Members’ Seminar 30th November 2012

1. Members’ Seminar 30th November 2012 Five Year Estimates, Budget and Precepts 2013/2014 to 2017/2018 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

2. Background • Medium Term Financial Strategy encourages a look beyond the next year to 2017/2018 • Potential variability limits certainty but looking to estimate for 10 Years • Biggest changes in Local Government Financing probably since re-organisation early 70’s • More Uncertainty Until New System Settled North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

3. This Year’s Middle Way • Council Tax Freeze 2012/13 (√) • Continuing Grant Reductions (√) • 2013/14 to 2015/16:Savings of £2.5m required over the three years (√) • 3% pa Council Tax after 2012/2013 (X) • Use Some Reserves in 2013/2014 (X) North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

4. 2013/2014 Assumptions • A Pay award of 1% • General Price Inflation of 2% • 5% Vacancies in Retained Establishment • No Change to Employers Pension Contribution • New Burdens Fully Funded • All budgeted savings delivered • Neutral Reduction in Taxbase/Grant Provision • 7%+ Reduction in Grant (Exc CT Freeze Grant) North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

5. A Balanced Base Budget • Expenditure down 1.9% (£629,000) • Income down 11.8% (£284,000) • 1.06% increase in Council Tax • Add £155,000 to Reserves and Increase Council Tax by just under 2% • Opt For Freeze at No Cost Given Freeze Grant of £190,000 for 2Years • Based on CLG figures September • £48 billion to Find From? • All about the Future North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

6. 2014/15 – 2017/18 • 2% Pay p.a • 3% pa increase in Council Tax • Grant profile -5.4%, -5% -5.% then disappears as Business rates takeover • General Non Staff Costs Pressures 2%p.a • £2.5m savings delivered by end of 2015/16 • Again Based on DCLG figures September North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

7. The New Retained Business Rates System • “Top Up” or “Tariff” • 2% For Fire – 50% to Government so 1% • Consider Growth and Yield • Authority will be a “Top Up” authority • Estimates based on 2012 suggest £2.9m RBR, £8.3m Top Up • 33% of Authority Finance • Key is Start Up/Baseline Funding 2013/14 North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

8. Half Full • “The Tariffs and Top Ups established through this process will be fixed until the next reset (possibly 2020) only rising annually in line with September’s Retail Price Index. This mirrors the arrangements whereby the non domestic rating multipliers are indexed to September’s RPI” (DCLG October 2012) (TABLE) North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

9. Half Empty • “Chief Executives of 14 Major Retailers call for a freeze in Business rates” (Financial Times October 2012) North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

10. Reserves • Could be crucial in Managing Funding from 2015/2016 to 2022/23 • Maximum Estimated Drawing £5m over that 7 Year Period as New System grows • Minimum Estimated Drawing £3.5m • Depends (mainly) on Baseline Funding • Council Tax Increases of 3% • RPI 2% • No Further Savings North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

11. Conclusions • Still Much to be Determined • Increase Council Tax for 2013/2014 by 2.0% • Or Freeze Council Tax For 2013/2014 • Manageable Either Way • “Acceptable” Level of Council Tax increase 2014/2015? • 2020 Reset should give space for new system North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

12. Strategy/Options • Statutory Duty of Best Value • Compliance – Need to Do? • Cost Control • Rationalisation • General Savings and Efficiency Drives • Reserves and/or Council Tax • Business Engagement • Service Development North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service

13. Remember Remember • The 5th of December • And the 12th (Possibly) • And the 19th (Maybe) • And the 31st of January • And possibly some dates in February by when all (hopefully) will have been revealed……. North Yorkshire Fire & Rescue Service