Patrick D. Nunn Pro Vice-Chancellor The University of the South Pacific

1. UNESCO/APMRN/USP Workshop on Climate Change Related MigrationSuva, 14th May 2009Climate Change and its Consequences for Oceania Patrick D. Nunn Pro Vice-Chancellor The University of the South Pacific

2. The reality of climate change • GLOBAL WARMING • Global temperatures rose by an average of just 0.5°C between 1890 and 1990. • Global temperatures are projected to rise between 1.4°C and 6.4°C between 1990 and 2100. • Maybe a twelve-fold acceleration. From IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 [B2 and A1F1 scenarios]

3. The reality of climate change • SEA-LEVEL RISE • Global sea level rose by an average of 15 cm between 1890 and 1990. • Sea level rose 4.3 cm between 1993 and 2007. • Global sea level is projected to rise as much as 120 cm between 1990 and 2100. • Maybe a nine-fold acceleration. From IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 [B2 and A1F1 scenarios] and 2009 revisions

4. Navuti Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji (2004): sea-level rise threatens to drown coastal settlements

5. 8th February 2005 Betio, Tarawa, Kiribati: king tides wash over islands

6. Nadi Town, Fiji, 2006: flooding becoming annual event

7. Recent coastal change, Majuro, Marshall Islands: sandy beaches disappearing because of sea-level rise

8. Organization of this Talk • Human responses to sea-level rise: the imperative for resettlement • Resettlement hotspots in the Pacific Islands region • What the future may hold

9. Part 1 Human responses to sea-level rise: the imperative for resettlement

10. “Climate change … can have serious implications for the economic well-being of human society”. • “Global efforts to address the problem [of climate change] remain weak and inadequate, even as changes in climate become more serious”. Address to the World Economic Forum, Davos by Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, IPCC Chairman,23rd January 2008

11. Adapting to rising sea level • Past responses • Construction of artificial shoreline structures

12. Adapting to rising sea level • Past responses • Construction of artificial shoreline structures

13. Adapting to rising sea level • Past responses • Construction of artificial shoreline structures • Shoreline revegetation

14. Adapting to rising sea level • Past responses • Construction of artificial shoreline structures • Shoreline revegetation • Resettlement (relocation)

15. Adapting to rising sea level • Past responses • Construction of artificial shoreline structures • Shoreline revegetation • Resettlement (relocation) Maloku Village, Moala Island, Fiji

16. Adapting to rising sea level • Past responses • Construction of artificial shoreline structures • Shoreline revegetation • Resettlement (relocation)

17. Resettlement (relocation) • The need for an individual or community to move from a highly vulnerable location to a less vulnerable one.

18. Naicabecabe Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji

19. Navuti Village, Moturiki Island, Fiji – at high tide

20. Resettlement (relocation) • The need for an individual or community to move from a highly vulnerable location to a less vulnerable one. • This need is based on the belief that the highly vulnerable location where an individual or community is located today will become more vulnerable in the future (not less so).

21. This is a view that makes sense to scientists but which is difficult to explain convincingly to less formally-educated persons.

22. It is also a view that people who have invested a lot of energy and money in the place they live want to reject.

23. Resettlement (relocation) • The need for an individual or community to move from a highly vulnerable location to a less vulnerable one. • This need is based on the belief that the highly vulnerable location where an individual or community is located today will become more vulnerable in the future (not less so). • So the biggest challenge at the moment surrounding this issue is denial.

24. One example of Denial • Settlements built on comparatively small and low islands • Inherently vulnerable Kiritimati (Christmas Island), Kiribati

25. One example of Denial • Settlements built on comparatively small and low islands • Inherently vulnerable • Structurally highly vulnerable • Many likely to become uninhabitable within 20 years. Luamotu, Funafuti, Tuvalu

26. Another example of Denial • New Orleans (USA)

27. New Orleans, USA Hurricane Katrina 2005

28. New Orleans (behind levees)

30. Another example of Denial • New Orleans (USA) • Shanghai (China)

31. Eastern China – huge numbers of people living on river deltas in cities like Shanghai. Deltas are sinking because of sediment compaction and dewatering (groundwater extraction). Flooding is becoming more frequent because of sinking, river-channel infilling, and sea-level rise. Shanghai, China: parts sunk 1.64 m between 1921-1992

32. Another example of Denial • New Orleans (USA) • Shanghai (China) • Nadi (Fiji)

35. Nadi Town, 2007 Photos courtesy of the Fiji Times

36. Flood impact on infrastructure Flood impact on agriculture (Labasa)

37. Around Nadi Nabila Village – shoreline erosion

38. Around Nadi Eluvuka (Treasure Island)

40. Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007

41. Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007

42. Short-term solutions – not sustainable in long-term Flooding in Nadi Town, Fiji – May 2007

43. Part 2 Resettlement hotspots in the Pacific Islands region

44. Resettlement hotspots in the Pacific Islands • Comparatively small and low islands (all of Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu plus large numbers of islands in the Cook Islands and French Polynesia) • Delta settlements (in most high-island countries) • All other low-lying coastal settlements • Lowland areas where key infrastructure is located or key activities are carried out (such as agriculture, manufacturing commerce)

46. Part 3 What the future may hold

47. General challenges for the 21st century in the Pacific Islands • Rapid population growth in some countries (or on some islands) – needs to be checked • Unsustainable use of natural resources (ocean resources, forests, mineral wealth, soils) – need to become sustainable • Governance and management that may lack sufficient authority to meet climate-change challenges

48. Climate-change challenges for the 21st century in the Pacific Islands • Sea-level rise. • Temperature rise. • Continued high frequency/intensity of tropical cyclones. • Continued El Niño (drought-producing) events every 3-5 years.

49. Climate-change challenges for the 21st century in the Pacific Islands • Sea-level rise. • Temperature rise. • Continued high frequency/intensity of tropical cyclones. • Continued El Niño (drought-producing) events every 3-5 years.

50. Temperature rise and disease spread • Disease-spreading insects will spread their range in a warmer world. • Malaria may spread. • Dengue outbreaks may become more frequent.