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Analysis of the 10 July 2002 St. Cloud, Minnesota Flash Flood Event

Analysis of the 10 July 2002 St. Cloud, Minnesota Flash Flood Event. Justin Turcotte 5 April 2003. Images of the Flood. Images from St. Cloud Times, 11 July 2002. What Happened?. Significant amount of rain in a very short amount of time Rain fell on already saturated ground

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Analysis of the 10 July 2002 St. Cloud, Minnesota Flash Flood Event

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  1. Analysis of the 10 July 2002St. Cloud, Minnesota Flash Flood Event Justin Turcotte 5 April 2003

  2. Images of the Flood Images from St. Cloud Times, 11 July 2002

  3. What Happened? • Significant amount of rain in a very short amount of time • Rain fell on already saturated ground • SCSU (near STC): 4.29”, 2.70” within 1hr 45 min • AXN: 3.52”, Inch an hour for three hours From St. Cloud Times 2002

  4. Month’s Worth of Rain in One Day • The St. Cloud area average July precipitation is 3.38” • Event followed above average June precipitation • Saturated soil

  5. METAR from Alexandria, MN • KAXN 100853Z AUTO 08017G25KT 3/4SM+TSRA BR BKN007 OVC019 19/19 A3000 RMK AO2 PK WND 09026/0817 LTG DSNT ALQDS TSE0757B05 SLP153 P0093 60104 T01940194 56021 • KAXN 100953Z AUTO 09013G21KT 1 1/4SM+TSRA BR OVC007 19/18 A3000 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQDS SLP151 P0119 T01890183 • KAXN 101053Z AUTO 10016G23KT 10SM BKN033 BKN060 OVC100 19/18 A2999 RMK AO2 PK WND 10029/1032 LTG DSNT E TSE38RAE44 SLP149 P0098 T01890178

  6. Soil Conditions June/July Images from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

  7. The K-Index • KI= (T850mb- T500mb) + Td850mb -(T700mb -Td700mb). • 0-15 No thunderstorms • 18-19 Thunderstorms unlikely • 20-25 Isolated thunderstorms • 26-30 Widely scattered thunderstorms • 30-35 Numerous thunderstorms • 36-39 Thunderstorms very likely • 40+ 100% chance of thunderstorms • MPX 1200z Sounding K = 38 (bet the farm!) from Sturtevant 1995

  8. Type “F”: Northwest Flow Ridge Riders

  9. http://locust.mmm.ucar.edu/case-selection/ Surface Radar Satellite

  10. Mosquito Breeding GroundLand of 10,000++ Lakes from St. Cloud Times 2002

  11. Storm ReportsJuly 9 - 10

  12. Summary • Abundant moisture throughout atmosphere • Moisture convergence over area • Strong 500 hPa vorticity advection • Upper-air divergence • Slow moving storms • Extreme intensity rainfall rates • Saturated ground • FLOOD

  13. Why did the lady go out doors with her purse open? Because she expected some change in the weather. http://www.kvue.com/weather/kids/funandgames/jokes.html

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