Is the Environment a Security Issue?

Is the Environment a Security Issue? Emily Meierding Department of Political Science University of Chicago meierding@uchicago.edu

Climate Insecurity? “Climate stress may well represent a challenge to international society just as dangerous –and more intractable—than the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war or the proliferation of nuclear weapons among rogue states today.” --Thomas Homer-Dixon, NYT Upper left image: National Geographic (2008).

Overview • Does climate change create real-world insecurity? (empirical concern) 2. Should we call climate change a security issue? (normative concern)

The Academic Perspective Q: Is climate change a security issue?

The Academic Perspective Q: Is climate change a security issue? A: Maybe. We don’t know (yet?)

Data Problems For the most part, for environmental variables • We don’t have data at the regional level • We don’t have multiple years of national data • We don’t have data for all countries • Data were often collected in different years

The Climate Change-Security Equation Climate Change (in)Security

The Climate Change-Security Equation Climate Change (in)Security = Temperature Change

The Climate Change-Security Equation Climate Change (in)Security = Temperature Change = Civil War

The Climate Change-Security Equation Climate Change (in)Security ? = Temperature Change = Civil War

Violent State Response Causal Pathways Riots in over- crowded slums Police response Rebellion Rise in Temp. Conflict with local ethnic groups Armed intervention by state Migration (urban) Crop Failure Migration (rural) State weakness Coup attempts Reduction in state revenue Decline in social services Grievance- induced rebellion

Previous Research • NATO • Environment and Conflicts Project (ENCOP), led by Gunther Baechler. • Environmental Change and Conflict Project (ECACP), led by Thomas Homer-Dixon. Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (1999) and Ecoviolence (1998), edited by THD and Jessica Blitt • Collapse (2005), Jared Diamond CRITICISM: • Nils Petter Gleditsch, “Armed Conflict and the Environment: a Critique of the Literature” (1998) Journal of Peace Research.

Violent State Response Causal Pathways Riots in over- crowded slums Police response Rebellion Rise in Temp. Conflict with local ethnic groups Armed intervention by state Migration (urban) Crop Failure Migration (rural) State weakness Coup attempts Reduction in state revenue Decline in social services Grievance- induced rebellion

Security: of What and for Whom? Conventional View: National Military Security New Perspectives: • 1970s: Economic Security, Energy Security • 1980s: Food Security • 1987: Human Security, The Brundtland Report “Redefining Security” to include the environment • Lester Brown (1977) • Jessica Tuchman Mathews (1989)

The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit Military polluters The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit Military polluters Us vs. them thinking The Language of Security PROS CONS

Heightened sense of importance More $$$ Increases popular mobilization Promotes solidarity Burnout Bad fit Military polluters Us vs. them thinking Empowers nasty regimes The Language of Security PROS CONS

Alternative Frameworks • Agricultural issue • Economic Development issue • Governance issue • Human Rights/ Social Justice issue

Is the Environment a Security Issue?