Making the Visions of Energy Transitions Reality in Canada: a ‘Pipe’ Dream or Actuality?

1. Making the Visions of Energy Transitions Reality in Canada: a ‘Pipe’ Dream or Actuality? • February 19, 2014 • Canadian Association of the Club of Rome • Alexandra Mallett • Assistant Professor, Carleton University | alexandra.mallett@carleton.ca

2. OVERVIEW • Context / Drivers • Visions or Pathways • Key Tensions • Pathways for Canada • Implications

6. Why sustainable energy? Climate Change

7. Why SE? Energy Security

8. Why SE? Inequality

9. Why SE? Rethinking Economic Growth

12. Why SE? Local Pollution

13. Many agree on the need for systematic change • How to contend with change? • Forecasts, long term strategies, transitions, visions, pathways • IPCC, other climate models, Stern report • Shell Scenarios • World Energy Outlook • Low carbon development pathways • Transitions Management / MLP (Geels, Meadowcroft) BUT tensions

14. Technology versus Behaviour • Centralized versus Decentralized • National / global versus Regional / local • Private sector versus Public Sector versus Grassroots / Civil Society • Radical versus Incremental

15. Source: Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy, McKinsey & Company

17. Where does Canada fit? • 2 % of global GHG emissions; 20.3T of CO2e emissions / capita (2010 – Conference Board of Canada – 15 of 17 OECD countries) • Power Per Capita (3rd highest) 1871 W / person (2011) • 82% of GHG emissions in Canada are energy – related (NRTEE 2009)

18. Energy in Canada • Sarkey Chart

19. Sources of electricity generation in 2012 across Canada and across Ontario, including industrial sources (StatsCan)

20. Canada – a microcosm of these tensions

21. ONE VISION • Incremental, centralized, technology and private-sector driven • ANOTHER VISION • Radical, behaviour (systemic), decentralized, civil society / grassroots • Mutually exclusive or can they co-exist? • Lock-in, path dependency • Means to bring about transition

22. Role of Technology – Trends and Experiences • Specifically sustainable energy technology • Urgency (climate change, voracious appetite for NR in era of increasing scarcity) • Public good – govts can take the ‘long view’, bear much of the costs (Superstorm Sandy, Deepwater Horizon, ice storm and floods in Canada, UK) • Often technologies are immature / less known in settings • Technology Approach so far: focus on output

24. What is happening? Bulk of activity – private sector Channels - are changing • JVs and subsidiaries and licenses (Tata BP solar, GE, GM) • BUT also acquiring majority share or outright purchase of Northern firms (Reva, Suzlon / Goldwind) • Movement from technology transfer to cooperation - perceptions are changing • India – emerged as a key destination for offshore corporate R&D (Herstatt et al. 2008)

25. Innovation and Innovators are changing • Leadbeater (2005) “special people in special places” • Sociedade do Sol and frugal innovation (MacGuyver) • Termed jugaad in Hindi, gambiarra in Brazil, etc.; an “innovative fix; an improvised solution based on ingenuity and cleverness” (see Radjou et al. 2012); pro-poor innovation (Kaplinsky 2011) • http://www.sociedadedosol.org.br/en/presentation.htm • Open innovation • Non-linear innovation • R&D in the South – to North (GE and GM)

28. Technology as an enabler?

29. Technology as a divider?

30. Role of Public Policy – Trends and Experiences • Assumption – Conventional Economic Theory Won’t Work • Direct Policy Levers (e.g. Feed in Tariff)– Green Energy and Green Economy Act 2009 in Ontario – bold but ramifications – why? • Importance of Policy Learning (‘Adder’ in ON FIT) • Nudge – Behavioural Economics - UK’s Office of Behavioural Insights • Comprehensive – approach issue systematically (sticks, carrots, sermons, ‘hybrid’ state and non-state) • Working with nature – ‘soft’ adaptation (water governance) • Innovation – SDTC • Working with private sector (Green Bonds in ON)

31. Society • Technology and behaviour – smart meters, appliances • Merging / cross fertilization with disciplines (our program at Carleton) • Education – recycling • Change incentives – Suburban sprawl – developers, city planners, architects, construction industry • Process – community engagement, ownership – Constitutionally-bound (Aboriginals – Aboriginal Power – C. Henderson 2013) • Opportunities when actors, technologies, policies ‘less entrenched’ • Role of Media – ‘framing’, shaping debates

32. Implications • More attention needed on the processes involved in energy transitions • Things happening but public policy action needed (esp. SMEs) • Engaging local partners (early on, more meaningful ways) • Policy ‘windows’ –build on momentum, less entrenched • Re-conceptualizing conventional concepts (innovators and innovation) • South-North: China / India – Germany, Canada; Subsidiary to HQ (India to US) and South – South: Brazil and India (biomass; ‘unfinished’ adapted), Sociedade do Sol – intl cooperation;

33. Questions? • Acknowledgements: Carleton, LSE, U of Sussex, TERI, Alex Beliaev - SDTC • Alexandra Mallett • Assistant Professor, Carleton University | alexandra.mallett@carleton.ca