices • Inflation, interest rates, and security prices

13. Declines in the rate of growth of the money supply have preceded business contraction by an average of 20 months Increases in the rate of growth of the money supply have preceded economic expansions by about 8 months Money Supply and the Economy

14. Excess Liquidity and Stock Prices Historical Excess Liquidity in the United States Historical Excess Liquidity in Foreign Countries Money Supply and Stock Prices

15. Monetary Variables, the Economy, and Stock Prices • Other economic variables and stock prices • growth in industrial production • changes in the risk premium • twists in the yield curve • measures of unanticipated inflation • changes in expected inflation during periods of volatile inflation

16. Inflation, Interest Rates, and Security Prices • Inflation and interest rates • generally move together • investors are not good at predicting inflation • Inflation rates and bond prices • negative relationship • more effect on longer term bonds • Inflation, Interest rates and stock prices • not direct and not consistent • effect varies over time

17. Analysis of World Security Markets • Goldman, Sachs & Co. World Investing Strategy Highlights • Inflation and exchange rates • Correlations among returns • Individual country stock price changes • Individual country analysis • World asset allocation

18. Microvaluation Analysis • The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) • The Free Cash Flow to Equity Model (FCFE) • The Earnings Multiplier Technique • Other Relative Valuation Ratios

19. Estimating Expected Earnings Per Share • Estimating Gross Domestic Product • Estimating Sales per Share for a Market Series • Alternative Estimates of Corporate Net Profits • Estimating Aggregate Operating Profit Margin • Estimating Depreciation Expense • Estimating Interest Expense • Estimating the Tax Rate

20. Estimating the Stock Market Earnings Multiplier • Determinants of the Earnings Multiplier • Estimating the Required Rate of Return • Estimating the Growth Rate of Dividends • Estimating the Dividend-Payout Ratio

21. Calculating an Estimate of the Value for the Market Series • It is important to understand the relevant variables and how they relate to the critical estimates of earnings per share and the earnings multiplier • The two critical estimates that are necessary for both the cash flow models and the earnings multiplier approach are the required rate of return discount rate and the expected growth rate of earnings, cash flow, and dividends

22. Using Other Relative Valuation Ratios • The price-to-book-value ratio (P/BV) • The price-to-cash-flow ratio (P/CF) • The price-to-sales ratio (P/S)

23. Microvaluation of World Markets It is crucial to keep three important factors in mind: • The basic valuation model and concepts apply globally • While the models and concepts are the same, the input values can and will vary dramatically across countries • The valuation of non-domestic markets will almost certainly be more onerous because of several additional variables or constraints that must be considered such as exchange rate risk and country or political risk

24. http://www.morganstanley.com http://www.globalinsight.com http://www.yardeni.com http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/esbr.html http://www.federalreserve.gov http://www.worldbankorg http://www.phil.frb.org/econ/forecast/index.html http://www.spglobal.com/index.html http://www.bis.org/cbanks.htm http://www.bankamerica.com/ http://www.nabe.org http://www.conference-board.org http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/pubs.htm http://www.stats.bls.gov http://www.cbo.gov http://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/ http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/browse.html http://www.census.gov/csd/qfr http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin The InternetInvestments Online

25. End of Chapter 12 Macroanalysis and Microvaluation of the Stock Market

26. Future TopicsChapter 13 • Industry Analysis